"Aug. 22: Keeping Score on a Busy Polling Day" by Nate Silver at the NY Times

[applegrove]

Aug. 22: Keeping Score on a Busy Polling Day

by Nate Silver at the NY Times

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/22/aug-22-keeping-score-on-a-busy-polling-day/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

"SNIP....................................

Good Polls for President Obama

•A Rasmussen Reports poll of New Mexico gives Mr. Obama a 14-point lead there. This is the first poll of any kind in New Mexico in about a month. The prior Rasmussen Reports poll of New Mexico had also given Mr. Obama a big lead there — 16 points — but it was conducted in April, when Mr. Obama’s numbers had been stronger across the board. New Mexico just does not look like a competitive state this year; our model estimates that Mr. Romney is no more likely to win it than New Jersey.

• A poll of Georgia from the firm 20/20 Insight LLC shows a surprisingly tight race there, with Mr. Obama trailing Mr. Romney by just three points among likely voters. Since this is the first horse-race poll that the firm has released in Georgia or any other state so far this year, it is hard to put the survey in context, and the model is designed to treat polls skeptically under those conditions; it gives Mr. Obama only about a 3 percent chance of winning Georgia in November. But the state is another that could use more polling; this is the first Georgia poll of any kind since May.

So Wednesday was not a knockout polling day for either of the candidates. The New Mexico poll was good for Mr. Obama, but he had already been heavily favored to win there. The Florida poll had a good headline number for Mr. Romney, but we’re not lacking for robopolls that came to the same conclusion, and a number of polls of middling quality aren’t necessarily the best substitute for a good one. The Georgia poll had a better-than-expected result for Mr. Obama and the Montana poll a worse-than-expected one, but neither state is very important in the electoral calculus.

....................................SNIP"

[TroyD]

1. Nate's projections?

What are Nate's current projections for Obama?

Eg. Electoral Vote numbers and Probability of Winning?

[mikekohr]

2. 66.7% Chance of President Obama Winning, 294 EV for The President, 245 for Weird Willard

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[TroyD]

3. A decrease for Obama then

Nothing dramatic, but Obama is down from the 70% high he had a couple of weeks ago.

He's back down to where he was earlier in the Summer when the race was closer.

[applegrove]

4. And that when there should be a bounce for the GOP because they picked a vp.

Not much of a bounce, not much at all...

[mikekohr]

5. Today it's President Obama 69.9% to 30.1% for Weird Willard, an increase for the President

The polls are static. We remain divided as a nation thanks to Faux Gnus and right wing hate radio. The most recent CNN poll has the President up by 9% among registered voters. That overwhelming lead shrinks to 2%, 49% to 47% when applied to likely voters.

This highlights why Republican are going to double down on lies, hatred and voter suppression. They are, and are self aware, that they are the clear minority in this nation. Expect an Obama victory in November. But without the House, Senate and reform of the fillibuster rule we will get 2 more years of Republican do nothing obstruction.

That's how nations fail and fall. But for Republicans power means more than the welfare of the people, priviledge trumps principle. Hatred and division can win elections, but it drives the Republican party to a position from which it can not govern.

[Cosmocat]

6. They absolute KNOW it

the people who run the operation, that the negative campaigning suppresses votes to their advantage.

They know it DARN WELL.

The beauty of it for them is, they still believe they are victims, and their candidates are FULLY capable of the most scorched earth campaigning possible while simultaneously playing the role of victim when confronted with the TRUTH and REALITY of what they do or propose.