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Fri Jul 6, 2012, 11:37 AM

Intrade has droped POTUS getting re-elected to 55.0%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/ it was 56.4% yesterday. must be the jobs numbers.

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Reply Intrade has droped POTUS getting re-elected to 55.0% (Original post)
a kennedy Jul 2012 OP
Turbineguy Jul 2012 #1
budkin Jul 2012 #2
Rosanna Lopez Jul 2012 #10
DavidDvorkin Jul 2012 #3
WI_DEM Jul 2012 #4
Douglas Carpenter Jul 2012 #5
backscatter712 Jul 2012 #6
DavidDvorkin Jul 2012 #9
bigdarryl Jul 2012 #7
RBInMaine Jul 2012 #8
DavidDvorkin Jul 2012 #11

Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 11:42 AM

1. Voter suppression seems to be working.

With a large number of voters disenfranchised in PA, Romney leads there. Repubs are clever about stealing elections.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 12:23 PM

2. Also because of PA Voter ID

There's a decent chance Mitt wins it now.

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Response to budkin (Reply #2)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 02:55 PM

10. Perhaps it's time . . .

Perhaps it's time that the Democrats and the public fought back against Voter Fraud for a change?!

And even more to the point, perhaps it's time that the law be changed so that Secretaries of State (partisan political individuals) do not run elections, voting machines and the ballots? It should be run by an independent, non-partisan elections commission as it is in Canada, Britain and other Western countries.

Allowing Secretaries of State to be in the position to steal elections for their parties makes America's electoral system not much better than that in 3rd-world countries. Just last month the Arizona Secretary of State was trying to keep Obama off the ballot there.

And then there's the stories surrounding Katharine Harris in 2000 in Florida, and Ken Blackwell in 2004 in Ohio . . .

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 12:30 PM

3. He's up to 55.8% now

There had been a general upward movement in Obama's number on Intrade recently. Maybe that drop was a temporary reaction to the job news.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 12:32 PM

4. what a useless barometer this early on.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 12:36 PM

5. it was down to 52.5% just two weeks ago so with it now at 55.8% that is still an over all increase

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 12:51 PM

6. That's alright. Intrade got the SCOTUS decision on the ACA wrong. n/t

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Response to backscatter712 (Reply #6)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 02:54 PM

9. No, it didn't

The odds started dropping on Intrade the night before the decision was announced. By the time of the announcement, it was at 50% -- pretty accurate, considering that Roberts had changed his vote, but in any case not wrong.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 01:39 PM

7. Its way to early to be making intrade predictions about November election

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 01:41 PM

8. Posting this is a silly waste of time. This and most polls don't mean SHIT right now.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Jul 6, 2012, 05:02 PM

11. Now it's jumped to Obama - 56.9%, Romney - 41.0%

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