Sat Sep 8, 2012, 06:54 PM

RedSpartan (1,133 posts)

Nate Silver: Obama now almost at 80% win probability.

Current prediction: 316.9 EVs, 79.8% chance of winning:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

53 replies, 8195 views

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53 replies	Author	Time	Post
Nate Silver: Obama now almost at 80% win probability. (Original post)	RedSpartan	Sep 2012	OP
Now we're talking. Great news. I still want it to be 100%.	Booster	Sep 2012	#1
I don't think you get to 100% until a few days after the election.	tclambert	Sep 2012	#35
Oh, ok then, I want 95% now. lol	Booster	Sep 2012	#39
Chuck Todd would call this "a toss up"	Doctor Jack	Sep 2012	#2
ha ha ha the Toadster is feeling uncomfy	flamingdem	Sep 2012	#3
Poor Chuck	Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin	Sep 2012	#12
LOL	SunSeeker	Sep 2012	#15
Who is this man, Chuck Todd? Should I know of him?	jonthebru	Sep 2012	#32
Host of 'The Daily Rundown' on MSNBC	fleur-de-lisa	Sep 2012	#33
Yeah....	ProudToBeBlueInRhody	Sep 2012	#40
Inevitability is great, but let's not get lazy	flamingdem	Sep 2012	#4
reverse logic-We should shout it aloud all day long-Obama has it won	graham4anything	Sep 2012	#8
I agree the momentum is excellent and will help for sure with undecideds	flamingdem	Sep 2012	#10
That's called the bandwagon effect.	tclambert	Sep 2012	#36
at some point, even billionaires come to their senses	graham4anything	Sep 2012	#45
Thanks for the link. Hadn't seen that one before.	tclambert	Sep 2012	#50
this site has been accurate both in 04 and 08	graham4anything	Sep 2012	#51
Princeton Election Consortuim is also great:	RedSpartan	Sep 2012	#52
wow - throughout the day this has improved significantly - even Now cast.	NRaleighLiberal	Sep 2012	#5
you must be psychic!	tomm2thumbs	Sep 2012	#43
if so, I need to find a way to make some $$$ on such talent!	NRaleighLiberal	Sep 2012	#47
Plus 76.9% in the "Now-cast"...	regnaD kciN	Sep 2012	#6
Agree 100%. Was very glad to see that as well.	RedSpartan	Sep 2012	#7
What is Now-cast? Thx! Nt	PCIntern	Sep 2012	#9
That's the prediction of who would win if the election was held right now	Marsala	Sep 2012	#11
Has anyone thought that perhaps Karl Rove and the Koch Bothers	INdemo	Sep 2012	#13
WooHoo!	applegrove	Sep 2012	#14
Mandate, landslide,	safeinOhio	Sep 2012	#16
A girl can only dream......	kalli007	Sep 2012	#21
Obligatory intrade	BumRushDaShow	Sep 2012	#17
Does he forecast Senate and House races?	OneGrassRoot	Sep 2012	#18
I wish I could vote Democrat all the way!	Kteachums	Sep 2012	#22
Even a blue dog boosts the number of Dems vs. Republicans.	gkhouston	Sep 2012	#48
One Grass is right!	thelarge	Sep 2012	#19
If everybody gets your behinds out there and vote!	Kteachums	Sep 2012	#20
This message was hidden by jury decision.	honestgrifter	Sep 2012	#23
I have been watching Intrade and Romney's chances went down after the Republican Convention	Quixote1818	Sep 2012	#24
Has Nate Silver ever been wrong? nt	Quixote1818	Sep 2012	#25
It's hard to say since he puts everything in terms of probabilities.	tclambert	Sep 2012	#37
I guess the only state he missed in the last election was Indiana which Obama won by 1 point nt	Quixote1818	Sep 2012	#38
Not only do we need to support Obama...	tarheelsunc	Sep 2012	#26
I get what you are saying, but could we please limit the	truedelphi	Sep 2012	#30
Polls are one thing...	RoccoR5955	Sep 2012	#27
Obama's poll numbers sugggest his beggest supporters are among the youngest	truedelphi	Sep 2012	#31
they were back in '08 also	RoccoR5955	Sep 2012	#41
We still need to work hard! Register people to vote and Get Out The Vote!!!!!	LongTomH	Sep 2012	#28
Does he calculate the probablity of Repub Secretaries of State and poll workers cheating??	Maineman	Sep 2012	#29
Any links to what the upcoming elections might mean for the House though? After all if the	cstanleytech	Sep 2012	#34
Some bad news - his numbers just went down	tomm2thumbs	Sep 2012	#42
80.7%	krawhitham	Sep 2012	#44
I just saw that. GOOD NEWS!	MNBrewer	Sep 2012	#46
And today, electoral-vote.com has it 347-191...	No DUplicitous DUpe	Sep 2012	#49
This tends to happen when the other candidate hides all his views	EdwardKingSolomon	Sep 2012	#53

Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:07 PM

Booster (9,872 posts)

1. Now we're talking. Great news. I still want it to be 100%.

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Response to Booster (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 08:51 PM

tclambert (5,528 posts)

35. I don't think you get to 100% until a few days after the election.

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Response to tclambert (Reply #35)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 09:36 PM

Booster (9,872 posts)

39. Oh, ok then, I want 95% now. lol

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:11 PM

Doctor Jack (788 posts)

2. Chuck Todd would call this "a toss up"

And then talk about how Obama is slipping with Southern white males between 55-57 named Steven.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #2)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:17 PM

flamingdem (22,658 posts)

3. ha ha ha the Toadster is feeling uncomfy

where'd da horsey race go?

My masters will not be pleased.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #2)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:30 PM

Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (6,600 posts)

12. Poor Chuck

Trying so hard to grow a chin.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Reply #12)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:43 PM

SunSeeker (4,995 posts)

15. LOL

Yeah, him and Mitch McTurtle.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 07:07 PM

jonthebru (959 posts)

32. Who is this man, Chuck Todd? Should I know of him?

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Response to jonthebru (Reply #32)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 07:39 PM

fleur-de-lisa (1,598 posts)

33. Host of 'The Daily Rundown' on MSNBC

No, you should not know of him . . . he is a pus-bucket.

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Response to jonthebru (Reply #32)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:41 PM

ProudToBeBlueInRhody (10,300 posts)

40. Yeah....

....he's the chubby goateed goof on MSNBC who's usually got a sour puss for having to hang out with a bunch of liberals.

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:18 PM

flamingdem (22,658 posts)

4. Inevitability is great, but let's not get lazy

there are tricks being pulled as we speak and we need congress or it'll be the same obstructionist crap

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #4)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:53 PM

graham4anything (9,111 posts)

8. reverse logic-We should shout it aloud all day long-Obama has it won

Americans like a winner and a good number of people will flock to Obama if it is inevitable, because if one thinks it close, they may think Mitt got a chance. If they know Obama will win, they won't waste their vote on a losing Mitt. Thereby getting us more coattails and the house and senate

and Mitt won't steal states, because the people that steal elections are not running this time, but waiting for 2016.

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #8)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:10 PM

flamingdem (22,658 posts)

10. I agree the momentum is excellent and will help for sure with undecideds

I remember how many people got lazy in 2010, they need prodding, lots of lower ballot issues too

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #8)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 08:54 PM

tclambert (5,528 posts)

36. That's called the bandwagon effect.

It affects campaign donations, too. At some point, the Koch brothers will say, "This Romney guy is a waste of money." Well, maybe not the Kochs. They're nuts and too rich to notice the waste of a couple hundred million.

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Response to tclambert (Reply #36)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 07:22 AM

graham4anything (9,111 posts)

45. at some point, even billionaires come to their senses

one day Fox won't be Fox when Murdoch retires, as his heirs and stockholders will demand real profits be made, not a vanity production

the Koch brothers are the same, eventually enough will be enough and they will focus on 2014

in the end, these a hole billionaires need a return of their investment, it is all about the money after all

Did you see electoral-vote.com today
Rmoney down to 191 and Obama is up to 347 (that means 77 above the 270 needed)

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #45)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:39 PM

tclambert (5,528 posts)

50. Thanks for the link. Hadn't seen that one before.

I check out http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ and http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html and http://www.270towin.com/
from time to time. http://electoral-vote.com/ is new to me.

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Response to tclambert (Reply #50)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 10:18 PM

graham4anything (9,111 posts)

51. this site has been accurate both in 04 and 08

the person behind the site is I think a professor living overseas who has done this the last 2 elections (2004 and 2008), at his own expense and his combining polls has been the single most correct of any of them.

What I really like now is how just recently electoral-vote.com started a rasmussen free look, which shows bad outliers from rasmussen(which skewers and is owned by a guy who works for Fox now).

(there is a link on the left showing that.)

And I like his commentary. He normally is not active in between auctions

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Response to tclambert (Reply #50)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 10:21 PM

RedSpartan (1,133 posts)

52. Princeton Election Consortuim is also great:

http://election.princeton.edu/

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:21 PM

NRaleighLiberal (28,577 posts)

5. wow - throughout the day this has improved significantly - even Now cast.

my guess is that tomorrow/Monday we cross the 80% line.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #5)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 11:44 PM

tomm2thumbs (9,176 posts)

43. you must be psychic!

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Response to tomm2thumbs (Reply #43)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:09 AM

NRaleighLiberal (28,577 posts)

47. if so, I need to find a way to make some $$$ on such talent!

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:22 PM

regnaD kciN (17,427 posts)

6. Plus 76.9% in the "Now-cast"...

...which, I'd argue, is potentially the more significant number.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #6)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:28 PM

RedSpartan (1,133 posts)

7. Agree 100%. Was very glad to see that as well.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #6)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:05 PM

PCIntern (13,844 posts)

9. What is Now-cast? Thx! Nt

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Response to PCIntern (Reply #9)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:22 PM

Marsala (2,086 posts)

11. That's the prediction of who would win if the election was held right now

It doesn't project into the future and account for possible changes.

Obama's Nowcast numbers would probably be even higher if we had more post-convention polling available.

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:20 PM

INdemo (3,160 posts)

13. Has anyone thought that perhaps Karl Rove and the Koch Bothers

could soon be pulling money away from Romney and concentrating more on the Senate and House races?..Winning the House back is not unreasonable thinking???
If you look at the electoral map Rmoney would have to sweep 8 toss up states to win assuming that Obama does not win VA. or Florida. 80%? I think that would be pretty accurate.

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:36 PM

applegrove (58,376 posts)

14. WooHoo!

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:53 PM

safeinOhio (7,465 posts)

16. Mandate, landslide,

public support for liberal ideas, a swing to the left for the country, pissed off racist and homophobes.

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Response to safeinOhio (Reply #16)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:38 AM

kalli007 (625 posts)

21. A girl can only dream......

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:58 PM

BumRushDaShow (11,955 posts)

17. Obligatory intrade

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)

* 57.0%

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012
Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)

* 42.9%

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 08:39 AM

OneGrassRoot (18,729 posts)

18. Does he forecast Senate and House races?

I feel confident President Obama will be re-elected, but we need people to vote for the Democratic ticket all the way.

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Response to OneGrassRoot (Reply #18)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:42 AM

Kteachums (331 posts)

22. I wish I could vote Democrat all the way!

I don't know about all the way. In WV we have Democrats that have sided against the President on many issues. I may just vote for him and leave the rest of the ballot blank. Our politicians are turning the state against Obama. Our political system in this state has always been ify. I know that we need Dems in office to help our President but, all Dems don't help him. Some oppose him. Remember the Blue Dogs of healthcare? It saddens me to have to say this.

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Response to Kteachums (Reply #22)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:16 AM

gkhouston (21,642 posts)

48. Even a blue dog boosts the number of Dems vs. Republicans.

Last edited Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:16 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

Don't just think of what a yahoo you've got running as a Dem in your district... remember committee chairs will go to the party with the most members. In the words of a local Dem I used to know, "He may be a butt, be he's our butt."

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 09:34 AM

thelarge (23 posts)

19. One Grass is right!

Time for a sweep! Down ticket neocons will have to go in order for the economy to recover. They spend too much time and money on non-issues!

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:35 AM

Kteachums (331 posts)

20. If everybody gets your behinds out there and vote!

Don't believe this until the day comes when we can all celebrate. My grandmother used to say; "Don't count your chickens until they hatch". We will march to victory singing "Glory, glory, alleluia"!!!!!

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

honestgrifter This message was hidden by Jury decision.

Response to honestgrifter (Reply #23)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 01:40 PM

Quixote1818 (16,562 posts)

24. I have been watching Intrade and Romney's chances went down after the Republican Convention

and down even more after the Democratic Convention. They have Obama with a 58.2% chance to win right now.

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 01:40 PM

Quixote1818 (16,562 posts)

25. Has Nate Silver ever been wrong? nt

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Response to Quixote1818 (Reply #25)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 09:10 PM

tclambert (5,528 posts)

37. It's hard to say since he puts everything in terms of probabilities.

If he ever went to 100% vs. 0%, then you could call him wrong. Giving an outcome as 80% probable means he still predicted either outcome COULD happen. How can you tell if he got the probabilities wrong when we end up with only one outcome? You'd have to compare the outcomes in 1,000 parallel universes.

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Response to tclambert (Reply #37)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 09:25 PM

Quixote1818 (16,562 posts)

38. I guess the only state he missed in the last election was Indiana which Obama won by 1 point nt

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 02:13 PM

tarheelsunc (1,239 posts)

26. Not only do we need to support Obama...

but I believe the secret to this election is to publicize the Gary Johnson campaign. If he steals even 2% of votes from Romney, then we should lock up a lot of key states. No liberal would vote for him I'm sure, but a lot of the unsure conservatives may see him as a welcome change.

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Response to tarheelsunc (Reply #26)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 02:43 PM

truedelphi (25,932 posts)

30. I get what you are saying, but could we please limit the

Use of the expression "steal" to the Republicans.

Third party candidates don't "Steal" votes. And the way the voting machinery is configured, the Dems won't be stealing votes either.

Better to say, that Johnson will capture votes from Romney than use the term the Republicans like to stick on Dems and others in terms of "stealing" the elections.

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 02:23 PM

RoccoR5955 (6,487 posts)

27. Polls are one thing...

We still have to get folks to the polls on Election day, to make SURE Obama wins.

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Response to RoccoR5955 (Reply #27)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 02:45 PM

truedelphi (25,932 posts)

31. Obama's poll numbers sugggest his beggest supporters are among the youngest

Voters - and that group is the least likely to show up on election day.

One way around this is to foster full "early voting mail in ballots" among all age groups in whatever area where you live.

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Response to truedelphi (Reply #31)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:52 PM

RoccoR5955 (6,487 posts)

41. they were back in '08 also

Just have to get them out to the polls.
I don't like vote by mail. There seems to be too many ways that the ballots could be filled out by someone other than the voter.

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 02:28 PM

LongTomH (3,986 posts)

28. We still need to work hard! Register people to vote and Get Out The Vote!!!!!

I'm doing voter registration every Saturday. I plan to work my ass off to GOTV in Oct and Nov.

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 02:42 PM

Maineman (582 posts)

29. Does he calculate the probablity of Repub Secretaries of State and poll workers cheating??

Reply to this post

Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 08:04 PM

cstanleytech (5,292 posts)

34. Any links to what the upcoming elections might mean for the House though? After all if the

Republicans still control the House after the election I wouldnt put it past them to be vindictive and make a 2nd term for Obama even worse than they have done to him in his first even if it means hurting innocent people.

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Response to RedSpartan (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 11:42 PM

tomm2thumbs (9,176 posts)