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Thu Sep 6, 2012, 01:59 AM

Nate Silver has Obama at 76.3 percent now

almost a 6 point climb since Aug. 29

6 replies, 1272 views

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Reply Nate Silver has Obama at 76.3 percent now (Original post)
Adenoid_Hynkel Sep 2012 OP
regnaD kciN Sep 2012 #1
jonthebru Sep 2012 #2
99th_Monkey Sep 2012 #4
davidpdx Sep 2012 #5
TroyD Sep 2012 #3
Skeptical George Sep 2012 #6

Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Thu Sep 6, 2012, 02:14 AM

1. Once again, that's based on the special formulas...

...designed to figure in convention bounces, and owes a lot to Rmoney's relatively tepid one. In the "now-cast" which doesn't factor bounce expectations in, Obama's re-election odds have dropped a couple of points, to 69%, which, I assume, would be where it would stand if Obama gets no convention bounce whatsoever -- still more than 2:1 odds, but a little less gaudy than the top-line numbers.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Thu Sep 6, 2012, 02:23 AM

2. The really sad thing for the right is...

that those who are going to vote for Rmoney are already going to vote for Rmoney. There really aren't many new voters to tap...
I'm personally hoping for a really kick ass landslide.
Remember though, certain states with their Corporatist governors are disenfranchising thousands of voters. If they can keep even a small percentage away from the polls however it can be done and they could win that state. Scary shit for sure.
Americans must prove to these clowns that our Presidency can't be purchased with lies.

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Response to jonthebru (Reply #2)

Thu Sep 6, 2012, 04:46 AM

4. "a really kick ass landslide" is exactly what it is going to take

to eek out a win, given
1) Citizens United,
2) Computerized voting controlled by GOP private corporations,
3) Massive voter suppression (show me your voting papers or fuck off)

But I do believe it is possible and it WILL happen.

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Response to 99th_Monkey (Reply #4)

Thu Sep 6, 2012, 05:25 AM

5. I agree, the idea of a landslide is a little far-fetched

There is sure to be shenanigans in some states which will affect the outcome.

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Thu Sep 6, 2012, 02:26 AM

3. Is that last night's percentage?

That sounds like the one I posted from Nate Silver last night.

Has he updated it tonight, or did it stay the same?

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Response to Adenoid_Hynkel (Original post)

Thu Sep 6, 2012, 06:51 AM

6. Silver has Obama winning 310.8 Electoral Votes as of Yesterday

 

An increase of 10.4 since August 29.

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