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Wed Aug 1, 2012, 06:00 AM

Quinnipiac: Obama +6 in OH, +6 in FL, +11 in PA

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/01/us/politics/01quinnipiac-new-york-times-cbs-poll.html

Good numbers!

39 replies, 4184 views

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Reply Quinnipiac: Obama +6 in OH, +6 in FL, +11 in PA (Original post)
Drunken Irishman Aug 2012 OP
oldhippydude Aug 2012 #1
jerseyjack Aug 2012 #5
Marzupialis Aug 2012 #23
yankeepants Aug 2012 #2
Motown_Johnny Aug 2012 #3
Hawaii Hiker Aug 2012 #6
liberal N proud Aug 2012 #4
Wounded Bear Aug 2012 #25
cheezmaka Aug 2012 #34
nxylas Aug 2012 #7
alcibiades_mystery Aug 2012 #8
democrat_patriot Aug 2012 #10
alcibiades_mystery Aug 2012 #11
cheezmaka Aug 2012 #35
flamingdem Aug 2012 #39
scheming daemons Aug 2012 #9
kenfrequed Aug 2012 #29
neeksgeek Aug 2012 #12
Deep13 Aug 2012 #13
INdemo Aug 2012 #14
LynneSin Aug 2012 #15
Wounded Bear Aug 2012 #26
LynneSin Aug 2012 #31
cheezmaka Aug 2012 #36
grantcart Aug 2012 #16
Hawaii Hiker Aug 2012 #19
grantcart Aug 2012 #20
Hawaii Hiker Aug 2012 #22
grantcart Aug 2012 #33
yellowcanine Aug 2012 #17
grantcart Aug 2012 #18
Tarheel_Dem Aug 2012 #24
yellowcanine Aug 2012 #28
Tarheel_Dem Aug 2012 #32
WI_DEM Aug 2012 #21
demosincebirth Aug 2012 #27
yellowcanine Aug 2012 #30
Bake Aug 2012 #37
flamingdem Aug 2012 #38

Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 06:08 AM

1. good numbers indeed

hope that the vote isn't suppressed in Pa or Fl..

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Response to oldhippydude (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 07:10 AM

5. I hope the voting computers aren't hacked.

 

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Response to jerseyjack (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:44 AM

23. Why didn't they hack them in 2008?

 

?

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 06:08 AM

2. They should be a lot gooder given the competition. n/t

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Response to yankeepants (Reply #2)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 06:35 AM

3. I dunno. 47% is pretty much the basement for either party now

A 47 - 53 split is huge in Presidential elections.


I'll take 6 points in places like FL and OH.

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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 07:14 AM

6. Getting 53% of the vote is quite an accomplishment especially in these divided times

In Reagan's 84 landslide, he got 58%, and the only places he lost were DC & Minnesota....

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 07:00 AM

4. That is excellent news

How far do those numbers have to be before I feel comfortable that they can't steal it. I think they would still try at 6%

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Response to liberal N proud (Reply #4)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:14 PM

25. "How far" is a tricky number to calculate...

Generally it's a very good sign when Pres Obama's numbers get above 50%.

As far as stealing anything, normally the spread would have to be within the margin of error, usually around 3-4%, to get away with it. So 5-6% is excellent on that front.

But you're right. they've been getting more brazen, and the theft factor plus the voter suppression factor could shift the numbers back into steal-able range.

So, no getting 'comfortable' this cycle. We need a solid GOTV effort, like 2008, to avoid another 2010, If we get out and vote, they can't win.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #25)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:05 PM

34. I agree 100%

I believe it wil take BOTH voter suppression and purging for the Republicans to "steal" this election. Dems would really have to "step" our game up...

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 07:22 AM

7. But Rasmussen has Romney 1 point ahead in Iowa

Or, to translate that into Republican: the only reliable pollster has Romney ahead in the only state that matters, since it is impossible to become President without winning Iowa. Hell, they might as well not even bother letting people vote in other states at all. And thanks to our diligence in protecting America from voter fraud, pretty soon, they won't.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:03 AM

8. Anymore questions about whether the Bain ads worked, or why ads were pulled in PA?



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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #8)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:11 AM

10. I would imagine they pulled PA 'cuz they're up by 11. Save some cash.


It is the whole narrative: Bain, taxes, secrecy and buffoonery in Europe.

I think deep down they Bush 2.0

Good news!

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Response to democrat_patriot (Reply #10)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:31 AM

11. Um, yeah

I wasn't really asking.

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Response to democrat_patriot (Reply #10)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:07 PM

35. I believe that's true

Might as well save some cash for the 4TH QUARTER!!!

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #8)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 01:21 PM

39. Glad the Chicago side won on this

I remember reading that there were many who thought it was the wrong angle

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:03 AM

9. but the media told us that the bain attacks werwnt working...

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Response to scheming daemons (Reply #9)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:31 PM

29. Hmm

Yeah, they never get anything wrong.

I think the media wants this election to be closer for a number of reasons and none of them have anything to do with an honest discussion of policy or for the sake of democratic principle.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:31 AM

12. And again we see...

Buried in the poll, we see that roughly 60% of Americans believe taxes should be raised on households with income greater than $250,000.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:33 AM

13. reasonableness gaining over snake oil. nt

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:51 AM

14. I like these headlines..something we would never see on NBC's

or actually any network site for that matter

"New poll shows Obama with significant lead in swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania"


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/new-poll-shows-obama-with-significant-lead-in-swing-states-of-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/2012/08/01/gJQAuvbxOX_blog.html?hpid=z1

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:54 AM

15. This is great news but we need to treat these states like we're 2 points behind

We have no idea how the voter ID & purges in these states are going to impact the final votes. They say there could be close to 800k voters in Pennsylvania alone that could be impacted by the Voter ID bill. Just to give you an idea of the type of impact that would have in Pennsylvania - Obama won PA by 10points in 2008 or 620,478 votes over John McCain. Since the vast majority of those 800K voters impacted by Voter ID bills are the elderly, the young and minorities mainly in the urban areas of Phillly and a bit from Pittsburgh - that could put Romney over the top of Obama. Romney could win simply because PA GOP created a law that would disenfranchise legal voters from their rights to vote.

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #15)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:16 PM

26. So far, I believe the court battle is going our way...

But we have to keep fighting.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #26)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:40 PM

31. It's looking good but until they rule it unconstitutional...

or put a stop to it, we have to fight like that is the norm in November.

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #15)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:12 PM

36. Since MI is "already" blue...

I probably need to go to PA to help get some of those voters in "compliance". The National Action Network is probably already there to help educate voters on the new ID laws but they STILL need all the help they can get...

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:00 AM

16. Something major has happened in Ohio

WeAskAmerica, a right wing poll is showing a similar move. They ran it twice because they were surprised that so many Republicans are going to Obama.

Given how static these numbers are then this is a big move.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125160887

Expect Portman to be VP.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #16)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:32 AM

19. Portman won't make much of a difference if President Obama is consistently leading

in Ohio by 5-7%....

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Response to Hawaii Hiker (Reply #19)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:34 AM

20. Portman is the only VP choice who has shown to be of any help in Ohio, the others have no impact.



He also isn't going to help him at all in Florida, Romney's other must have state.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #20)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:43 AM

22. Condi Rice in several polls could make things interesting as independents like her, BUT

she is pro-choice, so there is NO. WAY. she'll be accepted by the repub base as a VP, especially when you consider how all over the place Mitt has been on abortion...

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Response to grantcart (Reply #16)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 10:02 PM

33. kick

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:03 AM

17. Check out the results on this question.........

Does (the presidential candidate) care or not care about the needs
and problems of people like you?

Obama Does Does Not

FL 55 42

OH 55 43

PA 58 39


Romney

FL 42 49

OH 38 55

PA 39 54

Scroll down to page 5 of poll:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/01/us/politics/01quinnipiac-new-york-times-cbs-poll.html

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #17)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:21 AM

18. yep also note the clever way to use the tabs on this version

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/swing-state-polls

re: your point the commercials on Romney outsourcing and taxes is killing him, and he will not be able to recover.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #17)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:05 PM

24. WoW! Those are dramatic disparities. I wonder if we'll hear much discussion about this.

The M$M only seems interested when Mitt is either tied, or has a slight lead. The president doesn't get such favorable coverage.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #24)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:29 PM

28. We will hear about it soon enough. The press loves to talk about "likability" issues. Look at the

stupid "Who would you rather have a beer with" crap that went on in 2000 and 2004. And this year the "likability" difference is shaping up as a chasm in Obama's favor.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #28)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:03 PM

32. Agreed.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:37 AM

21. Must be why Obama (at least for now) stopped advertising in PA.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #21)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:23 PM

27. So is Rmoney, or he's slowing it way down

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #21)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:34 PM

30. I don't see how Romney closes the likability gap in Ohio with advertising.

And I don't think he can win Ohio without at least narrowing it. So I think his goose may be cooked there. Which means he must win Florida and probably Virginia as well if he is to have any chance. And then he probably still needs to knock off a big blue state such as Michigan.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 01:19 PM

37. Game, set, and match!

If it holds ... and I think it will not only hold but widen.

Bake

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 01:20 PM

38. Ah so this is why they stopped running ads in PA

nice

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