Real Clear Politics now has the graph up for Nov 14 **New Hamphire State -Gravis Poll : Clinton 46%

[riversedge]

In case anyone missed this new poll that came out Saturday --with the debate and Paris horrible incident happening.
Anyway--the graph is niow posted also--go to website



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html


New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary


Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton Sanders O'Malley Spread

RCP Average 10/15 - 11/11 -- -- 44.3 41.3 3.0 Clinton +3.0

Gravis 11/11 - 11/11 214 RV 6.7 46 25 3 Clinton +21
Monmouth 10/29 - 11/1 403 LV 4.9 48 45 3 Clinton +3
CBS/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 499 LV 7.1 39 54 3 Sanders +15


<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>




Nov 14 **New Hamphire State -Gravis Poll : Clinton 46% Sanders 25


Lets hope this one has better Karma.

THIS IS NEW HAMPSHIRE

New Hampshire poll, Hillary leads Sanders by 21%

NH-Gravis: Clinton 46% Sanders 25% O'Malley 3%



http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-new-hampshire-polling-2/

Current New Hampshire Polling

November 14, 2015


http://www.chartgo.com/embed.do?id=1b9c9cc4aa


All New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Polling Data

[stonecutter357]

1. K&R!

[JaneyVee]

2. How is that even possible?

NH is Bernie's backyard.

[riversedge]

4. My boy out canvassing for the first time. #proudmama #HillaryforNH

LOTS of folks out getting people to sign up and register.

Just on example:

JoAnn ?@JoAnnS22 Nov 14

My boy out canvassing for the first time. #proudmama #HillaryforNH #Hillary2016
:large

[Cha]

15. Are they adorable or what?!! I'm glad I found your post, rivers.. just happened

to be checking out page 3!

[MoonRiver]

3. Fantastic!

Go Holl!!

[zomgitsjesus]

5. If you want the results you would like then...

you only include in the poll the subset of voters that favor your candidate. If you are the establishment, you will do everything you can to keep Sanders off the general election ballot.

[Tarc]

7. We will support Hillary by voting for Hillary

There is no trickery involved.

[trumad]

6. Remember...we are in a DU bubble.

A very small bubble.

The BSers are living in a fantasy.

[Melissa G]

8. How many times do we have to post the Gravis scam threads?

Before people here remember that Gravis is garbage?

Try site Google. Read about Gravis debunking.

[Bluenorthwest]

10. In 2012 DUer Grantcart did a large expose on Gravis. Three parts.

DU Exclusive: Gravis Marketing exposed as a fraud Part I
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021489250

Gravis Marketing Exposed II. The Evisceration of Douglas Kaplan
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021539890

Post about DU's 'Gravis Working Group'
Gravis Exposed - America's Greatest Pollster Gets the Full Monty Index Updated 10/19/12 15:48 EST
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021568200


The exposing of Gravis by grantcart was a major DU event with many, many threads......

[Adrahil]

14. I suspect the Gravis poll is junk....

But they are not the only poll showing Clinton in the lead in NH.

I still think Sanders has a good shot at winning NH. But frankly, he needs a LOT more than NH.

[KittyWampus]

9. Frustrated about O'Malley.

[Attorney in Texas]

11. Ask yourself -- what does it mean that Clinton does much better in internet polls and the race is

much tighter if you focus on the live phone polls instead?

Why does Clinton do better in automated phone polls rather than live phone polls?

Surely such a trend tells us something. What is it that this trend is telling us?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Here is a link to aggregate polling....

Here is a link to aggregate polling:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary


It is a veritable smorgasbord of polls that use a potpourri of techniques.

Can you please point to which polls use which technique and how the results differ and why.

Thank you in advance.

[Attorney in Texas]

13. If you go to that website at your link, you will see that Clinton leads Sanders by 56.5% to 32.2%,

which corresponds to a 24.3% lead (big but smaller than Clinton's lead over Obama during parts of November 2007).

This aggregation model is composed of

(1) live phone polls
(2) internet polls
(3) automated phone polls
(4) IVR/online polls

The IVR polling is just one segment of one pollster's polling (it is just one part of PPP's polling) so it is really too small a sample to make any difference (i.e., if we include IVR polls in the aggregate or exclude IVR polls from the aggregate, we get the same result in all three filter scenarios below).

If we filter to include only internet polls (i.e., an aggregate of all internet polls such as Morning Consult, SurveyMonkey, Zogby), Clinton's lead jumps to 27%.

If we filter to include only automated phone polls (i.e., an aggregate of all automated phone polls such as Gravis and Rasmussen), Clinton's lead jumps to 32.6%.

If we filter to include only live phone polls (i.e., an aggregate of all live landline and cell phone polls such as CBS/NY Times, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, CNN), Clinton's lead drops to 20.3%.



I have noticed this trend for several months. It is a consistent pattern (no variations over the past three months) that the race is tighter if you look at live phone polls rather than automated phone polls or internet polls.

I tend to put more faith in live phone polls because they have historically been the most accurate, but that is not my point because none of the polls this far out from the first vote tell us much (just look at the Democratic polling in November of 2007 or the Republican polling of November 2011).

My point is that we have a pattern here. I don't know what it means, but it surely means something.