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Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:50 AM

New Poll: Poll shows tie race in Michigan: Obama's base more excited

Who would have thought that the polls from Ohio would be better than Michigan?

ARBOR, MI - President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in Michigan, a new poll shows, with the Republican challenger faring better among independents and the Democratic incumbent sparking more excitement in his base.

Each candidate garnered 40 percent in the statewide survey of 600 likely voters conducted June 14-15 by public relations firm Lambert, Edwards & Associates and polling company Denno Research. Twenty percent were undecided.

Eighty-seven percent of Republicans said they would vote for Romney and 85 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Obama. But just 56 percent of Republicans were excited to vote for Romney while 75 percent of Democrats were excited to vote for Obama.

- Female voters were evenly divided, with 40 percent favoring Romney and 40 percent favoring Obama.

"If there's a War on Women going on in Michigan, someone forgot to tell female voters," said pollster Dennis Denno, president of Denno Research and chief of staff for a Democratic state senator.


http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/06/tie_race_new_poll_shows_romney.html

Never heard of this pollster.

19 replies, 2393 views

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Reply New Poll: Poll shows tie race in Michigan: Obama's base more excited (Original post)
WI_DEM Jun 2012 OP
bluestateguy Jun 2012 #1
WI_DEM Jun 2012 #2
aaaaaa5a Jun 2012 #3
former9thward Jun 2012 #10
aaaaaa5a Jun 2012 #12
former9thward Jun 2012 #15
aaaaaa5a Jun 2012 #16
scheming daemons Jun 2012 #4
aaaaaa5a Jun 2012 #6
DCBob Jun 2012 #17
yellowcanine Jun 2012 #5
WI_DEM Jun 2012 #7
yellowcanine Jun 2012 #8
WI_DEM Jun 2012 #9
railsback Jun 2012 #11
bigdarryl Jun 2012 #13
Proud Liberal Dem Jun 2012 #14
SleeplessinSoCal Jun 2012 #18
DCBob Jun 2012 #19

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:51 AM

1. Thanks, but I'm going to stick with the Rasmussen poll showing Obama +8 in Michigan

So I reject this.

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:57 AM

2. for once I hope Ras is right

since every other poll out of the state recently has showed a tie contest.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:58 AM

3. I have never heard of this polling firm


Plus, polls where there is a relatively low tally for both sides (40%) are bad polls, because "leaners" are not calculated. Thus, you get a base 40/40 poll that you would get in 40 of 50 states if this methodology were used.

For the record, this style of polling is the same way Obama received surprisingly good polling numbers out of Arizona a few months ago. Both Romney and Obama scored around 40%. This too was a bad poll for the same reason.


Obama is ahead in Michigan.
Romney is ahead in Arizona.

This is true despite any ridiculous anonymous pollster that gives a a base election 40/40 result to the contrary.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #3)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 12:14 PM

10. The poll comapny is not "anonymous". It is a Democratic firm.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #10)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 01:47 PM

12. Just because they are a democratic firm doesn't mean (on its own merit)


that the numbers are accurate and trustworthy.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #12)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:36 PM

15. Totally agree.

They are a state polling company not a national one so I have no idea of their record. However I never dismiss a poll just because I don't like the numbers.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #15)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 03:08 PM

16. I agree 100%


That's why its best to use the RCP average. It is the best method I have found to level the numbers regarding bad polls.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:00 AM

4. 20% undecided? not credible

Tied among women? Also not credible.

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Response to scheming daemons (Reply #4)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:04 AM

6. You nailed it! nt

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Response to scheming daemons (Reply #4)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 03:22 PM

17. Agreed. That makes no sense.

Their methodology is suspect.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:02 AM

5. Doesn't square with the latest NBC/WSJ poll......"Romney getting hammered in the swing states"

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #5)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:12 AM

7. but...and I'm not saying this poll is correct...

there are 12 swing states listed. So some are going to be closer than others. Also, this is not the first poll in recent weeks to show a close race in Michigan. I'd really like to see PPP do a new poll of Michigan.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #7)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:21 AM

8. Unlikely they would be tied in Michigan though with an 8 point lead for Obama in the 12 swing

states. Many of those swing states have similar demographics to Michigan - if the lead were only 3-4 points in the 12 swing states, I would say there is a chance this poll in not an outlier but with an 8 point lead I think it is. Also I don't believe any other recent polls showed them tied in Michigan.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #8)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:23 AM

9. No, but what I meant is that there is no guarantee that Obama is leading

by 8 in Michigan. I feel in the end Michigan will be won, but most individual polls our of Michigan do show a close race. So far the Obama campaign isn't putting a big media buy into the state (as far as I know), so they must feel fairly confident, too. If we suddenly see Obama campaigning or putting $$ into Michigan then we will know it is probably closer than it should be.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 12:37 PM

11. Preposterous

 

that Romney would be tied with Obama in Michigan. Romney is the guy who told this state to go 'f*ck yourself'. People aren't that stupid in the northern regions.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 01:49 PM

13. Lictman :Any polling before the Conventions are mean less

Case closed

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:08 PM

14. Is he considered a "favorite son" in Michigan because of his late father?



Or is Michigan going "red"? I know that things seem to be going downhill, politically (and in terms of democracy) in that state since the 2010 midterms.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 04:50 PM

18. What of Tim Kaine in Virginia? He's dropped precipitously . . .

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Response to SleeplessinSoCal (Reply #18)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:23 PM

19. This thread is about Michigan not Virginia.

Maybe you missed that.

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