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Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:43 AM

Nate Silver; "Ohio polls show trouble for Romney" downgrades Romney chance to 31%


We are seeing the first major shift in the campaign. The significance of this is big because all pollsters have, so far, noted how static the race has become and the likelihood of a big swing back is not great as so few people are undecided.



Here is Silver on Ohio (the whole article is useful, he shows that Romney has almost no chance to win the electoral college without Ohio)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/july-27-ohio-polls-show-trouble-for-romney/


Nowhere was this more apparent than in Ohio, where there were two new polls out on Friday. One of them, from the firm We Ask America, gave Mr. Obama an eight-point lead there. Another, from Magellan Strategies, put Mr. Obama up by two points.




Now Drunken Irishman brings us news of yet another poll (Quinnipac Obama + 6) that shows similar results for Ohio:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/125162820#post20

This would seem to indicate that the outsourcing and outbanking ads are having a huge impact in Ohio.

Note that Nate Silver has downgraded Romney's chances of winning the electoral college to 31%.

There is no reasonable path to an electoral college victory for Romney without Ohio. Portman is the only VP pick that helps in Ohio, so Portman's chances of being on the ticket just went up.

Romney's chances on Intrade have gone below 40 %

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

18 replies, 3572 views

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Arrow 18 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver; "Ohio polls show trouble for Romney" downgrades Romney chance to 31% (Original post)
grantcart Aug 2012 OP
rfranklin Aug 2012 #1
grantcart Aug 2012 #4
WI_DEM Aug 2012 #2
Lasher Aug 2012 #3
cheezmaka Aug 2012 #16
thevoiceofreason Aug 2012 #5
thevoiceofreason Aug 2012 #6
grantcart Aug 2012 #11
33Greeper Aug 2012 #7
cheezmaka Aug 2012 #17
Kablooie Aug 2012 #8
Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2012 #9
Javaman Aug 2012 #10
ailsagirl Aug 2012 #12
Thrill Aug 2012 #13
grantcart Aug 2012 #15
Orlandodem Aug 2012 #14
davidpdx Aug 2012 #18

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:47 AM

1. Are they factoring in the voter suppression laws?

 

That may have a significant impact.

Then there's the "my finger slipped on the keyboard Diebold machines to think about.

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Response to rfranklin (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:00 AM

4. Nate Silver has.


He came to the conclusion that with the current polls only PA would likely to be affected and only a couple of percent.

One of his points was that the people that they are trying to suprress represent many demographics that have lower than average voting.

There is another dynamic that nothing motivates people more than telling them they can't do something and that it might actually energize registration efforts.

Obviously PA and FL are two areas where we should have the greatest concern and mount the greatest counter offensive.

Of course the only case that we know about are Republicans who maintained a fraudulent address in MASS and other Republicans like

this guy

http://rnla.org/blogs/blogs/public/archive/2012/05/14/los-angeles-councilman-charged-with-voter-fraud.aspx

or this guy

http://freakoutnation.com/2012/07/26/busted-republican-candidates-companion-voted-for-5-years-after-her-death/

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:56 AM

2. We gotta keep the fight up...

after their convention they will begin to spend millions. This is good news, but it can change quickly, too.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 10:08 AM

3. Looks like Romney's foreign tour is having an impact.

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Response to Lasher (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:21 PM

16. Definitely

Mitt Romney has shown us that he has little or NO foreign relational experience...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:27 AM

5. And there is more

On the Q polls just released for Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Q used a Likely Voter model. Nate has been adding a few percent to Romney in prior polls because they used a Registered Voter model. No such skew likely for these polls.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:30 AM

6. AND

Nate downgraded Romney before factoring in the Q polls. Once these are considered later today, who knows?

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Response to thevoiceofreason (Reply #6)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 04:32 PM

11. Well I think just about everyone knows how this is going to end up, we just have to

press the advantage.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:59 AM

7. We are in the fight

of our lives to defeat the Republican False Christian, Women and Minority hating Corporate Racist Fascist Beast! No time to be complacent!

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Response to 33Greeper (Reply #7)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:24 PM

17. We have to continue

this fight to the end! Can't afford for this election to end up like either Gore or Kerry! I will not be complacent until the battle is OVER and victory is won...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:01 PM

8. I still think the GOP convention will pull out a new surprise nominee.

Romney is just too weak.
The fact that the GOP leaders are tearing him down publicly indicates that they won't keep him.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:09 PM

9. Wait until the jobs report comes out tomorrow. Hopefully it'll be good news.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:40 PM

10. is blackwell still the attn gen of ohio?

I seem to recall all sorts of bullshit with electronic voting there in '04 and blackwell claiming a state emergency regarding a reported terrorist threat to stop the counting.

ahh fucked up times.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:18 PM

12. kick

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:31 PM

13. Look for his SuperPacs to bombard Ohio now

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Response to Thrill (Reply #13)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:59 PM

15. Problem is that bombarding is not going to be effective with well defined sides


less than 10% of swing state voters are undecided. Once they start seeing the ads over and over again they actually will react against them.

Then there is this. A campaign guy told me yesterday that all of the key media spots in the swing states in the last 3 weeks of the campaign have already been bought and paid for.

There is only so many mailings that you can send out.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:58 PM

14. Is Obama running ads showing Rmoney's support for Kasich's

Anti union law that Ohioans rejected?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 08:15 AM

18. That makes sense

Someone posted the article The Palin Effect which stated Romney won't be able to nominate someone without at least some experience. He's going to have to pick a white man and considering Ohio is important it looks like it might be Portman.

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