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Sun Sep 16, 2012, 10:23 AM

Obama leads 49 to 48 Rasmussen - if we count leaners

Rasmussen, alone among all polling companies on earth, finds an all time record high number of Americans saying they are Republicans, 37.6% compared to 33.3% Democrats. A lot of other pollsters find something like 5% to 9% more Dems than Republicans. I think only Rasmussen finds more Repubs than Dems. Of course the view of Repubs like Rasmussen is that folks who tell pollsters they are Democrats are obviously lying and need to be statistically eliminated from the sample as unreliable.

Since Rasmussen is alone in this view, since everyone else gets a lot more Democrats, relatively, it is possible he has overmeasured Republicans and his results are underestimating Obama support. In 2010, Nate Silver calculated Rasmussen was the least accurate polling firm that year and had a big fat bias overestimating the vote Republicans would get. I roughly calculate Ras' average overcounting of the Repub share of 2010 votes as three percent.

YET Obama is leading 49 to 48 at Rasmussen today Sept 16 if you count leaners. Of course Rasmussen would rather not count leaners, figuring they will write in Ross Perot, Johnny Depp or Michelle Bachman instead of voting for Romney or Obama I guess, so at Real Clear Politics it shows the result without leaners Romney 47 to Obama 46.

So Obama is leading even tho Rasmussen probably thinks you're lying to him if you say you're a democrat and tends to statistically throw you out of his poll to get to his champion high percent of Republicans.

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Reply Obama leads 49 to 48 Rasmussen - if we count leaners (Original post)
Cicada Sep 2012 OP
Blue Yorker Sep 2012 #1
Submariner Sep 2012 #2
progressivebydesign Sep 2012 #3
Blue Yorker Sep 2012 #5
Jack Rabbit Sep 2012 #4

Response to Cicada (Original post)

Sun Sep 16, 2012, 10:30 AM

1. Rasmussen "Headlines Republican Fundraisers"

 

Below is the conflict of interest that makes Rasmussen a pollster to be ignored:

On his website and during interviews, Scott Rasmussen portrays himself as an "independent pollster" who doesn't have a stake in the fortunes of either political party. Yet Rasmussen, who has been criticized for producing polling that favors conservatives, recently headlined two Republican fundraisers.

On February 11, Rasmussen was the keynote speaker at the Twin Falls Lincoln Day Celebration, which benefited the Republican Party of Twin Falls County, Idaho. Ticket packages for the dinner ran from $75 for general seating to $2,5000 for an eight person "platinum table." Republicans could also attend a $250 "Private VIP Reception" with Rasmussen; buy an autographed copy of Rasmussen's book ($25); and take a picture with Rasmussen ($25).

Event chairwoman Mya Goodman told Media Matters in an email that the party paid Rasmussen a fee of $15,000 plus travel to speak and the party chose Rasmussen "because we felt that his topic would be interesting and relevant to the current election cycle."


http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/03/30/independent-pollster-scott-rasmussen-headlines/186270

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Sun Sep 16, 2012, 12:20 PM

2. Ras skews teabilly right, so at least +5 to 54-48

right wing poller = no credibility.

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Sun Sep 16, 2012, 12:32 PM

3. new DUers love Rassmussen's bad polling. lol

I mean this nicely. As a new DUer, what is the compulsion they have to post the worst polls?? It's like a virus. They always seem to post the Assmussen polls, which have been Romney-leaning since the beginning.

A better way to start your DU experience, is to focus on the positives... It's much more endearing.

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #3)

Sun Sep 16, 2012, 01:28 PM

5. anti-Newbie members curiously object to anti-Rasmussen criticism

 

Why do you hate anti-Rasmussen criticism? That's unlike good DU'ers.

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Sun Sep 16, 2012, 12:32 PM

4. Rusmussen should stop polling at the 19th hole of ritzy country clubs

Of course, that means that Rasmussen's polls show that the race is tight -- among Republicans. So, we may conclude that half of all Republicans currently say they're voting for Obama.

Now we know what the GOP's problem is: Sober conservatives who reject the hostile takeover of the party by the far right.

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