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Thu Aug 2, 2012, 06:23 PM

Obama Extends Electoral College Advantage. FiveThirtyEight

Barack Obama’s standing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast reached its strongest position to date on Tuesday as a result of favorable polls in a set of swing states. The forecast model now gives Mr. Obama a 70.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 69.0 percent on Monday and from 65.0 percent last Tuesday.

Three of the polls were conducted by Quinnipiac University in conjunction with The New York Times and CBS News. The polls gave Mr. Obama leads of 6 points in each of Ohio and Florida, and an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania.

In each state, the polls are at the high end of the range of numbers produced by other polling firms. As we frequently advise, no one set of polls — no matter how reputable the pollster — should be read as gospel. Differences in the numbers from survey firm to survey firm often reflect sampling error or methodological differences rather than any fundamental change in the condition of the race.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/aug-1-obama-extends-electoral-college-advantage/?ref=politics

---------------

Sorry if repeat.

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 06:27 PM

1. Elleng, I just don't understand these numbers with so many people being disenfranchised in PA.

Well over a million according to another thread. But any good news is good news. Got to keep our heads up here. Still a while until November. Thanks, this is the first time I've seen this.

Since you are in the northeast, now are these in comparison to the Wall Street Journal and Pew polling statistics?

I think the one would show what business wants, the other is just a long-time polling firm. It seems we mostly hear about the Rasmussen and other polls that are said to be slanted to the right wing views.


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Response to freshwest (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 06:39 PM

2. WSJ does good work generally, fresh,

even though their editorial policies have been horrid for years. Don't know about their polling, but I'd watch this one, FiveThirtyEight, as Nate Silver is a pro in evaluating what's what.

As to Pennsylvania, word/rumor/expectation is the disenfranchising rules will be tossed by courts. As these polls reflect what voters really want, I'll give them credence.

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Response to elleng (Reply #2)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 06:41 PM

3. That's good news. And I just went looking and found a favorable Pew poll, too.

Still, it's a long way to November. Got our local ballots all ready for our August elections and made sure we are good to go in November. Have increased my rather pitiful donations as well, but it's all I can do. Thanks.

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Response to freshwest (Reply #3)

Fri Aug 3, 2012, 07:57 AM

12. E-mail eschlick@roadrunner.com -- JUST SEND AN E-MAIL TO GET INFORMATION ROMNEY ON TRACK TO LOSE

PLEASE FORWARD...

ROMNEY ON TRACK TO LOSE ELECTION

Romney’s financial manipulations have, in the last 48 hours, exploded from mysterious shouldering embers into a political bonfire that could consume his entire campaign.
Romney is calling President Obama a liar and Obama is continuing his call for Romney to release full information about his financial manipulations and more than one year of tax returns.
Articles in the Washington Post and Boston Globe have probed and continue to probe into Romney’s convoluted finances and his years as CEO and owner of Bain Capital. Romney has called for retraction of these widely quoted articles without success.
For a Rachel Maddow interview with the Boston Globe writer who probed Romney’s SEC reports click here: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-rachel-maddow-... .
For a broader discussion of Romney’s financial manipulations on Morning Joe click here: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/morning-joe/481735... .
Either Mitt Romney was "sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president" of Bain Capital from 1999-2002, when all sorts of ugly outsourcing and vulture fund activities were taking place, or he was just listed as "sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president" on the company's documents, which means he was simply a figurehead collecting cash generated by said ugly outsourcing and vulture fund activities.
There appears to be more than ample multiple evidence that Romney is not telling the truth about completely leaving Bain after 1999. If you want to read all the details:
1. Click here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/12/mitt... ;
2. Click here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/12/us-... ;
3.Click here: http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/07/romne... ;
4. Click here: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/b... .
And these articles on Romney/Bain only scratch the surface. After the Boston Globe article on Thursday the Internet lit up like a Christmas tree as everyone with access seemed to have something to report.

More MoJo coverage of Mitt Romney (http://www.motherjones.com/category/tags/romn... ):
►The Mystery of Romney's Exit From Bain:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/m... ;
►Romney Invested in Medical-Waste Firm That Disposed of Aborted Fetuses, Government Documents Show: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/r... ;
►Romney Tax Tips: 10 Ways to Stiff the IRS:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/t... ;
►Mitt Romney's Long History of Misremembering His Past:http://www.motherjones.co m/politics/2012/06/mitt-romney -history-problem;
►Get-Rich-Quick Profiteers Love Mitt Romney, and He Loves Them Back:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/m... ;
►How Romney Fibs—and Gets Away With It:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/r... .
Of course the Obama campaign wasted no time getting out TV ads on the subject. One of the most recent has Romney singing “God Bless America” while the graphics pound him for his financial manipulations. Click here:http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/14... . Voters in the swing states are getting their first glimpse behind the mask of Romney’s polished campaign performance.
This all brings back Richard Nixon’s famous statement,“I am not a crook.”
The problem for Romney is that it is impossible for him to win an election campaign based on whether or not he is a potential criminal who has lied on legally required reports. Every day the media probes deeper into the Romney financial paper trail and reveals more and more conflicts between Romney’s personally signed reports and his recorded campaign statements is a day closer to his political defeat. If the present political bonfire doesn’t die down soon the GOP may decide at its late August convention to throw Romney under the bus.

Ed Schlick

AP News

PLEASE FORWARD...
ROMNEY ON TRACK TO LOSE ELECTION
Romney’s financial manipulations have, in the last 48 hours, exploded from mysterious shouldering embers into a political bonfire that could consume his entire campaign.
Romney is calling President Obama a liar and Obama is continuing his call for Romney to release full information about his financial manipulations and more than one year of tax returns.
Articles in the Washington Post and Boston Globe have probed and continue to probe into Romney’s convoluted finances and his years as CEO and owner of Bain Capital. Romney has called for retraction of these widely quoted articles without success.
For a Rachel Maddow interview with the Boston Globe writer who probed Romney’s SEC reports click here: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-rachel-maddow-... .
For a broader discussion of Romney’s financial manipulations on Morning Joe click here: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/morning-joe/481735... .
Either Mitt Romney was "sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president" of Bain Capital from 1999-2002, when all sorts of ugly outsourcing and vulture fund activities were taking place, or he was just listed as "sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president" on the company's documents, which means he was simply a figurehead collecting cash generated by said ugly outsourcing and vulture fund activities.
There appears to be more than ample multiple evidence that Romney is not telling the truth about completely leaving Bain after 1999. If you want to read all the details:
1. Click here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/12/mitt... ;
2. Click here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/12/us-... ;
3.Click here: http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/07/romne... ;
4. Click here: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/b... .
And these articles on Romney/Bain only scratch the surface. After the Boston Globe article on Thursday the Internet lit up like a Christmas tree as everyone with access seemed to have something to report.
More MoJo coverage of Mitt Romney (http://www.motherjones.com/category/tags/romn... ):
►The Mystery of Romney's Exit From Bain:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/m... ;
►Romney Invested in Medical-Waste Firm That Disposed of Aborted Fetuses, Government Documents Show: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/r... ;
►Romney Tax Tips: 10 Ways to Stiff the IRS:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/t... ;
►Mitt Romney's Long History of Misremembering His Past:http://www.motherjones.co m/politics/2012/06/mitt-romney -history-problem;
►Get-Rich-Quick Profiteers Love Mitt Romney, and He Loves Them Back:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/m... ;
►How Romney Fibs—and Gets Away With It:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/r... .
Of course the Obama campaign wasted no time getting out TV ads on the subject. One of the most recent has Romney singing “God Bless America” while the graphics pound him for his financial manipulations. Click here:http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/14... . Voters in the swing states are getting their first glimpse behind the mask of Romney’s polished campaign performance.

This all brings back Richard Nixon’s famous statement,“I am not a crook.”

The problem for Romney is that it is impossible for him to win an election campaign based on whether or not he is a potential criminal who has lied on legally required reports. Every day the media probes deeper into the Romney financial paper trail and reveals more and more conflicts between Romney’s personally signed reports and his recorded campaign statements is a day closer to his political defeat. If the present political bonfire doesn’t die down soon the GOP may decide at its late August convention to throw Romney under the bus.

Ed Schlick
WOLFEBORO, N.H.(AP)— President Barack Obama is keeping up a drumbeat of skepticism over Mitt Romney's insistence — displayed in a blitz of TV interviews — that he stepped down from his private equity firm years earlier than federal records indicate.

Obama planned another day of campaigning in Virginia on Saturday, a state he won in 2008 but before that last supported a Democratic presidential nominee in 1964. Advisers said he would remind voters of the discrepancies between Securities and Exchange Commission filings and Romney's recollection of his role at the Boston-based firm.

His re-election campaign released an ad that repeated its allegation that Romney's Bain Capital shipped American jobs to China and Mexico; that Romney has personal wealth in investments in Switzerland, Bermuda and the Cayman Islands; and that as governor of Massachusetts, he outsourced state jobs to India.

"Mitt Romney's not the solution. He's the problem," Obama's latest ad says as it plays video of Romney awkwardly singing "America the Beautiful."

The ad was set to run in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The ad, targeting Romney's vast personal wealth, comes as Democrats — and some Republicans — call for Romney to release tax returns going back several years. Romney has said anew that he won't go beyond releasing his 2010 tax records and, before the election, his 2011 taxes.

"You can never satisfy the opposition research team of the Obama organization," Romney told CBS on Friday. In the same round of interviews in which he defended his account of his role at Bain, Romney said Obama owed him an apology for an aide's suggestion that the Security and Exchange Commission filings, if false, could bring a felony charge.

"This is simply beneath the dignity of the presidency of the United States," Romney told ABC.

It wasn't just Obama, though, pushing the presumptive Republican nominee to put the issue of his tax returns and wealth to rest.

"There is no whining in politics," chided John Weaver, a veteran Republican strategist. "Stop demanding an apology, release your tax returns."

For full AP article click here: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-07-14/bai...


Contact:
Ed Schlick
Executive Director
Maine People’s Voting Coalition
E-mail eschlick@roadrunner.com

YOU CAN JOIN THE COALITION – JUST SEND AN E-MAIL TO GET INFORMATION

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Response to ajain31 (Reply #12)

Fri Aug 3, 2012, 12:00 PM

16. Hi, ajain31, you did a lot of work with all those links and are new, please make an OP.

This is a lot of information for a reply. I applaud your enthusiasm. I see you improved each time you posted.

You can call it ROMNEY ON TRACK TO LOSE ELECTION, but it would be best to title it, Romney On Track To Lose Election, without the capitals.

Thanks for that. Welcome to DU.

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 07:59 PM

4. Dad took a Poll call last week when I was there.

It was at least a 15 minute call.

First of all I was astonished that my red neck Dad said he was in favor of Obama and Senator Boswell; Mildly in favor, but still in favor.

Second it got me wondering. I don't ever get poll calls, because I don't have a cell phone. How can the polls not be skewed somewhat? I think it would skew the results toward older and retired voters. How do polling agencies factor in voters with no land line?

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Response to KegCreekDem (Reply #4)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 08:11 PM

5. I HAVE a cell phone, and never get poll calls;

used to, 6+ years ago when had land line. No idea how they work these days.

Very happy to hear about your Dad's responses!

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 09:35 PM

6. Apparenty Mitt and Obama have pulled PA ads

One of the talking heads (maybe Tweety??) said yesterday that both have pulled a bunch of ads in PA because it is no longer considered a swing state but solidly Dem!!!

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Response to DemocracyInaction (Reply #6)

Fri Aug 3, 2012, 12:09 AM

7. Yesss! n/t

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Fri Aug 3, 2012, 01:09 AM

8. Nice, but...........

In about eight weeks, about SEVEN HUNDRED FIFTY MILLION DOLLARS' worth of pure hate-Obama
ads will inundate the TV channels and clog the radio airwaves, and there are a LOT of zombies out
there in voter-land with valid voter registrations and empty intellects waiting to be filled by advertising
tailor-made for people who can't or won't think for themselves. Votes in closely contested states will
be counted by Diebold and other similarly "pre-programmable" Republican-owned and -operated machines,
and/or supervised by partisan Republican operatives in crucial states (see if the names Katherine Harris
or Kenneth Blackwell ring a bell?) in crucial positions of authority.

Like with Al Gore and John Kerry, I am confident that Barack Obama will win the election. But it is equally
vital that he win the subsequent vote-counting. Although for now, his advantage seems comfortable, it
will not last, even if he should prevail in the end.

The Republicans know they will lose this presidential election. They will still try to capture the presidency.
Unfortunately, in the United States, the two are no longer synonymous. Remember Stalin: "Those who
cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." The Republicans are the
ultimate Stalinists.

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Response to DFW (Reply #8)

Fri Aug 3, 2012, 01:14 AM

9. Money can't buy Rmoney love.

Love. The President has a lot of that, and he wants more: http://www.democraticunderground.com/101745880

No amount of corrupt money can buy that.

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Response to Amonester (Reply #9)

Fri Aug 3, 2012, 01:58 AM

10. No, but it can buy Romney a lot of hate.

Republicans feed off an emotional diet completely different from ours.

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Response to DFW (Reply #10)

Fri Aug 3, 2012, 11:54 AM

15. Clearly proven by the mass turnout at the Chick fil A's. None of them will vote for Obama!

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Response to DFW (Reply #8)

Fri Aug 3, 2012, 08:00 AM

13. ROMNEY ON TRACK TO LOSE ELECTIONE-mail eschlick@roadrunner.com TO GET INFORMATION

PLEASE FORWARD...

ROMNEY ON TRACK TO LOSE ELECTION

Romney’s financial manipulations have, in the last 48 hours, exploded from mysterious shouldering embers into a political bonfire that could consume his entire campaign.
Romney is calling President Obama a liar and Obama is continuing his call for Romney to release full information about his financial manipulations and more than one year of tax returns.
Articles in the Washington Post and Boston Globe have probed and continue to probe into Romney’s convoluted finances and his years as CEO and owner of Bain Capital. Romney has called for retraction of these widely quoted articles without success.
For a Rachel Maddow interview with the Boston Globe writer who probed Romney’s SEC reports click here: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-rachel-maddow-... .
For a broader discussion of Romney’s financial manipulations on Morning Joe click here: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/morning-joe/481735... .
Either Mitt Romney was "sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president" of Bain Capital from 1999-2002, when all sorts of ugly outsourcing and vulture fund activities were taking place, or he was just listed as "sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president" on the company's documents, which means he was simply a figurehead collecting cash generated by said ugly outsourcing and vulture fund activities.
There appears to be more than ample multiple evidence that Romney is not telling the truth about completely leaving Bain after 1999. If you want to read all the details:
1. Click here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/12/mitt... ;
2. Click here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/12/us-... ;
3.Click here: http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/07/romne... ;
4. Click here: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/b... .
And these articles on Romney/Bain only scratch the surface. After the Boston Globe article on Thursday the Internet lit up like a Christmas tree as everyone with access seemed to have something to report.

More MoJo coverage of Mitt Romney (http://www.motherjones.com/category/tags/romn... ):
►The Mystery of Romney's Exit From Bain:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/m... ;
►Romney Invested in Medical-Waste Firm That Disposed of Aborted Fetuses, Government Documents Show: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/r... ;
►Romney Tax Tips: 10 Ways to Stiff the IRS:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/t... ;
►Mitt Romney's Long History of Misremembering His Past:http://www.motherjones.co m/politics/2012/06/mitt-romney -history-problem;
►Get-Rich-Quick Profiteers Love Mitt Romney, and He Loves Them Back:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/m... ;
►How Romney Fibs—and Gets Away With It:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/r... .
Of course the Obama campaign wasted no time getting out TV ads on the subject. One of the most recent has Romney singing “God Bless America” while the graphics pound him for his financial manipulations. Click here:http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/14... . Voters in the swing states are getting their first glimpse behind the mask of Romney’s polished campaign performance.
This all brings back Richard Nixon’s famous statement,“I am not a crook.”
The problem for Romney is that it is impossible for him to win an election campaign based on whether or not he is a potential criminal who has lied on legally required reports. Every day the media probes deeper into the Romney financial paper trail and reveals more and more conflicts between Romney’s personally signed reports and his recorded campaign statements is a day closer to his political defeat. If the present political bonfire doesn’t die down soon the GOP may decide at its late August convention to throw Romney under the bus.

Ed Schlick

AP News

PLEASE FORWARD...
ROMNEY ON TRACK TO LOSE ELECTION
Romney’s financial manipulations have, in the last 48 hours, exploded from mysterious shouldering embers into a political bonfire that could consume his entire campaign.
Romney is calling President Obama a liar and Obama is continuing his call for Romney to release full information about his financial manipulations and more than one year of tax returns.
Articles in the Washington Post and Boston Globe have probed and continue to probe into Romney’s convoluted finances and his years as CEO and owner of Bain Capital. Romney has called for retraction of these widely quoted articles without success.
For a Rachel Maddow interview with the Boston Globe writer who probed Romney’s SEC reports click here: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-rachel-maddow-... .
For a broader discussion of Romney’s financial manipulations on Morning Joe click here: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/morning-joe/481735... .
Either Mitt Romney was "sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president" of Bain Capital from 1999-2002, when all sorts of ugly outsourcing and vulture fund activities were taking place, or he was just listed as "sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president" on the company's documents, which means he was simply a figurehead collecting cash generated by said ugly outsourcing and vulture fund activities.
There appears to be more than ample multiple evidence that Romney is not telling the truth about completely leaving Bain after 1999. If you want to read all the details:
1. Click here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/12/mitt... ;
2. Click here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/12/us-... ;
3.Click here: http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/07/romne... ;
4. Click here: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/b... .
And these articles on Romney/Bain only scratch the surface. After the Boston Globe article on Thursday the Internet lit up like a Christmas tree as everyone with access seemed to have something to report.
More MoJo coverage of Mitt Romney (http://www.motherjones.com/category/tags/romn... ):
►The Mystery of Romney's Exit From Bain:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/m... ;
►Romney Invested in Medical-Waste Firm That Disposed of Aborted Fetuses, Government Documents Show: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/r... ;
►Romney Tax Tips: 10 Ways to Stiff the IRS:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/t... ;
►Mitt Romney's Long History of Misremembering His Past:http://www.motherjones.co m/politics/2012/06/mitt-romney -history-problem;
►Get-Rich-Quick Profiteers Love Mitt Romney, and He Loves Them Back:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/m... ;
►How Romney Fibs—and Gets Away With It:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/04/r... .
Of course the Obama campaign wasted no time getting out TV ads on the subject. One of the most recent has Romney singing “God Bless America” while the graphics pound him for his financial manipulations. Click here:http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/14... . Voters in the swing states are getting their first glimpse behind the mask of Romney’s polished campaign performance.

This all brings back Richard Nixon’s famous statement,“I am not a crook.”

The problem for Romney is that it is impossible for him to win an election campaign based on whether or not he is a potential criminal who has lied on legally required reports. Every day the media probes deeper into the Romney financial paper trail and reveals more and more conflicts between Romney’s personally signed reports and his recorded campaign statements is a day closer to his political defeat. If the present political bonfire doesn’t die down soon the GOP may decide at its late August convention to throw Romney under the bus.

Ed Schlick
WOLFEBORO, N.H.(AP)— President Barack Obama is keeping up a drumbeat of skepticism over Mitt Romney's insistence — displayed in a blitz of TV interviews — that he stepped down from his private equity firm years earlier than federal records indicate.

Obama planned another day of campaigning in Virginia on Saturday, a state he won in 2008 but before that last supported a Democratic presidential nominee in 1964. Advisers said he would remind voters of the discrepancies between Securities and Exchange Commission filings and Romney's recollection of his role at the Boston-based firm.

His re-election campaign released an ad that repeated its allegation that Romney's Bain Capital shipped American jobs to China and Mexico; that Romney has personal wealth in investments in Switzerland, Bermuda and the Cayman Islands; and that as governor of Massachusetts, he outsourced state jobs to India.

"Mitt Romney's not the solution. He's the problem," Obama's latest ad says as it plays video of Romney awkwardly singing "America the Beautiful."

The ad was set to run in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The ad, targeting Romney's vast personal wealth, comes as Democrats — and some Republicans — call for Romney to release tax returns going back several years. Romney has said anew that he won't go beyond releasing his 2010 tax records and, before the election, his 2011 taxes.

"You can never satisfy the opposition research team of the Obama organization," Romney told CBS on Friday. In the same round of interviews in which he defended his account of his role at Bain, Romney said Obama owed him an apology for an aide's suggestion that the Security and Exchange Commission filings, if false, could bring a felony charge.

"This is simply beneath the dignity of the presidency of the United States," Romney told ABC.

It wasn't just Obama, though, pushing the presumptive Republican nominee to put the issue of his tax returns and wealth to rest.

"There is no whining in politics," chided John Weaver, a veteran Republican strategist. "Stop demanding an apology, release your tax returns."

For full AP article click here: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-07-14/bai...


Contact:
Ed Schlick
Executive Director
Maine People’s Voting Coalition
E-mail eschlick@roadrunner.com

YOU CAN JOIN THE COALITION – JUST SEND AN E-MAIL TO GET INFORMATION

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Response to DFW (Reply #8)

Fri Aug 3, 2012, 11:52 AM

14. +1,000

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Response to elleng (Original post)

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