2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe fact Romney still hasn't been able to overtake Obama in most polls has to be concerning...
This election is almost over. We've got a bit over two months and let's be honest, by early October, the race almost always sets and if you're down at that point, you're probably going to lose. August was a tailor-made month for Romney - he picked his VP & is having his convention. So far, he's barely moved the needle and continues to trail Obama in almost every poll nationally. On July 21st, Obama's average lead over Romney was 1.2%. Today? It's 2.7%. Romney has actually lost ground.
If I'm working for Romney's campaign, I'm looking at these numbers and wondering when my candidate makes his move. It has to be at the convention because I guarantee you if Romney comes out of Tampa still without a lead over Obama, he's done. This race will be over. If he can't take the lead after his own personal week-long campaign advertisement, he ain't gonna take it in September or October and he certainly isn't going to take it in November...well I should tack on an 'unless' to that - unless something out his control happens. You know, an Obama gaffe (unlikely), an economic collapse (unlikely) or some unforeseen event that could dramatically bolster his campaign.
But you can't count on those unknowns. They rarely happen. So, his chance is this week and next and if he can't get it done then, he ain't gonna get it done at all.
It's a stark reality that has to leave him and his campaign concerned. I know I would be if I was a Romney supporter.
subterranean
(3,427 posts)Vote suppression and black box voting will take care of the rest. Republicans are already hard at work on that in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
MightyMopar
(735 posts)One reason the Koch brothers picked Ayn Ryan is for plausibility.
still_one
(92,060 posts)Everything to keep people from voting, and the MSM for the most part gives them more exposure
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)which has Romney up and has been trending Romney for a few weeks.
So, yes, depending on the poll, Romney hasn't taken Obama.
Grown2Hate
(2,009 posts)Cosmocat
(14,558 posts)we have the convention, when regardless of how robotic and clueless he will be, the media WILL try to give Romney a big boost, then tout that as the evidence that he is making a move.
The quick turnaround to the D convention and him being the train wreck he is, should bring it back to about a draw.
But, as others noted, they have a boatload of cash, and you will see HUNDREDS of millions poured into the "swing" states, and the voter suppression and and possible september/october issues.
I like BOs' chances, you are right that as of now, it is pretty much a baked cake, but at the same time they have played the long game and have the resources to make that late move.