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Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:12 PM

Star Member babylonsister (144,146 posts)

Obama’s Odds of Reelection Increase After Romney’s Acceptance Speech

http://www.politicususa.com/obamas-odds-reelection-increase-romneys-acceptance-speech.html


Obama’s Odds of Reelection Increase After Romney’s Acceptance Speech

By: Jason Easley
August 31st, 2012


How bad was Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech? According to Intrade, the odds of Obama being reelected have increased from 55.7% before the speech to 56.8% after.

snip//

Anyone looking for a big bounce in support for Mitt Romney after that speech probably shouldn’t be holding their breath. The speech was an underwhelming disjointed mess with no theme, no vision, and at times seemingly no idea where it was going.

Mitt Romney’s speech was essentially a longer more drawn out version of his stump speech. If you have heard Romney speak in the last five years, then you’ve heard this speech before.

But it takes a special kind of fail to give a national address, and see your opponent’s odds of success increase.

snip//

The Republican nominee demonstrated once again that he is over matched by the big stage. If the impression that Romney left in Tampa helped Obama today, imagine what is fallout might be when these two men are standing by side at the presidential debates.

Only Mitt Romney could hurt his odds of victory by showing up at his own convention. The one thing working most in Obama’s favor as he campaigns for reelection is that he is running against Mitt Romney.

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Arrow 45 replies Author Time Post
Reply Obama’s Odds of Reelection Increase After Romney’s Acceptance Speech (Original post)
 babylonsister Aug 2012 OP
LineReply bahahaha!
 FirstLight Aug 2012 #1
LineReply 57.5 as of right now
 bluestateguy Aug 2012 #2
LineLineReply 57.9 now, a change of .4 in just 40 minutes from your post. nt
 Quixote1818 Aug 2012 #15
LineReply Good, He Can Take One of Those $30 Million
 otohara Aug 2012 #3
LineReply From Jason's Keyboard to
 Cha Aug 2012 #4
LineReply intrade isn't a good predictor
 bigdarryl Aug 2012 #5
LineLineReply Yes it is.
 Drunken Irishman Aug 2012 #6
LineLineReply Actually it extremely accurate. nt
 Quixote1818 Aug 2012 #16
LineReply So if he spent 5 years saying the same thing over and over...
 LiberalFighter Aug 2012 #7
LineReply Good...let Koch and Addleson pour more money into the economy
 Sheepshank Aug 2012 #8
LineReply I'm the world's biggest pessimist, but still...
 Rozlee Aug 2012 #9
LineReply Please go back to the private sector...
 donqpublic Aug 2012 #10
LineReply Don't Get Over Confident
 chuckstevens Aug 2012 #11
LineLineReply I like that idea, chuckstevens, and welcome to DU! nt
 babylonsister Aug 2012 #12
LineLineReply ^^^ THIS ^^^
 Tarheel_Dem Aug 2012 #14
LineLineReply Welcome to DU
 NewJeffCT Aug 2012 #18
LineLineReply That should be part of his speech at the convention.
 beac Aug 2012 #20
LineLineReply Welcome to DU, chuckstevens and donqpublic!
 calimary Aug 2012 #21
LineLineReply hear, hear!
 defacto7 Aug 2012 #25
LineLineReply Yep, we are counting our chickens...
 awoke_in_2003 Sep 2012 #32
LineLineNew Reply What needs to happen after the election is the elimination of the fillibustere and every other
 Monk06 Sep 2012 #39
LineLineNew Reply Welcome to DU - I'm hoping BoHner is a goner...
 Historic NY Sep 2012 #43
LineLineNew Reply Yes! I also want to remind everyone that it's equally important to support downticket.
 progressivebydesign Sep 2012 #45
LineReply I think Romney's situation has been more desperate than the media will admit
 Doctor Jack Aug 2012 #13
LineLineReply I am SO looking forward...
 PsychGrad Aug 2012 #17
LineLineLineReply Welcome to DU, PsychGrad and Doctor Jack!
 calimary Aug 2012 #26
LineLineLineNew Reply Welcome to DU...
 Historic NY Sep 2012 #44
LineLineReply The bald Republican guy on MSNBC
 NewJeffCT Aug 2012 #19
LineLineLineReply bald Guy
 chuckstevens Aug 2012 #22
LineLineLineReply Steve Schmidt.
 calimary Aug 2012 #24
LineLineLineLineReply In all fairness to Sen. Rubio
 Doc Holliday Sep 2012 #31
LineReply WE WILL SEE...
 SkyDaddy7 Aug 2012 #23
LineLineReply And I believe they went second, so of course they were going to get a bump.
 calimary Aug 2012 #27
LineReply Can someone please tell me when the Republican convention starts?
 defacto7 Aug 2012 #28
LineReply It looks like Mittens ...
 bayareaboy Aug 2012 #29
LineReply As others have said...
 1GirlieGirl Aug 2012 #30
LineLineReply Welcome to DU...
 awoke_in_2003 Sep 2012 #33
LineLineNew Reply Very True...
 cheezmaka Sep 2012 #40
LineLineLineNew Reply This message was self-deleted by its author
 1GirlieGirl Sep 2012 #42
LineReply I can't wait for the debates. n/t
 D23MIURG23 Sep 2012 #34
LineLineNew Reply Me neither!
 cheezmaka Sep 2012 #41
LineReply NO momentum at all.
 BrainMann1 Sep 2012 #35
LineNew Reply bounceless
 Rosa Luxemburg Sep 2012 #36
LineNew Reply But
 kalli007 Sep 2012 #37
LineNew Reply Compared to that speech the board meetings he chaired at Bain must have been riviting.
 Monk06 Sep 2012 #38

Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:15 PM

FirstLight (8,458 posts)

1. bahahaha!

Boom baby! OUR POTUS wins when the other guy speaks....you just can't make this stuff up!

Add say about 5 more points when the DNC convenes, and I am lowballing...
Add another 5 points during the debates...


ya, our biggest enemy this election is voter suppression...so let's be vigilant on that!

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:18 PM

bluestateguy (40,060 posts)

2. 57.5 as of right now

nt

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:05 PM

Star Member Quixote1818 (16,562 posts)

15. 57.9 now, a change of .4 in just 40 minutes from your post. nt

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:21 PM

otohara (21,583 posts)

3. Good, He Can Take One of Those $30 Million

Per year job offers he's turned down and quit pretending he's something he's not!

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:21 PM

Star Member Cha (124,404 posts)

4. From Jason's Keyboard to

the very special gods of the Election2012's EARS! That's how it should be in a sane USA.

Thanks babylonsistah!

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:22 PM

bigdarryl (9,137 posts)

5. intrade isn't a good predictor

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #5)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:33 PM

Drunken Irishman (24,587 posts)

6. Yes it is.

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #5)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:06 PM

Star Member Quixote1818 (16,562 posts)

16. Actually it extremely accurate. nt

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:37 PM

Star Member LiberalFighter (31,071 posts)

7. So if he spent 5 years saying the same thing over and over...

wouldn't that mean he would keep repeating again and again if he was elected?

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:44 PM

Star Member Sheepshank (5,021 posts)

8. Good...let Koch and Addleson pour more money into the economy

to try and win anyway. Perfect.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:47 PM

Rozlee (1,366 posts)

9. I'm the world's biggest pessimist, but still...

Romney has no one behind him except old white people. Depending on which poll you pay attention to, Obama is ahead of Romney by around 95% with African-Americans, 70% with Hispanics, roughly the same with Asian-Americans, around 68% with American Jews, I'm not sure of the youth vote, but I'm assuming it's going in Obama's favor, and 10 points up with women. Who was it, Karl Rove (?) who said a presidential candidate will need to have at least 44% of the Hispanic vote to win in future elections? And the election will come down to the swing states, many of which will be decided by the Hispanic vote. But, the pessimist in me is still worried about those Diebold machines, voter suppression, low Democrat voter turnout and the near billion raised against Obama by Citizens United.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 08:35 PM

Star Member donqpublic (155 posts)

10. Please go back to the private sector...

they at least deserve you. And take Lyin with you.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 08:35 PM

chuckstevens (334 posts)

11. Don't Get Over Confident

Remember: They're still trying to steal this thing anyway they can! However, when Obama does win, the first thing he needs to do is hold a national presidential address calling out by name Mitch McConnell and the Bonner and ask them if they still plan on obstructing everything.

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Response to chuckstevens (Reply #11)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 08:50 PM

Star Member babylonsister (144,146 posts)

12. I like that idea, chuckstevens, and welcome to DU! nt

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Response to chuckstevens (Reply #11)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 08:55 PM

Tarheel_Dem (16,604 posts)

14. ^^^ THIS ^^^

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Response to chuckstevens (Reply #11)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:24 PM

NewJeffCT (35,869 posts)

18. Welcome to DU

and, good idea on calling out the Republican leaders.

However, Obama calling them out 4 years ago - telling them to stop listening to & following Rush Limbaugh - got a good amount of publicity, but Republicans still bowed down to the altar of Rush.

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Response to chuckstevens (Reply #11)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:45 PM

Star Member beac (9,340 posts)

20. That should be part of his speech at the convention.

Call them out and keep calling them out every day until election day.

And WELCOME to DU!

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Response to chuckstevens (Reply #11)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:45 PM

Star Member calimary (30,555 posts)

21. Welcome to DU, chuckstevens and donqpublic!

Glad to have you here! We need you! Help us keep debunking the lies.




Now get to work.

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Response to chuckstevens (Reply #11)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:48 PM

Star Member defacto7 (3,218 posts)

25. hear, hear!

Last edited Tue Sep 4, 2012, 01:24 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

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Response to chuckstevens (Reply #11)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 01:00 PM

Star Member awoke_in_2003 (18,479 posts)

32. Yep, we are counting our chickens...

too soon. Kerry slaughtered Bush in their debates. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people. Welcome to DU

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Response to chuckstevens (Reply #11)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 09:05 PM

Monk06 (5,605 posts)

39. What needs to happen after the election is the elimination of the fillibustere and every other


blocking maneuver in the House Rule book. Simple majority to pass legislation and the VP should not be the tie breaker in the Senate. In the event of a tie legislation should go back to the House. And there should be closure after a reasonable amount of debate.

The Congress as it stands is not disfunctional it is nonfunctional. The Repugs may like that the government literally doesn't work but it is killing the country.

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Response to chuckstevens (Reply #11)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:42 PM

Star Member Historic NY (19,712 posts)

43. Welcome to DU - I'm hoping BoHner is a goner...

or in the very least loses the speakership

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Response to chuckstevens (Reply #11)

Sun Sep 2, 2012, 01:38 AM

progressivebydesign (19,363 posts)

45. Yes! I also want to remind everyone that it's equally important to support downticket.

Another term with President Obama, and a hostile Senate and House, is going to be more of the same.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 08:52 PM

Doctor Jack (788 posts)

13. I think Romney's situation has been more desperate than the media will admit

Last edited Fri Aug 31, 2012, 08:55 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

And the convention needed to be a home run in order for him to make up ground. Instead we got Lyin' Ryan, Clint the Incomprehensible, a 30 minute round of heavy breathing from Christie, and a highly mediocre speech by the big dog himself. At best, the convention was forgettable and that really only leaves Romney and Ryan the debates for a comeback. And most of us have seen Romney debate....its not pretty.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #13)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:10 PM

PsychGrad (21 posts)

17. I am SO looking forward...

to the debates! If I didn't even like Obama (I adore him! lol), I would still have to respect his intelligence and his ability to stay calm and steady when under pressure. He's got swag... by the pound! These debates are going to be hilarious! )

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Response to PsychGrad (Reply #17)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:48 PM

Star Member calimary (30,555 posts)

26. Welcome to DU, PsychGrad and Doctor Jack!

Glad you are here, too! Thanks for your help winning this thing - we need you!





Now get to work.

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Response to PsychGrad (Reply #17)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:44 PM

Star Member Historic NY (19,712 posts)

44. Welcome to DU...

the POTUS will come out with a big stick...because etch-a-sketch can't remember which lie or when he told it.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #13)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:29 PM

NewJeffCT (35,869 posts)

19. The bald Republican guy on MSNBC

Forgot his name - he was played by Woody Harrelson in Game Change - said that if Romney's not ahead by more than the margin of error this weekend, he's in trouble. I think that's true. And, the polling I've seen has been Romney by 2, which is well within margins of error on most polls.

I expect Obama to be ahead by more than the margin of error by the end of the DNC - while I thought Rubio gave a pretty good speech (though, light on policy) - the Republicans have nobody that can hold a candle to Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. Heck, I thought Michelle Obama was pretty damn good back in 2008.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #19)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:46 PM

chuckstevens (334 posts)

22. bald Guy

Steve Schmidt?

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #19)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:47 PM

Star Member calimary (30,555 posts)

24. Steve Schmidt.

And remember, marco rubio's speech didn't have the anticipated effect, either, because it was overshadowed by Clint Eastwood.

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Response to calimary (Reply #24)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:19 AM

Doc Holliday (593 posts)

31. In all fairness to Sen. Rubio

Clint was kind of a hard act to follow.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:47 PM

Star Member SkyDaddy7 (4,570 posts)

23. WE WILL SEE...

I thought the same thing about McCain & Palin but turns out they surged ahead of Obama in the polls several days after the GOP Convention had ended...Sarah Palin giving interviews is what reversed the numbers 7 they held until election day.

WE WILL SEE what the polls look like come late next week...Then what they look like after Obama works his magic! Because Obama will have a a defined vision of where he thinks America should be headed & he plans on getting there!

Then Obama will have to endure the most money ever spent against a candidate running for any office anywhere EVER...If he still wins the election then enough Americans will have truly spoken they don't want anything to do with the GOPs Far RIGHT AGENDA!!

I sure hope this will be the case...This will be a very long 2 months!!!!

Obama 2012!!

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Response to SkyDaddy7 (Reply #23)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:50 PM

Star Member calimary (30,555 posts)

27. And I believe they went second, so of course they were going to get a bump.

The Democratic Convention went first four years ago. Then came the mcsame/palin show.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:53 PM

Star Member defacto7 (3,218 posts)

28. Can someone please tell me when the Republican convention starts?

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:53 PM

Star Member bayareaboy (585 posts)

29. It looks like Mittens ...


And the GOP are holding their Midas touch wand in the wrong direction.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:58 PM

1GirlieGirl (261 posts)

30. As others have said...

The only things that can stop President Obama's re-election are dirty voter suppression tactics and the staggering amount of disposable income that crooks like Adelson and the Kochs are willing to pour into PACs. RMoney and Lyin would never stand a chance against Our Man without those 2 factors.

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Response to 1GirlieGirl (Reply #30)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 01:15 PM

Star Member awoke_in_2003 (18,479 posts)

33. Welcome to DU...

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Response to 1GirlieGirl (Reply #30)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 09:12 PM

cheezmaka (436 posts)

40. Very True...

That's why ALL of us need to give as much as we can to the campaign. I just made another donation to Obama for America and MoveON.org and will plan to do more before Nov. If all of us do the same, I believe this will help Obama even 'FURTHER'...

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Response to cheezmaka (Reply #40)

1GirlieGirl This message was self-deleted by its author.

Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 01:51 PM

Star Member D23MIURG23 (2,168 posts)

34. I can't wait for the debates. n/t

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Response to D23MIURG23 (Reply #34)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 09:16 PM

cheezmaka (436 posts)

41. Me neither!

Obama vs. Romney and Biden vs. Ryan! a DOUBLE-HEADER!!!

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 05:28 PM

BrainMann1 (317 posts)

35. NO momentum at all.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 06:52 PM

Star Member Rosa Luxemburg (21,964 posts)

36. bounceless

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 08:03 PM

Star Member kalli007 (625 posts)

37. But

Last edited Sat Sep 1, 2012, 08:04 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

"But it takes a special kind of fail to give a national address, and see your opponent’s odds of success increase."
L
O
L

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sat Sep 1, 2012, 08:58 PM

Monk06 (5,605 posts)

38. Compared to that speech the board meetings he chaired at Bain must have been riviting.

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