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Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:43 AM

grantcart (38,731 posts)

Nate Silver; "Ohio polls show trouble for Romney" downgrades Romney chance to 31%

We are seeing the first major shift in the campaign. The significance of this is big because all pollsters have, so far, noted how static the race has become and the likelihood of a big swing back is not great as so few people are undecided.

Here is Silver on Ohio (the whole article is useful, he shows that Romney has almost no chance to win the electoral college without Ohio)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/july-27-ohio-polls-show-trouble-for-romney/

Nowhere was this more apparent than in Ohio, where there were two new polls out on Friday. One of them, from the firm We Ask America, gave Mr. Obama an eight-point lead there. Another, from Magellan Strategies, put Mr. Obama up by two points.

Now Drunken Irishman brings us news of yet another poll (Quinnipac Obama + 6) that shows similar results for Ohio:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/125162820#post20

This would seem to indicate that the outsourcing and outbanking ads are having a huge impact in Ohio.

Note that Nate Silver has downgraded Romney's chances of winning the electoral college to 31%.

There is no reasonable path to an electoral college victory for Romney without Ohio. Portman is the only VP pick that helps in Ohio, so Portman's chances of being on the ticket just went up.

Romney's chances on Intrade have gone below 40 %

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

18 replies, 2708 views

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18 replies	Author	Time	Post
Nate Silver; "Ohio polls show trouble for Romney" downgrades Romney chance to 31% (Original post)	grantcart	Aug 2012	OP
Are they factoring in the voter suppression laws?	rfranklin	Aug 2012	#1
Nate Silver has.	grantcart	Aug 2012	#4
We gotta keep the fight up...	WI_DEM	Aug 2012	#2
Looks like Romney's foreign tour is having an impact.	Lasher	Aug 2012	#3
Definitely	cheezmaka	Aug 2012	#16
And there is more	thevoiceofreason	Aug 2012	#5
AND	thevoiceofreason	Aug 2012	#6
Well I think just about everyone knows how this is going to end up, we just have to	grantcart	Aug 2012	#11
We are in the fight	33Greeper	Aug 2012	#7
We have to continue	cheezmaka	Aug 2012	#17
I still think the GOP convention will pull out a new surprise nominee.	Kablooie	Aug 2012	#8
Wait until the jobs report comes out tomorrow. Hopefully it'll be good news.	Liberal_Stalwart71	Aug 2012	#9
is blackwell still the attn gen of ohio?	Javaman	Aug 2012	#10
kick	ailsagirl	Aug 2012	#12
Look for his SuperPacs to bombard Ohio now	Thrill	Aug 2012	#13
Problem is that bombarding is not going to be effective with well defined sides	grantcart	Aug 2012	#15
Is Obama running ads showing Rmoney's support for Kasich's	Orlandodem	Aug 2012	#14
That makes sense	davidpdx	Aug 2012	#18

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:47 AM

rfranklin (13,200 posts)

1. Are they factoring in the voter suppression laws?

Last edited Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:48 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

That may have a significant impact.

Then there's the "my finger slipped on the keyboard Diebold machines to think about.

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Response to rfranklin (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:00 AM

grantcart (38,731 posts)

4. Nate Silver has.

He came to the conclusion that with the current polls only PA would likely to be affected and only a couple of percent.

One of his points was that the people that they are trying to suprress represent many demographics that have lower than average voting.

There is another dynamic that nothing motivates people more than telling them they can't do something and that it might actually energize registration efforts.

Obviously PA and FL are two areas where we should have the greatest concern and mount the greatest counter offensive.

Of course the only case that we know about are Republicans who maintained a fraudulent address in MASS and other Republicans like

this guy

http://rnla.org/blogs/blogs/public/archive/2012/05/14/los-angeles-councilman-charged-with-voter-fraud.aspx

or this guy

http://freakoutnation.com/2012/07/26/busted-republican-candidates-companion-voted-for-5-years-after-her-death/

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:56 AM

WI_DEM (32,522 posts)

2. We gotta keep the fight up...

after their convention they will begin to spend millions. This is good news, but it can change quickly, too.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 10:08 AM

Lasher (20,466 posts)

3. Looks like Romney's foreign tour is having an impact.

Obama's gain has improved.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

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Response to Lasher (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:21 PM

cheezmaka (436 posts)

16. Definitely

Mitt Romney has shown us that he has little or NO foreign relational experience...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:27 AM

thevoiceofreason (3,407 posts)

5. And there is more

On the Q polls just released for Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Q used a Likely Voter model. Nate has been adding a few percent to Romney in prior polls because they used a Registered Voter model. No such skew likely for these polls.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:30 AM

thevoiceofreason (3,407 posts)

6. AND

Nate downgraded Romney before factoring in the Q polls. Once these are considered later today, who knows?

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Response to thevoiceofreason (Reply #6)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 04:32 PM

grantcart (38,731 posts)

11. Well I think just about everyone knows how this is going to end up, we just have to

press the advantage.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:59 AM

33Greeper (184 posts)

7. We are in the fight

of our lives to defeat the Republican False Christian, Women and Minority hating Corporate Racist Fascist Beast! No time to be complacent!

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Response to 33Greeper (Reply #7)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:24 PM

cheezmaka (436 posts)

17. We have to continue

this fight to the end! Can't afford for this election to end up like either Gore or Kerry! I will not be complacent until the battle is OVER and victory is won...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:01 PM

Kablooie (8,849 posts)

8. I still think the GOP convention will pull out a new surprise nominee.

Romney is just too weak.
The fact that the GOP leaders are tearing him down publicly indicates that they won't keep him.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:09 PM

Liberal_Stalwart71 (13,831 posts)

9. Wait until the jobs report comes out tomorrow. Hopefully it'll be good news.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:40 PM

Javaman (40,608 posts)

10. is blackwell still the attn gen of ohio?

I seem to recall all sorts of bullshit with electronic voting there in '04 and blackwell claiming a state emergency regarding a reported terrorist threat to stop the counting.

ahh fucked up times.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:18 PM

ailsagirl (9,580 posts)

12. kick

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:31 PM

Thrill (16,951 posts)

13. Look for his SuperPacs to bombard Ohio now

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Response to Thrill (Reply #13)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:59 PM

grantcart (38,731 posts)

15. Problem is that bombarding is not going to be effective with well defined sides

less than 10% of swing state voters are undecided. Once they start seeing the ads over and over again they actually will react against them.

Then there is this. A campaign guy told me yesterday that all of the key media spots in the swing states in the last 3 weeks of the campaign have already been bought and paid for.

There is only so many mailings that you can send out.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:58 PM

Orlandodem (998 posts)

14. Is Obama running ads showing Rmoney's support for Kasich's

Anti union law that Ohioans rejected?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 08:15 AM

davidpdx (8,779 posts)

18. That makes sense

Someone posted the article The Palin Effect which stated Romney won't be able to nominate someone without at least some experience. He's going to have to pick a white man and considering Ohio is important it looks like it might be Portman.

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Politics 2013 (Forum)