Romney surging in national tracking polls

[woolldog]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/july-25-romney-gains-in-tracking-polls/

Mitt Romney has seen some improvement in these tracking polls over the last week. The Rasmussen Reports tracking poll had him four points ahead of Barack Obama as of Thursday. Galllup’s tracking poll showed him moving back into a one-point lead after Mr. Obama had held the advantage for most of the past few weeks.

Both the Rasmussen Reports and Gallup polls have been slightly Republican-leaning relative to the consensus of surveys. But that is not true of two polling firms that release weekly tracking polls, Public Policy Polling and YouGov, and both of those polls showed Mr. Romney gaining as well.

[WI_DEM]

1. Ras usually always has Mitt up and Gallup has had both leading

back and forth. No real change. It's been the norm. Funny how the media just sweeps the NBC Poll that had Obama up by six points under the rug and uses the daily trackers to back up the narrative they want.

[Robbins]

6. The MSM

They are being very selective on what polls they mention.MSNBC has told It's hosts to cast doudt on PPP state polls by saying they
lean democratic.

[RedStateLiberal]

2. Look at the average of polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Both are trending up due to the latest polls.

Polls are interesting to look at but I don't put too much faith in them, especially this early.

Even if Obama was way ahead in the polls at this point I wouldn't get too excited about it. We've got a long way to go.

[Walk away]

3. Look, about 48% the country is certifiably insane.

This is how the poles are going to always look. Unless some Libertarian like Paul runs and skims off 10% or 20% of the pukes, this is a national election norm. It's the battle ground states that count.

[progressivebydesign]

4. Yeah, right. n/t

[sharp_stick]

5. Surging?

I've started to question the use of that word every time I see it. Surging implies a powerful force over a short period of time and it's so overused by the media in general as to have become meaningless.

The fact remains that tracking polls in general, as mentioned in the article which did not use the term surging, are still within the range of potential noise

[DURHAM D]

7. The OP made up his own headline

which is against the rules on DU

The title of the article is "gains"

[Sheepshank]

15. Of course he made up his own "Surge" headline

The article is in deep contast with the OP in this quote "seen some improvement"....hardly what I would call a surge

It's the norm with the OP

[DURHAM D]

16. Are you suggesting a motive?

[Sheepshank]

17. it's not too hard to look at the 'usual'

topics and leanings of articles picked by the OP.

[DURHAM D]

20. I just did a little research.

I see that Romney surging is a theme with him - see post #1.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125157931

And gratuitous Rachel bashing OP - (not a single Rec)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002978291

[Sheepshank]

21. I'm thinking *surge* doesn't really mean what he thinks it means. n/t

[elleng]

26. Yes, he did,

when article header is:

July 25: Romney Gains in Tracking Polls

and follows with

I am in the midst of explaining how the FiveThirtyEight forecast model evaluates state polls along with national polls in an effort to determine where the overall race stands. I suppose I think that the national polls sometimes receive a bit too much attention.

But we, at FiveThirtyEight, are not dogmatic about this. The model does use national polls as well — including the various tracking polls that are released on a daily or weekly basis, and sometimes they can have a discernible influence on the forecast.

Mitt Romney has seen some improvement in these tracking polls over the last week. The Rasmussen Reports tracking poll had him four points ahead of Barack Obama as of Thursday. Galllup’s tracking poll showed him moving back into a one-point lead after Mr. Obama had held the advantage for most of the past few weeks.

Both the Rasmussen Reports and Gallup polls have been slightly Republican-leaning relative to the consensus of surveys. But that is not true of two polling firms that release weekly tracking polls, Public Policy Polling and YouGov, and both of those polls showed Mr. Romney gaining as well.

These tracking polls are subject to the same random noise that any other surveys are — and sometimes the movement they appear to show can be spurious. But the one nice thing about them is that they do provide a steady basis for comparison. Our hope, of course, is that the forecast model can weigh their pluses in minuses in a sensible way.

Add it up, and Mr. Romney has gained some ground in the FiveThirtyEight forecast over the past few days. His chances of winning the Electoral College were listed at 35.0 percent by the model as of Wednesday night’s forecast, his best figure since the June 26 release of our numbers.

.-----------------

I'll lead a post with the last sentence.

[Wounded Bear]

8. It's kind of like Bush's "mandate"......

after being "re-elected" by one of the smallest margins in history.



Gallup used to be fairly reputable, but any more it's a lot like Rassie...pretty right-leaning.

[scheming daemons]

9. thanks for your concern

[Cali_Democrat]

10. Rasmussen is the only recent poll in the last 10 days that has him up

Gallup tracking has them tied. The others have Obama ahead.

[woolldog]

33. So what?

I said romney is surging (i.e closing ground fast), not that he's ahead in all tracking polls. There's been significant movement in his favor.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

11. So what did the voters like about Romney this week?

He was supposed to have a bad week.

[aaaaaa5a]

12. the tracking polls are a roller coaster ride.

They go up and down for no reason. I ignore them when Obama is up and when he is down. The lack of any kind of stability with the polls lend them little credibility.

Want further proof. Today Obama is tied in the gallup tracking poll with Romney. The tracking polls swing like the tide with little reasoning behind any shift in one direction or the other.


Finally, this is election amounts to a 6-7 state race. As a result most of Americans are completely closed out to the campaign. Because the red/blue divide is more prominent than ever, IMHO, the National polls and National vote totals have never been more irrelevant in my lifetime. Romney can rack up big totals in deep red states that can turn the national numbers. Obama can do the same likewise. But neither really gets you the Presidency.

Trust me, if you are the Obama campaign, the PPP number out of Michigan and Pennsylvania is far more important than what their tracking number was.

If you are trying to determine who is going to be the President of the United States, the polling from about 7 states is all that matters.

There are several really good websites that let you track the race based on the electoral college. And if you do so, you will see that Romney's path to 270 is very difficult. It will require a perfect storm for him to win. In fact I think its even legitimately possible to the President to get to 270 with only 48 or 49% of the vote. These are the numbers that decide elections. Not useless national tracking polls.


I've even go so far as to tell people that Obama would rather lose the popular vote 50%-49% if it at the same time he was carrying Ohio 51%-48%. I think Obama would take that in a second. and the Romney team would throw it back, despite winning the national number.

[Kolesar]

23. The President has an adequate lead to nullify millions of gop voters in CA, IL, and Pennsylvania

The opinions of the gop voters are only relevant as a gross number to see whether Romney or President Obama is trending up or down.

Romney has to fight to hold states like Florida, Virginia and Colorado that should be easy pickings for any Republican. Good for the President

I fear that the voter suppression is going to screw the Democratic congressional candidates and cost us the House.

[TexasTowelie]

28. I am not that certain about Pennsylvania.

Whether the voter id law is in effect will be significant as to which way the vote will turn.

I also disagree with you regarding Florida, Virginia and Colorado since they were never in the Romney camp to hold. Romney will have to turn those states away from Obama to have any likelihood of victory.

[marlakay]

13. I take yougov polls

They are all online and ask if you are weak or strong dem or repub...so before they even start a new poll they know if they are asking weak or strong dems about Romney...

Let's just say me as a strong dem haven't had a poll about politics lately...just shopping....

So it would be easy for them to poll only weak dems then say see he is ahead!

[truebrit71]

14. Sorry i stopped reading after I saw the word "rasmussen"...

I wouldn't trust them to poll my dog on whether she preferred a treat or another nap..

[alcibiades_mystery]

34. I stopped reading after I saw "wooldog"

Obama Hater #1 openly desires Obama loss and Romney win in this election. he/she has nothing of importance to say at that point.

[FSogol]

38. And this thread gets a rec?

[woolldog]

39. yessssssssss

woot woot

[grantcart]

19. suggestion if you are going to post these right wing polls then also post Nate Silver's response

Silver has moved Romney up as well, to 35% chance of win.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/



Mitt Romney has seen some improvement in these tracking polls over the last week. The Rasmussen Reports tracking poll had him four points ahead of Barack Obama as of Thursday. Galllup’s tracking poll showed him moving back into a one-point lead after Mr. Obama had held the advantage for most of the past few weeks.

Both the Rasmussen Reports and Gallup polls have been slightly Republican-leaning relative to the consensus of surveys. But that is not true of two polling firms that release weekly tracking polls, Public Policy Polling and YouGov, and both of those polls showed Mr. Romney gaining as well.

These tracking polls are subject to the same random noise that any other surveys are — and sometimes the movement they appear to show can be spurious. But the one nice thing about them is that they do provide a steady basis for comparison. Our hope, of course, is that the forecast model can weigh their pluses in minuses in a sensible way.

Add it up, and Mr. Romney has gained some ground in the FiveThirtyEight forecast over the past few days. His chances of winning the Electoral College were listed at 35.0 percent by the model as of Wednesday night’s forecast, his best figure since the June 26 release of our numbers.

[DCBob]

22. "surging"??? That appears to be your term cuz I dont see that word anywhere in the artlcle.

Romney's "uptick" is a frickin blip on graph and means next to nothing in the grand scheme of things.

[Yavin4]

24. The Only Polls That Truly Matter Are The Battleground State Polls

Those states are the only ones that are getting ads from the campaigns as well as visits from the candidates.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. 1. Rasmussen is trash. 2. Romney's one-point bounce in Gallup lasted 24 hours. They're tied now. 3.

Obama leads in almost every other poll.

[elleng]

27. 'His chances of winning the Electoral College were listed at 35.0 percent

by the model as of Wednesday night’s forecast.'

[benld74]

29. Huh, so you can hack tracking polls too??

[OmahaBlueDog]

30. I know the RNC and Romney are buying more advertising

I also know any spike in the price of gas does not help President Obama

[TeamPooka]

31. national polls are worthless - swing state poll are all that matter....

because the national vote is irrelevant to the Electoral College.

[crimson77]

35. Obama's swing state poll number aren't exactly lighting the world on fire.

I spent about an hour fiddling with the EC number's. Using a baseline of 181, Romney needs to win Fl,NC,VA,Mizz, OH. Not only that but I can see him winning NH,IA,WI and PA. I heard today that in Penn. there are going to be up to 1 million ineligible voters because of the new I.D law.

I just think everyone is being overly optimistic here, if you can tell me one piece of good news that you think is going to happen between now and election day?

Before you say I am a concern troll I will admit I'm not a huge Obama fan, I am more of a Clinton person. Best President ever.

[DCBob]

36. so you can see romney winning "Fl,NC,VA,Mizz,OH,NH,IA,WI and PA"

thats more than just a "concern toll".. thats delusional.

[crimson77]

37. Tell me one that makes me delusional?

FL- Rubio is VP nom?
NC-Perdue is a disaster, Obama magic gone.
VA-Republican Gov, Northern Va doesnt come out like they should.
MO-MCcaskill is done, Is the President even fighting there?
OH-Best chance to hold.
NH- As a Mass guy I can tell you New Hampshire isn't going to look good, lot of Mass people fleeing into lower taxed NH.
IA- It looks like Romeny has a fighting chance, don't know much about the state.
WI- If the base didn't come out for the recall why would they come out now?
PA- See above post.

Right now I had to guess I would say it is a pick em for President, I think the Republican's take the Senate and loss some house seats but maintain control of the House. Which sucks because less than nothing will get done in the next 4 years.

[woolldog]

40. He doesn't need to win all those states

Romney's most reasonable path is all the McCain states + OH, VA, NC, and Iowa.

[crimson77]

42. Plus Florida?

[woolldog]

43. yea, forgot about Florida. tks. *

[DCBob]

45. For Romney to win he would have a win a bunch of those states..

For example.... OH, VA, NC, IA, and FL. (all of them plus the McCain states).

aint gonna happen.

[Bluenorthwest]

32. Surging? Puh-lease! That's not even 'trending' much less surging...

The text says 'some improvement'. Isn't that something teachers write on spotty report cards?

[center rising]

41. You give Rasmussen to much credit

And Gallup has been all over the place. What matters is the electoral college, and every one of them have Obama ahead.

[bigdarryl]

44. Allan LICHTMAN quote: Don't look at ANY of these polls before the Conventions they mean nothing

End of story