New battleground CBS polls

[Robbins]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-extends-iowa-lead-amid-strong-ratings-on-commander-in-chief/

Iowa-Clinton 50% Bernie 44% O'Malley 5%

NH-Bernie 52% Clinton 45% O'Malley 3%

SC- Clinton 72% Bernie 25% O'malley 2 %

Despite CBS attempt to spin things for clinton I take this as good news.

Bernie is still In the game for Iowa,and it's single digets race.Bernie still has lead In NH.As for SC let's talk after iowa and NH
have voted.at this time in 2007 Clinton had big lead In SC and obama won.

[Cali_Democrat]

1. "As for SC let's talk after iowa and NH"

Why do you wanna talk about Iowa and NH, but not South Carolina?

[longship]

8. Well, common sense.

IA and NH occur before SC.

It makes sense to wait and see.

Myself, I tend to ignore polls this far out. But I thought I would comment on your post, for no particular reason other than to engage in a reasonable discussion.

Note: I have no expressed dog in this race. I will vote for whichever candidate gets the nomination. I care which one, but will not express it as long as the toxic environment here exists.

My best to you, my friend.

[BootinUp]

2. Huge MOE on these polls. nt

[CoffeeCat]

10. But Bernie is within six in Iowa!!!!! His best YET!!!!

When Hillary had her summer of sad--Bernie was within 10.

Then, Clinton started leading again. She was up by as much as 24.

Now, those leads have evaporated.

Six!!! I can't get over it!!!

OMFG....Bernie is going to win Iowa!!!!!

Same exact thing happened to Obama and Hillary in Iowa in 2008.

Faith in humanity...RESTORED!!!!

[BootinUp]

17. Doesn't seem likely, the combination of high margin of error (low number of participants)

and wide variation from other recent polls, I would call this one an outlier. But we shall see.

[tex-wyo-dem]

35. Actually, IMO many of the post-first-debate polls...

Were outliers. Several pre-debate polls had Clinton and Sanders running neck and neck in IA and Sanders with a healthy double-digit lead in NH. Then suddenly, after the first debate, Clinton has a +20 pt lead in IA and passes Sanders in NH? Most bounces from debates are around 5, maybe 10 pts at the very most.

This poll makes much more sense.

[Volaris]

22. I wanna know what the overall margin of error is..

If its 5 or more, I'm in the patience is a virtue camp.
If it's less than that, I'll believe Bernie will win Iowa and NH, and come within hitting distance in SC, even if he doesn't pull a win there.

But yes it seems like good news.
Even if it isnt, I'm GLAD we're having a dynamic primary process on our side. It's a conversation that's overdue.

[tecelote]

28. Faith in humanity...RESTORED!!!!

Yes.

[Demeter]

3. Thanks for the facts, Robbins

I take it as good news, too. Like a Slinky walking down stairs, like an avalanche, like a force of Nature...like a revolution!

[CoffeeCat]

4. This is EXACTLY what happened to Hillary in 08!!

I have been waiting for a recent Iowa poll.

Because really, the national polls are meaningless. We don't have a Democratic national primary, we have states voting one by one.

Iowa turned the 08 race on its ear. Hillary was the inevitable one during all of 2008. All we heard, from the Hillary camp was that Hilly was "inevitable". Voting for Obama and Edwards was a waste. They would site poll after poll after poll after poll after poll--showing Hillary leading nationally--some by 40 points.

She was ahead Iowa by 20+ points for a long time

Here's the kicker. On October 26, 2014--an American Research Group poll showed Obama within 10 points of Hillary. That date was ten weeks before the Iowa caucuses. Exactly where we are today. And this 2015 poll by CBS News shows Sanders within 6. SIX!!!!!!!

I have been screaming that the trajectory is the same.

OMFG...

Hillary may have the endorsements. She may have the media on her side, and possibly some skewed polls. My Iowa peeps are coming through, just as they did for Obama in 2008.

I'm telling you--she does not play well here. Support for her is soft. People are not enthusiastic for her. They'll vote for her, because she's there and she's touted as inevitable--but when they learn about Bernie and hear his message, they start defecting.

Oh my god this is beautiful. Thank you Iowa. I knew you wouldn't let me down again.

[Robbins]

6. I agree

I see the race as 2008 redux.Obama was polling lower in national polls than bernie was now,and while bernie often leads In NH,Obama led in eather.

Back in 2008 first time voters,independents,and crossover support helped Obama win Iowa.

There are defently skewed polls for her.they do it by underpolling under 50 year olds and independents.a poll having iowa in single diget led for her i can take seriously.I can't take polls with double diget leds In Iowa or NH for her seriously.

While i dismiss national polls based on expercence there has been improvement for bernie in both NBC and ABC polls.

Even In Iowa lead here people view her as too close to wall street and bernie as the change candiate.

I think Clinton's support is soft.it is based on name id,and being feed only she can win.

Back in 2008 they were saying obama could draw crowds but they wouldn't vote for him.that was proven wrong.

The results of IowaYouthcaucus tell me first time voters who opt to vote In the Caucus are heavily going to go for Bernie.

[Hepburn]

11. Back then the HRC coronation went off track...deja vu all over again! n/t

[Divernan]

29. Me, Snoopy & Yogi Berra - doin' the Deja Vu Happy Dance!

nt

[Godhumor]

15. Find one poll from IA where Hillary was ahead by +20 in 2007

Here is the RCP data for 2008

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

I'll wait.

[CoffeeCat]

27. Yep...I stand corrected. I was looking at a national CBS poll (nt)

[AlbertCat]

32. but when they learn about Bernie and hear his message, they start defecting.

Imagine if there had been more debates....when people wanted to watch them.


And of course should Clinton win the primary, Sanders has still started something.

[Jarqui]

5. I don't have much faith in the accuracy of this pollster

That or the method they're using. Something isn't quite right.

They seem to be an outlier consistently favoring Sanders.

This is coming from a Bernie supporter.

The trend for Sep, Oct, Nov in each of NH, SC & Iowa is that Clinton has improved her margin against Sanders each month.

I think that is more significant than the actual numbers they publish though, one again, we need to see if Bernie can regain his nibbling away on her lead now that Biden supporters have settled.

[Robbins]

9. I don't believe CBS is favoring bernie

besides it was pointed out on reddit that CBS didn't mention independents In this polls.

CBS is spinning it for her so you can hardly say they are biased towards bernie.

[Jarqui]

13. I'm not accusing them of bias

I'm not positive why they seem to be off everyone else. I suppose everyone else could be wrong ... though I doubt that.

Nate Silver didn't have YouGov ranked that well C+
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

[Robbins]

14. I know yougov is flawed

But why is it you assume it being flawed is bias towards bernie.their flawed may be biased towards Clinton.In 2012 they were biased towards republicans.

[Jarqui]

18. They're just a pretty consistent outlier

Iowa
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

They have Clinton currently +6 to RealClears Clinton +24 average
They had Clinton +3 in October when others were moving Clinton into a double digit lead
They had Sanders +10 in September when the second closest poll ever was Sanders+1

All three of their polls in Iowa favor Sanders relative to other polls and are on the outside edge of results

New Hampshire
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

They have Sanders currently +7 to RealClears Clinton +7.7 average
They had Sanders +15 in October when others had Clinton with a single digit lead
They had Sanders +22 which is the highest ever by 7 pts

All three of their polls in NH favor Sanders relative to other polls and are on the outside edge of results

South Carolina
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

They have Clinton currently +48 to RealClears Clinton +52.7 average
They had Clinton +43 in October - which is the only "normal" looking results out of the 9 polls
They had Clinton +23 in Sept which was lower than the other polls for Clinton at that time

Two of three of their polls in SC favor Sanders relative to other polls and are on the outside edge of results

8 of 9 of their state polls favor Sanders relative to other polls and are on the outside edge of results

[CoffeeCat]

12. The last CBS poll had Hillary beating Bernie by 19 in Iowa

The November 6 CBS poll had Clinton at 52; Bernie 33.

Clinton was winning by 19.

[Rose Siding]

19. No, that was a national poll

The last Iowa poll CBS did was Oct 22. Her lead was 3 pts in that one. In this one it increases to 6 pts.

[CoffeeCat]

24. Yes, you are right--I was quoting a national poll

I am wrong and you are right.

Hillary was ahead by 19, in a CBS poll--but this was a national poll though.

Sorry for the confusion.

[Godhumor]

21. Got a link? The last CBS/YouGov poll was mid-October. Clinton was +3

Looking through Pollster and RCP, there is no reference to the numbers you've posted.

[CoffeeCat]

25. Yep. Mistake on my part. I was citing a national poll (nt)

[Godhumor]

26. Ah, no worries. N/t

[BlueCheese]

37. I agree with you.

Just to elaborate on your comment, for those who may not have read more: YouGov uses an Internet-driven methodology where they have some large pre-selected group of respondents, and then choose what they think is a representative sample from that, with some demographic controls. I wonder how they try to control for the fact that the demographic of people who would participate in these things is different from the population at large. I also have the same skepticism about pollsters like Morning Consult, whose methodologies are similar but whose results seem to favor Clinton more.

I agree with you that in this case, it's better to look at trendlines.

[Jarqui]

38. I have been looking at demographics for the last while

I do not have a number but my impression is that in general (when they have been provided by the pollster and not necessarily without exception because I haven't checked very poll), the demographics might favor Clinton - particularly by age. I do not think they're miles off but the demographics probably move the results a few points. My starting point was what the demographics of the 2012 vote were for Obama and allow that maybe not as much youth will get involved. The flaw might be that since Hillary seems to do better with older people, that might shift the 2016 demographics some.

[Godhumor]

7. You realize Clinton does better in these polls than the last time CBS conducted them, right?

Went from +3 in Iowa to +6 (+3 net).

Went from -13 to -7 in NH (+6 net)

Went from +43 to +57 in SC (+14 net)

As pollsters talk about their own polls in isolation from all others, they weren't spinning it for Hillary. She has improved in all three states.

[Rose Siding]

20. So her lead in Iowa doubled

[OilemFirchen]

16. Why doesn't Bernie get a last name?

I'd think at his age he deserves one, don't you?

[demwing]

23. It's his brand!

[OilemFirchen]

30. Oh I see.

Will he be marketing cosmetics as well?

How outre!

[demwing]

31. If he did, I'd buy them

and give them to you for Christmas.

you're welcome...

[OilemFirchen]

33. Chanukah.

But something tells me you'd eat them before you had a chance to send them.

Thanks anyway!

[demwing]

39. Why the snarc?

have I offended you in some way?

[NCTraveler]

34. So Clinton has increased her lead in each of these states.....

when compared to this pollsters results last time it was taken? Seems Clinton is gradually ticking up by the metrics you are offering.

[WI_DEM]

36. Hillary extended her lead in this poll in IA and cut Bernie's lead in half in NH

So with this poll it is actually HRC who is gaining ground not Bernie.