Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver: Obama up by 2% in Ohio more realistic than up by 8%
a Magellan Strategies is said to be more "realistic" than the We Ask America poll. Both were released today. Conducted in Ohio.
"Nowhere was this more apparent than in Ohio, where there were two new polls out on Friday. One of them, from the firm We Ask America, gave Mr. Obama an eight-point lead there. Another, from Magellan Strategies, put Mr. Obama up by two points.
Our model thinks the Magellan Strategies poll is a more realistic estimate of the state of play in Ohio. The model now forecasts a three-point victory for Mr. Obama there, which it translates to about a two-in-three chance of his winning the state given the uncertainty in the forecast."
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/july-27-ohio-polls-show-trouble-for-romney/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
5 replies, 1786 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (2)
ReplyReply to this post
5 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Nate Silver: Obama up by 2% in Ohio more realistic than up by 8% (Original Post)
Marzupialis
Jul 2012
OP
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)1. If Obama isn't up by 8 now he will be.
by the time Romney gets done with his insultathon and a few more visits to Ohio.
doc03
(35,148 posts)2. I spent the evening in Columbus last night, Rmoney attack ads on every
break. I really feel sorry for those people, they have to endure that for over three more months.
muntrv
(14,505 posts)3. Same here in SE Michigan. More republicker attack ads than Democratic ads.
crimson77
(305 posts)5. I feel terrible for people in Battlegrounds.
My aunt lives on the New Hampshire border and every 4 years she get's creamed with ads. I am in the Boston market so it's a little more bearable.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)4. I'd split the difference and say he is up by 5
both are GOP polling operations.