LACK of Enthusiasm From Supporters May Undermine Clinton’s Lead

[Segami]

Ready For Hillary.....Meh.......


There’s cause for concern in Hillaryland, the constellation of Democratic advisers, supporters and politicians counting on the former secretary of state to lead the party to a sweeping victory next November. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s nomination is almost a foregone conclusion, barring any unlikely legal or health issues. Democrats will offer a more coherent and unified front for the general election than the fractious Republicans. Still, this optimism is based on the presumed weakness of the opposition, and ignores what polling suggests could be the candidate’s own vulnerabilities.


The worries of some Clinton insiders are focused on the general election. There is an “enthusiasm gap.” Surveys of voters at this early stage of the campaign show that young people, independents, possibly even blacks and Hispanics are not excited about her candidacy. To be sure, a number of women, especially middle-aged ones, are energized by the prospect of electing the first female president of the United States. That’s a strong asset. But Mrs. Clinton has a striking problem with young voters. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed that a solid plurality of young voters has a negative view of Mrs. Clinton. She did even worse in a Bloomberg Politics national poll.


Here is a result to unnerve her Brooklyn campaign headquarters: Both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton get a 60 percent favorable rating with 18-to-29-year-olds. She gets 35 percent approval and 57 percent unfavorable. In the last presidential election, 19 percent of the voters were in that age cohort, which Mr. Obama won, 60 percent to 37 percent, providing his overall margin. There was a substantial decline in the number of young voters in the off-year elections, probably costing Democrats a couple Senate seats; a similar drop-off in 2016 might be decisive in a close election. Mrs. Clinton also has big problems with independent voters. In the nomination contest, she’s running well ahead of her chief challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. But she loses to him among Democratic-leaning independents. Over all, independents are negative about her by a margin of better than 3-to-2. In 2012, almost three in 10 voters were independents, and Mr. Obama came close to splitting that vote with Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate. There is little doubt that Mrs. Clinton easily would defeat any Republican among blacks and Hispanics. It’s far from certain, however, that these voters would be motivated to turn out in as large numbers as they did for Mr. Obama: In 2012, 13 percent of the electorate was black, and went more than 90 percent for Obama; 10 percent was Hispanics, who gave 71 percent of their vote to the president.


Will more black voters stay at home in 2016, without the first black president on the ticket? There is some evidence in recent nonpresidential years that heavier turnouts are becoming a habit with these voters. Hispanics are the fastest-growing slice of the electorate, the Democrats hope they have an ace in the hole that will generate higher turnouts next year: The anti-immigration invective from Donald J. Trump and other Republicans. Interviews with voters and focus groups suggest that Mrs. Clinton has a “likability” problem; more than a few young voters, particularly, as well as some independents, say that they are turned off by her persona and that she seems old hat. In a famous exchange in a 2008 debate, Mr. Obama cracked, “you’re likable enough, Hillary.” Another liability is that, as of now, many voters, according to polls and focus groups, do not find her trustworthy. The public’s negative view was reinforced by her clumsy handling of the controversy over her private email server as secretary of state.


cont'

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/23/us/politics/lack-of-enthusiasm-from-supporters-may-undermine-clintons-lead.html?_r=0

[BootinUp]

1. Not buying it. The Clintons will fire people up as the GE gets going

they know what they are doing. Yes, I believe Bill will share his knowledge on this with Hillary and do campaigning as well.

[DianeK]

8. there ya go...

counting chickens before they are hatched...a dangerous habit

[BootinUp]

11. We all have opinions, I try to base mine on some kind

of logic which I expressed in the above post.

[DhhD]

69. Logic expressed by Hillarycare Supporters.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/security/stories/retire012199.htm

[BootinUp]

74. Your post lacks anything substantial to respond to. nt

[Phlem]

75. of course.

[Fawke Em]

15. Not anyone I know.

I realize that's anecdotal, but I've not talked to or heard anything enthusiastic about her except here.

[redstateblues]

78. Everybody I know voted for McGovern

How is it possible that Nixon won? DU is a bubble- a small slice of ideological purists that is not representative of the GE electorate. It's like 85%-15% in favor of Bernie. The BS enforcement committee has run off most of the HRC supporters. I'm very enthusiastic about our next POTUS- Hillary Clinton!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

58. I don't think so

[BootinUp]

63. Ok. Thanks. nt

[Calista241]

95. Bill had charisma and personality. He was likable.

Hillary is none of those things.

I know people that voted against Obama both times, and they strongly disagree with his political views, yet they think he is the coolest politician in living history. He has personality. Can you imagine Hillary or even Bill doing Barackatology on ESPN when March Madness hits?

There was an excitement around the election when Obama ran, and I question whether that excitement will be here when it's Hillary v Trump.

[BootinUp]

96. I am well aware that there is a minority opinion such as you have expressed. nt

[Kalidurga]

2. But, she's ahead in the polls and

noun verb 9/11 woman. Cuz taxes and she's a woman. I think I forgot to mention she is a woman. Just in case anyone forgets that she is a woman.

[Segami]

3. Yes,...I do recall her mentioning

that she was a woman in passing.....I don't know why I seem to remember that, but I do for some reason....

[Kalidurga]

6. I know it's like it isn't even a talking point

[tblue37]

23. Also in p*ssing, as she mentione when she took longer than the men

to return to the debate stage after a bathroom break.

[Laser102]

66. She washed her hands afterwards. That takes longer.

[Control-Z]

46. And that really seems to eat away at you.

A woman participating in a man's world. Oh, the horrors. And she's smarter than most men too. That's really gotta hurt.

[That Guy 888]

54. That's what bothered me, that she's smarter than most men but still bought *'s war propaganda n/t

[Laser102]

64. It's the fact that she is better "equipped" than most men. Stronger, more intelligent and bigger

Cojones. They're afraid of her. LOL! That's right honey, no one wants to take her on. Throw Bill into the mix and you have an awesome tag team. As for an enthusiasm deficit, it's just among those that will not be voting for her. The rest of us are pumped.

[firebrand80]

4. It's an issue for her, no doubt

She's got a while to figure it out. Running against the GOP plus the Obamas and Bill Clinton campaigning on her behalf should help her.

[Phlem]

77. Fresh thinking?

It's been the ruling command since the beginning of the Clintons.

They've got you hook line and sinker.

I am thoroughly amazed and depressed at the same time!

God help us. And I'm not even religious.

http://www.thomhartmann.com/bigpicture/third-way-no-way

http://www.thomhartmann.com/users/ozark-matt/blog/2015/05/third-way-runs-white-house-policy-not-obama

https://books.google.com/books?id=zAmgOl5YT2QC&pg=PA328&lpg=PA328&dq=thom+hartmann+the+third+way&source=bl&ots=24W9CbDIOf&sig=x9v4E6IodLU255DThmSjITsVbJU&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjzs_7OwqXJAhUSOogKHYq_C0QQ6AEIOTAE#v=onepage&q=thom%20hartmann%20the%20third%20way&f=false

So your OK with facism?

[Buzz Clik]

5. I thought it was because she and her supporters...

... are pant-suit wearing, banal, third-way, neo-progressive, 1%er sellout slaves to big banks, big business, big oil, and Wall Street who, due to a lack of moral compass, are constantly triangulating and co-opting Bernie's punchlines.

But it's a lack of enthusiasm?

I'll add it to the list.

ON EDIT: I forgot to mention Benghazi.

[randys1]

9. There is a clear agenda to destroy Hillary and I must conclude the democratic party in the process

[Buzz Clik]

10. Not sure it's much of an agenda.

From what I can see, it's a few camps who either a) want a lot of free stuff, b) like to Tell Truth To Power!!!!1111one or 3) want to ensure the Dem failure in the general so they can continue to piss and moan.

Can you imagine trying to build a party platform around that?

[randys1]

12. I dont agree with a) but I do feel that each day the sincere bernie and hillary supporters

are being driven further and further apart by those who have the agenda I spoke of

As to free stuff, it isnt free, it is what you do when you have a sensible democracy which values education and health.

[Kentonio]

99. Want a lot of 'free stuff'?

Ok, Donald..

[Buzz Clik]

101. Calling people at DU rightwingers (or anything similar) ...

... is a violation of the rules.

First and only warning.

[Kentonio]

102. Describing core Democratic policies using right wing terminology should also fall under that rule.

Seriously, 'free stuff'? Didn't you feel even slightly bad posting that?

[Buzz Clik]

103. Sorry, but you're wrong.

You can attack thoughts and ideas all you like (subject to the ire of posters and the very flawed jury system).

Attacking a poster directly with that language is a violation.

Seriously, 'free stuff'? Didn't you feel even slightly bad posting that?

No.

[Kentonio]

104. I'm not wrong, because I said 'should', and it really should.

As for not feeling bad, do you not consider yourself a progressive?

[Buzz Clik]

105. You've returned to your bullshit.

We're done here.

[Kentonio]

106. So you're not going to defend your comment?

Fair enough, it can stand on its own then.

[Buzz Clik]

107. You aren't asking me to defend the comment, you keep asking if I'm progressive.

Enough already.

[Kentonio]

108. I was just struggling to understand how you could reconcile that comment with being a progressive

But ok, lets end it here if you like.

[cherokeeprogressive]

20. Define "destroy". Do you simply mean "agenda to defeat Hillary"?

[senz]

67. Interesting, isn't it? (nt)

[cherokeeprogressive]

92. Haters. That's what we are. Not people who support Bernie Sanders... We're Hillary Clinton Haters.

Because you either love her, or you hate her and want her "destroyed".

[Phlem]

91. I'm sorry, what?

The anointed one is being destroyed. That's a tad ironic.

[artislife]

16. It is her that is banal.

I think very few in the Bernie support even really think about the supporters. It really isn't that important.

[Buzz Clik]

41. About 50% of the OPs condemning HRC for one thing or another...

... wrap up by saying, "And if you supporter, this applies to you, too."

[artislife]

50. Interesting, I read those OPs and I think they are asking why you don't see her as banal

It seems so obvious to us.

[wendylaroux]

28. you nailed it!!

no

[Buzz Clik]

43. Whew. Your approval is so important to me.

And then is saw the sarcasm smilie....

[reformist2]

7. They have enough energy to pick up their landline phones when polled, but can they get out of bed?

[sadoldgirl]

13. Sorry to repeat myself here, but

there is more to it, I think.

The sickest repug, almost on his deathbed
will order an ambulance to vote against her.

And I also think that about 15% of long
time democrats will not vote for her.

The excitement comes with Bernie, not
with HRC.

[SheilaT]

85. Yep. I keep on pointing out that the animosity to Hillary Clinton

outside the Democratic party faithful is vast (and support for her, as the OP points out, simply isn't that strong within the party). If she is the nominee, people who haven't voted in years, maybe even ever, will go out and vote against her.

She is a lightening rod. I, personally, do not at all like her as a candidate. But beyond that, she represents same old same old. She offers nothing new. No new ideas. No new policies. If she's elected, it would be a step backward for the country. Oh, but the Supreme Court! her supporters say. Well, if Bernie Sanders becomes President, he'll be nominating people to the Supreme Court. What about dealing with Congress?? her supporters demand. Hmmm. She was in the Senate for eight years. Bernie Sanders was Mayor of Burlington for I forget how long, and has been in Congress, both the House and Senate for quite a while. He really does know how to work with a legislative body.

But back to the original point. As the OP points out, there is little to no enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton. A surprising lot of people who say they'd vote for her are at best lukewarm. They've been bamboozled into thinking that one, Bernie Sanders can't possibly win a general election, and that two, Hillary Clinton would win the general election in a landslide. Neither is true.

[moobu2]

14. Better hope she wins the primary

or else we'll be watching a republican get sworn in on January __ 2017. Bernie Sanders is completely unelectable in the general. Look how horrible he did in the debates and the Republicans haven't even started in on him. Thankfully, we won't have to worry about that happening though.

[artislife]

17. Funny, I see the republicans win if she gets the nom in the primary. nt

[Thinkingabout]

24. Sanders will not win the GE.

[bvf]

30. Good to see you expect to

see him in it, though.

[redstateblues]

79. A Socialist in the White House?

nope

[Fawke Em]

18. Horrible in the debates?

At least he didn't noun, verb 9/11 (he couldn't mention he's a woman - he does speak the truth, afterall).

[Thinkingabout]

25. Sanders messed up on the first question, he was given a chance to show his foreign affairs strength,

He failed.

[George II]

76. No, he did noun, verb, oligarch.

[Bluenorthwest]

40. "Borrack is clearly unelectable in the GE"- moobu2, Mon Mar-24-08 08:27 AM

The predictive powers of moobu2 demonstrated.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5230028

[SheilaT]

87. Thanks for the link.

A lot of people don't remember how far behind Hillary Clinton Barack Obama was at this point in 2007. We were told over and over back then that Hillary was Inevitable. She'd get the nomination. She'd win the election. She'd usher in a new golden age. Remind me again, why we are not currently in the waning months of her second administration.

[Thinkingabout]

19. Damn, I would think all of this energy would be out in the streets trying to gather mire support for

Sanders rather than worry about Hillary supporters. How many Hillary supporters does this type of post win over, none.

[Live and Learn]

35. Fortunately, we are capable of doing both. But I keep looking for the Hillary

supporters out there and they are no where in sight.

[Thinkingabout]

36. You must not be going in the right places.

[Live and Learn]

45. I guess not, I have only been on the streets with the people.

Guess I should try Wall Street.

[840high]

52. lol ..

+1

[Thinkingabout]

72. Yes there are lots of people on Wall Street but many have already pledged to vote for Hillary,

Sorry too late. You did not think Hillary and Bill was giving those speeches without asking for their support and actually it was not for their donations but for votes. See, you snooze, you lose.

[sleepyvoter]

111. Nailed in one.

Thanks for the laugh

[onehandle]

21. Hillary has a 50 state lead and Iowa is in 10 weeks.

The primary is over.

[Thinkingabout]

26. This would be a good time for the Sanders team to kick up their grass roots efforts

But I dont think it is going to happen.

[Vincardog]

27. Then quit posting about it.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

59. but will they come out to vote for her?

I don't think so

[Kentonio]

100. Did you forget about Vermont?

[onehandle]

110. You mean the Vermont where Hillary is ahead?

The former secretary of state is now leading former U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont by four percentage points, with 38 percent of support from primary Democratic voters in the Granite State. Her favorability now is 7 percentage points higher than in September.

http://www.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-new-hampshire-385602

She's ahead in Senator Sanders' home state of New York, too.

[Kentonio]

112. Erm, you just linked to a poll about New Hampshire.

[onehandle]

113. Misread it. Can't even find polling for Vermont.

So worst case scenario, she's ahead in 98% of states.

'Darn.'

[ibegurpard]

22. Is she going to turn out the constituencies mentioned?

Very questionable. And she is going to sink us down-ticket.

[Agschmid]

33. She just got a mayor elected in NH.

We all worked together to make it happen.

[Thinkingabout]

37. Having Hillary out getting Democrats elected is good but I know you helped also.

This is how it happens, one at a time.

[Agschmid]

39. Yup.

The Hillary for NH volunteers canvassed for local dems to help get them across the finish line! #GOTV

[Thinkingabout]

42. Thanks for your efforts, it paid.

[DCBob]

29. "Hillary Rodham Clinton’s nomination is almost a foregone conclusion"

I agree with that part of the article... the rest not so much.

[SheilaT]

88. Just like it was a foregone conclusion eight years ago.

Who was that guy with the funny name who thought he could run against her? Wonder whatever happened to him.

[DCBob]

98. Quote from the article.

[Thinkingabout]

31. What age group usually vote?

[Agschmid]

32. Anything new and positive about Bernie?

I'd love to see more posts about why I should support him...

[MineralMan]

44. You're in for a surprise, I think.

A big surprise...

[jalan48]

47. She has all the excitement of Mundale.

Fortunately for her the Republican's are even worse.

[Dont call me Shirley]

48. The Youth Vote goes to Bernie. Get out the vote!

[MrWendel]

49. All this...

whining from the Sanders group is inspiring, I might have to switch sides!

[Demeter]

68. Please don't

We couldn't stand the enthusiasm...

/revision/latest?cb=20120903231247

[MrWendel]

97. HAHAHAHAHAHA...

(No Snark) That actually made me laugh out loud! I give props where its due.

[gwheezie]

51. I don't need to be enthused to work for her

Or vote for her. I'm not Patty Hearst. I am approaching this election like the rest of them except for 08, when I was enthused about Obama. Which is ironic since I did vote for HRC in the 08 primary but by the time Obama was running as the nominee, he won me over.
I think she has the best shot at winning and I think she can handle herself in whatever crisis pops up during her presidency.

[jeff47]

57. Caucuses aren't just votes. They're a pain in the ass.

As a result, you have to be enthused about your candidate to get through the whole process.

That's how Dean lost IA. His poll numbers were great. His "voters" didn't bother with the caucuses.

[Android3.14]

62. "I don't need to be enthused to work for her or vote for her."

This is the opposite of enthusiasm. This line is exactly what the article is talking about.

[George II]

53. Now you're REALLY reaching (like the capitalized single word???)!

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

55. Politics-as-usual candidates don't engender much passion.

Kinda like stale graham crackers and warm milk for lunch.

[Lithos]

56. Good article...

The positiveness from the unknown Sanders vs the negatives from the known, but dominant, Hillary C.

L-

[NanceGreggs]

61. To hear BS supporters tell the tale ...

... all of those polled who declare their support for HRC do so by responding, "Ya know, I really have no enthusiasm whatsoever for this woman, but I'm going to vote for her anyway."

The "lack of enthusiasm for HRC" bullshit has never been shown to have any basis in reality. It is simply another unsubstantiated internet meme that BS supporters try to promote as being an actual fact - in the same way they point to on-line polls that say "Bernie is destined to win all 50 states!" as being more reflective of reality than actual scientific polling.

Given actual poll numbers, to say HRC's supporters lack enthusiasm is like saying the vast majority of people choose to eat at Restaurant A rather than Restaurant B - but despite their preference for the food served at Restaurant A, they're not really enthusiastic about eating there.

Straw-grasping at its finest.

[rynestonecowboy]

80. You guys really don't see it?

I see a ton of HRC events and Sanders events and the enthusiasm isn't even close. I watch HRC events and they look just like Romney events, a ton of well dressed good looking white people and the trucked in minorities. I live in just about the most conservative part of Texas and I can tell you from my experience that no democratic primary candidate has ever brought out so many different people from different backgrounds as Sanders. BHO won by turning out African american, Hispanic, and young voters in record numbers and I believe Bernie will do the same. In my town that is about 50/50 White and Hispanic and about about 1% African american at our last primary get together we had young first time voters, African Americans and senior citizens all show up and the only HRC supporter was a middle aged white woman who could only parrot HRC talking points all night. This election will be won by the righteous revolution of people who actually care about the country more than they do about optics and "elect-ability." True Democrats are supporting Sanders and all her very well paid online posters like yourself will inevitably lose like she did in 2008.

[BootinUp]

82. As another DU'er so accurately put it

You are entitled to your own reality.

[NanceGreggs]

89. Bwahahahaha!!!

I guess all of those polls that show BS lagging behind HRC among AAs and minorities were all bought-and-paid-for - just like HRC's endorsers. Or maybe they've all been threatened by the Clinton Payback Machine!

So I'm a "paid on-line poster"? Please let HRC know that I haven't received my paycheck as yet - and neither have any of her other supporters, or the "trucked-in" minorities.

[cherokeeprogressive]

93. I really have no enthusiasm whatsoever for this woman.

I'm not going to vote for her. Support for HRC has never been shown to have any basis in reality.

[NanceGreggs]

94. You're right.

All of those polls results are just a figment of the collective imagination.



<<<<< Because it's actually necessary these days.

[Demeter]

65. Not to mention the lack of supporters...

[book_worm]

70. Sorry, but the fact of the first woman nominated for president and with a good chance of winning

will enthuse a lot of people--including many young women--in the general election in 2016.

[SheilaT]

90. Eight years ago that was exactly what was held up as

why Hillary Clinton would be nominated and why she'd coast to a huge landslide election. Didn't happen. Probably won't happen this year, either. I certainly hope not. In the past eight years she's become more and more entrenched with Wall Street and business as usual. She's lost what little touch she had a decade ago with ordinary people who work for a living, who can't afford to send their kids to a private school, who worry about how long they can keep on working, and if Social Security will cover their needs, especially as their long-ago promised pension disappeared.

Here's another thing everyone needs to understand: While it would be quite nice to have a woman President (and I'm a 67 year old woman, so I know), there is simply not such a longing for a female President that vast numbers of Republican women will cross party lines to vote for her, should she become the nominee. After all, how many of us would vote for a Sarah Palin or a Carly Fiorina just to see a woman in the White House. And Hillary is vastly more despised.

[bowens43]

71. Voting for hillary is like going to the prom with your sister.....

except that at the end of the day taking your sister to the prom won't destroy what is left of the country.

[redstateblues]

84. hyperbole much?

The 85%-15% dominance of BSers here on DU has given rise to some ridiculous claims. You sound like a combination of Bobby Jindal and Mike Huckabee with your apocalyptic rhetoric.

[MisterP]

73. coming from the NYT this is basically an sexton driving up with a couple of shovels

(Bloomberg original here) http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-22/clinton-s-weaknesses-are-hidden-by-republican-disarray

"I'll promise not to use the back of the hand" isn't cutting it even for diehard Dems (who have a candidate that REPRESENTS exactly why they're Diehard dems)

[McCamy Taylor]

81. All the women I know are extremely enthusiastic.

[SwampG8r]

86. Same here

Just not for hillary

[GoneOffShore]

83. And in other news....

Water is wet.

A "Likability Problem"?

There's a super surprise.

[Blue_Adept]

109. Thank goodness posters don't get charged extra for using bolding