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Fri Aug 10, 2012, 07:56 AM

 

Nate Silver pooh pooh's Fox and CNN polls

Two new polls show Obama opening a nice lead, as you may know; but Gallup remains steady and Rasmussen shows a Romney lead; plus people have been watching the olympics. Therefore, Obama's lead has increased just a tiny bit or none at all; that basically the weak argument Nate Silver just made.

Romney "shouldn't panic" because he's down by 7 and 9 in these two polls, Nate concludes.

I'd like to add that people can watch the olympics AND read a newspaper or watch something else such as the news that Romney is hiding something on his taxes and outsourced jobs.

Another piece of the argument crumbles when once realizes that Rasmussen has a a vested intersest in the outcome of this race: http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/03/30/independent-pollster-scott-rasmussen-headlines/186270

Read Nate's piece here:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/aug-9-national-polls-shouldnt-panic-romney/

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Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver pooh pooh's Fox and CNN polls (Original post)
Marzupialis Aug 2012 OP
BeyondGeography Aug 2012 #1
Ebadlun Aug 2012 #2
aquart Aug 2012 #3
Drunken Irishman Aug 2012 #9
progressivebydesign Aug 2012 #10
Cosmocat Aug 2012 #4
WI_DEM Aug 2012 #5
Robbins Aug 2012 #8
woolldog Aug 2012 #14
DCBob Aug 2012 #6
Arkana Aug 2012 #7
grantcart Aug 2012 #11
ailsagirl Aug 2012 #12
MjolnirTime Aug 2012 #13

Response to Marzupialis (Original post)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 08:00 AM

1. Because everyone knows about that famous Incumbent Olympics Bounce

He got paid for that analysis?

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Response to Marzupialis (Original post)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 08:06 AM

2. I think we have to respect Nate for his past record

even when it's stuff we don't like to hear.

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Response to Ebadlun (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 08:27 AM

3. Yes. He is very annoying that way.

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Response to Ebadlun (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 02:52 PM

9. What past record?

He called the 2008 and 2010 midterms like everyone else in the media. Stop acting like Nate somehow went against the tide and called an election no one else saw coming.

Nate Silver is nothing special. His analyst four years ago was no different than 90% of other amateurs who looked at the polls and concluded Obama would win.

So, no, I don't have to respect Nate for his past record - no more than I respect myself for calling every state in '08, except Indiana.

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Response to Ebadlun (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 03:06 PM

10. Meh. He's probably taking money from Rasmussen on the side.

There are just some people here who embrace the bad polls. If even Fox News and ABC have the President up, why in the world would anyone think that Rasmussen (which is known to be a right wing pollster) is the only accurate one?

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Response to Marzupialis (Original post)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 09:30 AM

4. This is a normalization

No FRUCKING way Romney should have been tied of a point or two behind BO in July.

None.

He got a bounce when he became the presumptive R nominee, and that was likely to get him in the range.

But, he has been disaster machine, one gaffe after another, and I am sorry, there is NO WAY that BO should not have gotten a bounce after the AHCA got the stamp of approval from the Supreme Court. NONE. That was a MASSIVE win for BO, and it would have been something that was a major blow had it turned the other way. But, polling showed almost no movement within two weeks of it.

IMO, BO with a 5 point lead give or take is the TRUE measure of this race right now, in the context of a "liberal" media intent on trying to make it a horse race.

THAT being said, Romney IS going to pull to a tie, give or take, or a slight lead, with his VP pick and convention, and it will extend into the D convention. GREAT timing for the Ds with their quick turnaround. The media WILL be all giddy over the R convention and push a run to him generally, then point to that as some major problem for BO.

It will likely normalize about two weeks after the D convention with BO regaining a small, but clear lead. From that point Romney will hurt himself by being himself - mean, angry and flat unlikeable vs BO being cool and likeable.

The only variable remains an "October surprise" relative to the economy or national security.

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Response to Marzupialis (Original post)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 09:36 AM

5. Well then he's also ignoring the Pew and Ipsos polls as well...

We now have four major polls showing Obama with leads of about 7-10 points. When will the "Great Nate" begin to see that maybe there is a trend and that tracking polls such as RAS & Gallup are not always reliable?

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #5)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 10:43 AM

8. MSM

Nate works for the New York Times.It's different than when he was Independent.The MSM Is telling thos ewho work for It to help
sell a close race.Harball tries to poopoo PPP as Democratic leaning poll.PPP's colorado poll was dismissed In favor or Q's.

Romney will get bounce from convention.It will get closer In non gallup and RAS Polls.Obama will get bounce from his convention.

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Response to Robbins (Reply #8)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 03:52 PM

14. I think Nate is very concerned these days

with appearing to be non-biased and non partisan. And he bends over backwards to be fair and ends up equivocating a lot

I too liked it better when he was independent, when he just called it like he saw it without worrying about what others (conservatives) might think.

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Response to Marzupialis (Original post)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 09:50 AM

6. Well, Nate is part of the MSM which of course desperately wants/needs a horse race.

They are looking for all sorts of excuses to dismiss any chance of an Obama blowout.

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Response to Marzupialis (Original post)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 10:31 AM

7. While Nate's right that Romney shouldn't panic,

there is no denying a shift towards Obama in the polling numbers, no matter how many shitty polls Rasmussen releases.

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Response to Marzupialis (Original post)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 03:29 PM

11. Romney shouldn't panic because of these two polls


He should panic because Nate Silver is only giving him a 26% chance of winning.

And Intrade has him down to 38.1

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Response to Marzupialis (Original post)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 03:38 PM

12. Rasmussen = Fox

Now that I know that, I automatically discount any polls by them, even if it shows Obama WAY up. They can't be trusted.

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Response to Marzupialis (Original post)

Fri Aug 10, 2012, 03:39 PM

13. If everybody knows who's going to win, Nate's out of a job. Simple as that.

 

He's not just a facts man anymore.

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