Gravis Marketing - New Polls - *Caution Advised*

RW Pollsters?

I just said that in my opening post. Did you read it?

Their previous poll showed Romney +3, so for Obama to be +4 is a change of 7 points.

Their previous poll showed Brown & Mandel Tied, so for Brown to be +6 is a change of 6 points.

This poll, even if it is from a Republican pollster, backs up the PPP poll (which is being called fake by the RW) because it shows a shift to Obama & Brown in OHIO.

You certainly are "into" polls, aren't you?

I'm just curious as to why this overarching fascination with polls from wherever you can get them?
What do they tell you that compels to post as many as you can find?
And what does it tell us about what Republicans are doing (like cheating and trying to manipulate the populace),
that we don't already know?

I think all of us are on this board, as are the political campaigns, the journalists, pollsters & much of the public. Your point? Ask Nate Silver if he's into polls.

I just explained above that their OHIO poll looks accurate and seems to validate the PPP poll. Isn't that good news?

to inflate and deflate the moods of voters.
What is certain is that polls will go and down daily,
and depending on which ones are chosen to highlight,
can cause consternation or euphoria in one camp or the other.

What polls are not, much of the time, is reliable....
especially if their methodology or their margin of error is not also highlighted.

I personally would much rather hear what method of GOTV efforts folks will sign up for
in their respective states in order to affect these polls.

I mean, truly. There's being a poll junkie, and there's being a fucking sucker, and you're tilting toward the latter of that. It is not Republican-leaning. It is a pure GOP front organization.

1. This is only the 2nd time I've posted their polls

2. I even put 'Caution' in the thread title so that people like you wouldn't freak out, and yet you did anyway

3. My posting history proves I'm as anti-Republican as you can get

4. As I explained above, this poll actually helps bolster the other polls showing an Obama gain in OHIO

5. The media downplays the PPP polls by attacking them as a Democratic pollster, so when Republican pollsters show good news for Obama it's worthwhile discussing them

6. Other posters here agree that we need to look at all data out there to see how it is influencing the narrative

7. Nate Silver himself says all data must be analyzed, even if it may have a bias

If you don't want to read certain polls, you don't have to. But you can't decide for all of us what polls we look at.

Whether we like it or not, these polls are on RCP and are now entered into the overall average. *Nate Silver* also puts them on his website! Perhaps you should send your concerns to him? They're a reality we have to deal with. I've worked on many political campaigns, and we keep an eye on everything that is being published. It doesn't help to be asked about a poll by the media, and not know how to respond because you've had your eyes shut and not looked at it.

Now we now their latest numbers and will know what to say when articles come out about them.

And although the VIRGINIA poll is not good, the OHIO poll is. Let's focus on that.

or a straight out troll, or just a fucking dupe, but when you post Gravis as if it's legitimate and not a shitty GOP PR operation, I'm going to call it out, and when you soft sell it as "leaning" in some weird attempt to legitimize these cretins, I'm going to get on record in the thread that it is an out and out Rove front group.

Perhaps this is the question to ask ... "which poll averaging sites include this pollster"??

I don't know ... Do you know?

As I mentioned above.

As I also stated above, there's no need for the poster above to get so angry anyway. Their OHIO poll helps give credibility to the PPP poll (which has been attacked by the RW media).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

In science, one is not allowed to throw out data. If you do, you're not going to get your paper published. Scientists are aware that all data is biased. Only by including it all do the biases have any chance of canceling out.

Ignoring data, for instance Rasmussen, biases your analysis because you still include putatively Democratic leaning polls.

Nate is correct. All data is important because it's all biased.

1. I mentioned in the original post that this is a pollster that is Republican-leaning (so there was no attempt to hide that)

2. Rational, calm people who work on political campaigns know that you need to keep an eye on both the good polls & bad polls

3. Whether we like it or not, the Gravis poll has become part of the RCP average and the Nate Silver 538 average and we need to know this

4. Although their Virginia poll is questionable, I posted their polls today because the media narrative today is that the PPP Ohio poll can't be trusted since it is from a Democratic firm, so the good news is this Republican pollster has numbers which are almost identical and will make it harder for people to insult the PPP poll

Thanks for your response.

A "f***** sucker" would not call the Virginia "questionable." If you read past the title, you would make more sense. It is possible that you did not even read the entire title, since TroyD advised caution. A sucker would not have been cautious.

So we have 2 polls showing an average of a 7-point lead for Brown.

You will find the other poll for Brown that I posted earlier on the main page.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

RealClearPolitics has already rolled this poll into its averages & I think Nate Silver wrote that he uses all of them although he attempts to normalize for house effect & bias. So a PPP Virginia poll next week may help the averages skewed by a suspect poll.

TroyD is right to (cautiously) point to these polls because they did get picked up at least by RCP which unfortunately does get referenced by the MSM.

Perhaps it is possible that Romney is going up there. He and Ryan did hold their V.P. announcement there, and they have been camped out a lot in VA lately. I think they know how important the state is to Romney.

They've been bashing Obama in Virginia as being anti-military and in favor of huge defense cuts etc.

The whole V.P. campaign launch in Virginia was such a fraud to begin with because neither Romney nor Ryan have military experience (and Romney was basically hiding out in France during the Vietnam War) and yet they appeared on a battleship etc. in order to give the image of them as big military guys.

Total nonsense.

Not everything you read needs to get posted on Politics 2012.

The new SurveyUSA poll, according to Nate Silver, shows 30% of African-Americans in NC voting for Romney.

Seems the Repuke pollsters are trying their best to minimize a clear bounce for Obama.

Thanks for the correction.

Survey USA is only as reliable as who they are working for.