2016 Postmortem

bigdarryl

(13,190 posts) Fri Aug 31, 2012, 06:38 AM Aug 2012

Nate Silver: Obama has a 71.6% chance of winning in November

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/31/1126198/-Nate-Silver-Obama-has-a-71-6-Chance-of-Winning-the-Election

6 replies

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Nate Silver: Obama has a 71.6% chance of winning in November (Original Post) bigdarryl Aug 2012 OP

Not good enough to keep the pukes from stealing it from him. liberal N proud Aug 2012 #1

and how much of the remaining 28.4% does Mittens split with Invisible Obama? magical thyme Aug 2012 #2

Yea but... SoFlaJet Aug 2012 #3

Identical to this demosincebirth Aug 2012 #4

Hahaha did his chances actually go UP after the RNC? Arkana Aug 2012 #5

It's been rising recently, though it is too early for the "bump" from the RNC to be visible Marsala Aug 2012 #6

liberal N proud

(60,332 posts)

1. Not good enough to keep the pukes from stealing it from him.

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 06:43 AM

Aug 2012

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)

2. and how much of the remaining 28.4% does Mittens split with Invisible Obama?

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 06:50 AM

Aug 2012

SoFlaJet

(7,767 posts)

3. Yea but...

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 07:12 AM

Aug 2012

Michael Moore says that Mitt Romney BECAUSE of all the cash that will be coming in on ads will be the next POTUSoA. Of course we ALL know that Moore's prognostications are more spot on that nerdy Nate and his sill data...at least that's what some right here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014213724 are telling me...

demosincebirth

(12,529 posts)

4. Identical to this

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 09:23 AM

Aug 2012

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Arkana

(24,347 posts)

5. Hahaha did his chances actually go UP after the RNC?

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 11:20 AM

Aug 2012

Marsala

(2,090 posts)

6. It's been rising recently, though it is too early for the "bump" from the RNC to be visible

Reply to Arkana (Reply #5)

Fri Aug 31, 2012, 12:45 PM

Aug 2012

If, that is, Romney gets one.

At any rate, I'm pretty sure that Obama's odds are higher in Nate's model now than they were at this time in 2008, though Nate's model is probably far more sophisticated now.

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