CNN/TIME poll: Romney ahead by only +1 in North Carolina

[TroyD]

I noticed that the new FLORIDA poll was posted, but I didn't see any mention of this one, so I thought I would post it.

NORTH CAROLINA [Romney +1]

Romney - 48

Obama - 47

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/27/cnntime-polls-close-contests-in-florida-and-north-carolina/?hpt=hp_t2

[speedoo]

1. Lots of retirees in NC.

When they cut through the Rethug BS, they won't like what Romney is offering.

NC is very winnable.

[TroyD]

2. North Carolina demographic breakdowns

In North Carolina, the CNN/Time Magazine/ORC poll indicates a dead heat, with 48% of likely voters supporting Romney and 47% backing Obama. Among independent voters, Romney has a 13 point lead.

"In North Carolina, it's an east-west split, rather than the north-south division we see in Florida," Holland notes. "Obama's strength east of I-95 and in the Research Triangle area roughly matches the advantage Romney has in the central and western parts of the state."

Just over eight in ten likely voters said their minds were made up, with 16% saying they could still change their minds.

Obama narrowly won North Carolina four years ago, the first Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since 1976. Fifteen electoral votes are up for grabs in the state.

Age also plays a factor in both states, particularly in Florida. But there is no indication that the debate over Medicare in the wake of Romney's selection of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate has moved the needle among senior citizens. Obama won 45% of the vote among Florida voters over the age of 65 in 2008 and is getting 45% among that group now. His share of the senior vote in North Carolina is also virtually the same as it was four years ago.

[GentryDixon]

3. You may be sorely disappointed,

but keep the faith. Your boy Rmoney may steal it after all.8

[TroyD]

4. Pardon me?

What do you mean?

[CabCurious]

5. It is unfortunately common for trolls here to attack new people as "republican shills"

And this one apparently doesn't grasp the point that +1 for Romney in NC is outstanding news for Obama, because it means this state is perhaps "in play."

[TroyD]

6. Exactly. And my title made that clear when I said Romney is ONLY up 1

Btw, how can anyone think I like Romney when I post 10 anti-Romney threads a day and despise the pathological liar that he is?

[CabCurious]

7. "how can anyone think"

They aren't thinking, IMO, just reacting.

[TroyD]

8. North Carolina

Well, anyway hopefully the Obama team can pull off a narrow win in NC the way they did in 2008. I think Obama was behind at this time 4 years ago too.

Hopefully the thousands of people on the ground for the DNC Convention will provide enough momentum combined with a ground operation to push Obama over the top.

Romney hasn't done this before, so the Obama team may have an edge since they established the framework 4 years ago and can build on it.

And if North Carolina starts leaning Obama, that makes Romney's path to 270 even more difficult.