HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Politics 2014 (Forum) » Princeton Election Consor...
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU

Wed Jul 4, 2012, 07:28 PM

Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 332 EV, Romney 206 - Obama wins 51% popular vote.

http://election.princeton.edu/

President: Obama vote share 51.5 +/- 0.2 %, Obama 332 EV to Romney 206 EV. Current evaluation: Obamaís going to win. As of today itís 7 sigma (huge). For November I still give him 7-1 odds, favorable.


16 replies, 2438 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 332 EV, Romney 206 - Obama wins 51% popular vote. (Original post)
Drunken Irishman Jul 2012 OP
HopeHoops Jul 2012 #1
a kennedy Jul 2012 #2
Drunken Irishman Jul 2012 #3
a kennedy Jul 2012 #13
Rosanna Lopez Jul 2012 #4
Drunken Irishman Jul 2012 #6
Hawaii Hiker Jul 2012 #8
fujiyama Jul 2012 #10
Hawaii Hiker Jul 2012 #12
bluestateguy Jul 2012 #5
Drunken Irishman Jul 2012 #7
DavidDvorkin Jul 2012 #9
Cali_Democrat Jul 2012 #11
Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 #14
Rosa Luxemburg Nov 2012 #15
fujiyama Nov 2012 #16

Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Jul 4, 2012, 07:33 PM

1. Give it a few hours.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Jul 4, 2012, 07:34 PM

2. Is there anyway we can see how the POTUS was doing four years ago against McCain??

Just kinda curious. Thanks.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to a kennedy (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 4, 2012, 07:43 PM

3. Here...

http://election.princeton.edu/page/6/

You can go back and look through their '08 predictions.

Their final prediction had Obama winning 352 electoral votes to McCain's 186 - in the end, Obama exceeded their expectations.

To give you a better indication this far out, on July 30th, 2008, this was their prediction:

Our graphics arenít quite up yet, so here are todayís unadorned results. Based on 137 polls (up to 3 per state), the current median outcome is Obama 306 EV, McCain 232 EV (95% confidence intervals Obama , McCain . The Popular Meta-Margin is Obama +3.1%. For an explanation of what these quantities mean, see the old site.


So, Obama is doing better today than he was at the end of July four years ago.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #3)

Thu Jul 5, 2012, 08:19 AM

13. This is great news.....

thank you.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Jul 4, 2012, 07:48 PM

4. 51%

51% is a pretty small share of the popular vote when you think about it.

Very depressing.

A win is a win, but to see almost half the country vote for a vile individual like Romney does not bode well for the future of humanity.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Rosanna Lopez (Reply #4)

Wed Jul 4, 2012, 10:56 PM

6. 51% would be significant...

As the only presidents in modern American history to receive a majority of the vote in both elections are Eisenhower & Reagan.

Nixon received 43% in '68 and 60.7% in '72. Carter received 50% in '76 and 41% in '80. Reagan received 50% in '80 and 58% in '84. Bush received 53% in '88 and 37% in '92. Clinton received 43% in '92 and 49% in '96. Bush received 48% in '00 and 50% in '04.

51% amounts to an electoral landslide. So, I'll take it.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Rosanna Lopez (Reply #4)

Wed Jul 4, 2012, 10:58 PM

8. It's actually very difficult to get 60% of vote in a presidential election

Even Reagan didn't get 60% in 1984, when he won everywhere but DC and Minnesota (think he got 58%)...LBJ did get 60% in his 1964 route...

In this day & age with the deep political divides, I'll gladly take Obama 51%, or more importantly, 270 EV's...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Hawaii Hiker (Reply #8)

Thu Jul 5, 2012, 01:00 AM

10. In terms of the %, Johnson still takes it in the modern era

"Johnson, who had successfully associated himself with Kennedy's popularity, won 61.1% of the popular vote, the highest won by a candidate since 1820."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1964

Romney is a much bigger lunatic than Goldwater (but so was Bush and arguably Reagan was as well), and has fewer principles. At least Goldwater was honest about his nuttiness. Romney is a snake and perhaps the biggest liar to have run for the office.

But then again '64 was a very unique election, coming less than a year after an assassinated president. I'm reading the Caro book now. It's fascinating...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to fujiyama (Reply #10)

Thu Jul 5, 2012, 07:36 AM

12. I agree about Romney being a snake and biggest liar to run for office

Even Goldwater had some moderate views, namely on social issues....

Romney would go far right on every issue, and truly would take us back to the 12th century...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Jul 4, 2012, 07:54 PM

5. What is 7 sigma?

What is that supposed to mean?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluestateguy (Reply #5)

Wed Jul 4, 2012, 10:56 PM

7. No idea! haha

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluestateguy (Reply #5)

Wed Jul 4, 2012, 11:07 PM

9. It means that the probability that Obama will win is 99.999999999744%

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluestateguy (Reply #5)

Thu Jul 5, 2012, 02:53 AM

11. 7 sigma

Meaning 7 standard deviations? Greater than 99% chance, assuming normal distribution?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 06:03 AM

14. From July. Wow.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:17 PM

15. Wow!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:48 PM

16. Wow! Very impressive!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread