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Marzupialis

(398 posts)
Fri Jul 27, 2012, 10:54 PM Jul 2012

Nate Silver: Obama up by 2% in Ohio more realistic than up by 8%

a Magellan Strategies is said to be more "realistic" than the We Ask America poll. Both were released today. Conducted in Ohio.

"Nowhere was this more apparent than in Ohio, where there were two new polls out on Friday. One of them, from the firm We Ask America, gave Mr. Obama an eight-point lead there. Another, from Magellan Strategies, put Mr. Obama up by two points.

Our model thinks the Magellan Strategies poll is a more realistic estimate of the state of play in Ohio. The model now forecasts a three-point victory for Mr. Obama there, which it translates to about a two-in-three chance of his winning the state given the uncertainty in the forecast."


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/july-27-ohio-polls-show-trouble-for-romney/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
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Nate Silver: Obama up by 2% in Ohio more realistic than up by 8% (Original Post) Marzupialis Jul 2012 OP
If Obama isn't up by 8 now he will be. Kalidurga Jul 2012 #1
I spent the evening in Columbus last night, Rmoney attack ads on every doc03 Jul 2012 #2
Same here in SE Michigan. More republicker attack ads than Democratic ads. muntrv Jul 2012 #3
I feel terrible for people in Battlegrounds. crimson77 Jul 2012 #5
I'd split the difference and say he is up by 5 WI_DEM Jul 2012 #4

Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)
1. If Obama isn't up by 8 now he will be.
Fri Jul 27, 2012, 11:33 PM
Jul 2012

by the time Romney gets done with his insultathon and a few more visits to Ohio.

doc03

(35,148 posts)
2. I spent the evening in Columbus last night, Rmoney attack ads on every
Sat Jul 28, 2012, 12:28 AM
Jul 2012

break. I really feel sorry for those people, they have to endure that for over three more months.

 

crimson77

(305 posts)
5. I feel terrible for people in Battlegrounds.
Sat Jul 28, 2012, 03:29 AM
Jul 2012

My aunt lives on the New Hampshire border and every 4 years she get's creamed with ads. I am in the Boston market so it's a little more bearable.

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