Thu Jul 12, 2012, 02:44 PM
brooklynite (35,806 posts)
An observation about Obama and Romney
Thinking back over the past few months, Obama has had good weeks and he's had bad weeks (which can be interpreted as good for Mitt). But Romney, as far back as I can see, has only had bad or neutral weeks. I cn't think of anything he's said or done which has resulted in positive a positive reflection on his own campaign.
10 replies, 1619 views
An observation about Obama and Romney (Original post)
|Rosanna Lopez||Jul 2012||#10|
|Proud Liberal Dem||Jul 2012||#5|
Response to Politicalboi (Reply #1)
Fri Jul 13, 2012, 07:07 PM
Rosanna Lopez (308 posts)
10. But it probably IS close
The country is still split very much down the middle, regardless of whether the nominee may be bad. When there's a 2-party system, the opposing party is always guaranteed to win a large chunk of the vote. So except in rare cases, the Republicans are always going to get at least 45% of the vote.
Even in a terrible year in 2008, McCain still managed to get 46%
Nate Silver, who is a smart and objective analyst, only predicts Obama to get about 50-51% of the vote in November and predicts Romney will get about 48%.
Obama can still win by a large margin in the Electoral College, but winning the popular vote by a large margin is much more challenging.
Response to democrat_patriot (Reply #2)
Fri Jul 13, 2012, 12:53 PM
TheDonkey (8,911 posts)
8. McCain stayed close to Obama until Palin and Financial Meltdown were on the scene.
During the summer McCain was up mostly while Obama and Clinton still battled it out.
We have yet to have a real "game change" moment for Obama like when it became apparent that Palin was a clear disaster (what reading materials do you read?) and the financial meltdown took a turn for the worse (I'm postponing my campaign!).
We have many more weeks to go but the truth is that Obama has had more good weeks than not. But the media is still pounding Obama hard because the do-nothing Congress refuses to help the job situation. Unemployement still is a serious issue, more serious than Rove's super PACs.
Response to brooklynite (Original post)
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 04:07 PM
Proud Liberal Dem (14,775 posts)
5. His "coronation" gave him a bit of a bump (at first)
Other than that, I can't think of anything exceedingly "positive" that has happened for his campaign (so far). He'll get a lot of press coverage when he picks a VP and, depending on who that ends up being, may (or may not) give his campaign a bit of a boost, as will the RNC. I'm not quite sure exactly what will give Romney a little momentum. His strategy seems to mainly to chip away at President Obama's support among his key demographics- enough to slide into the WH. I doubt that it will be enough to do the trick. If any African-Americans might have been enticed to vote for Romney, his *performance* at the NAACP was hopefully enough to ruin those hopes, President Obama's mini-Dream immigration policy change seems to have undone his hopes at bringing down Hispanic support for President Obama. His campaign seems to be going after women now but IMHO he's going to have to give them more of a reason not to support President Obama other than the economy sucks (and most people remember who's to blame for that and it's not President Obama).