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Wed Jun 27, 2012, 09:50 AM

NBC/WSJ Poll: Romney getting hammered in the Swing States

While the national numbers from the latest NBC/WSJ poll show a stable presidential race, First Read notes Mitt Romney had a "rough month" in the swing states.

"Among the voters in our poll living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, Obama's lead over Romney increases to 50%-42%. Also in these swing states, Romney's favorability numbers have dropped: A month ago, Romney's fav/unfav score stood at 34%/38% nationally and 36%-36% in these 12 swing states. But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33%-39% (that 39% unfav is tied with his all-time high) and 30%-41% in the swing states."

"What's more, the poll shows that attitudes about Romney's business background also are more unfavorable in these battlegrounds. Among swing-state respondents, 18% say what they've seen and heard about Romney's business record gives them a more POSITIVE opinion about the Republican candidate, versus 33% who say it's more NEGATIVE. That's compared to the national 23%-to-28% margin on this question. The obvious conclusion here is that the negative TV ads pummeling Romney in the battleground states -- like here and here and here -- are having an impact."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/06/27/romney_getting_hammered_in_the_swing_states.html

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Reply NBC/WSJ Poll: Romney getting hammered in the Swing States (Original post)
WI_DEM Jun 2012 OP
southernyankeebelle Jun 2012 #1
WI_DEM Jun 2012 #3
unc70 Jun 2012 #9
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #10
southernyankeebelle Jun 2012 #14
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #16
southernyankeebelle Jun 2012 #19
WCGreen Jun 2012 #26
CoffeeCat Jun 2012 #33
southernyankeebelle Jun 2012 #34
WCGreen Jun 2012 #37
sinkingfeeling Jun 2012 #2
RDANGELO Jun 2012 #4
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #11
sinkingfeeling Jun 2012 #13
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #17
LiberalFighter Jun 2012 #18
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #20
freshwest Jun 2012 #23
siligut Jun 2012 #42
Blasphemer Jun 2012 #43
freshwest Jun 2012 #44
Drunken Irishman Jun 2012 #12
DallasNE Jun 2012 #22
Rosanna Lopez Jun 2012 #24
Drunken Irishman Jun 2012 #25
Rosanna Lopez Jun 2012 #27
Drunken Irishman Jun 2012 #28
pstokely Jun 2012 #29
Drunken Irishman Jun 2012 #30
pstokely Jun 2012 #32
DallasNE Jun 2012 #21
SlimJimmy Jun 2012 #39
Baitball Blogger Jun 2012 #5
woolldog Jun 2012 #6
Kahuna Jun 2012 #7
polichick Jun 2012 #8
DCBob Jun 2012 #15
BootinUp Jun 2012 #31
Botany Jun 2012 #35
groundloop Jun 2012 #36
Gumboot Jun 2012 #38
Rosanna Lopez Jun 2012 #45
Douglas Carpenter Jun 2012 #40
BBGC Jun 2012 #41

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:05 AM

1. I am worried. We haven't heard to much from Mitten's and his friends. Remember

 

when Newt was getting positive press right before SC (a state Newtie won) the Mittens team just hammered him with negative ads. I am afraid that they are holding back on Obama and waiting til right before the Nov. then hit him like they hit Newtie. Obama doesn't have that kind of money. Negative works. They are holding back and waiting.

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Response to southernyankeebelle (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:19 AM

3. I'm sure they are waiting, but...

unlike Newt who didn't respond after SC--Obama will respond.

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Response to southernyankeebelle (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:11 PM

9. Not waiting here in NC

Both sides are running lots of ads here in NC. Nothing quiet about it at all. I have been polled multiple times, including two RW push polls, and this is still just June.

If I, a very obvious liberal, am getting RW push polls, think was conservatives are getting. And somehow I am now on the Teaparty email list. Really interesting seeing what wild things they are pushing each and every day.

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Response to southernyankeebelle (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:16 PM

10. Obama will be hit with a one-two punch tomorrow. First, the "contempt" vote in the House.

Then, the Supreme Court ruling. Then we'll see a barage of negative ads.

Mitt Romney had better be careful though. If the SCOTUS strikes down the individual mandate as unconstitutional, shouldn't that invalidate MA's law?

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #10)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 03:15 PM

14. The more I thought about it the more mad I got. I called both Senator and Congressman in

 

my districts. I asked both since republicans and their friends at Fox are dancing in the streets hoping that the supreme court repeals the health care what are you going to do to help this people. Neither office had a response. They both said they will wait for the release. I said well you should have an idea since to have that back door to the supreme court and you have known for a long time. I would think you should have some ideas. None for either one of them. I asked what were they going to do about this Corporations are people. I told them they should all being wearing logos since they work for corporations and not the american people. I also asked what have they done since the mid elections except take womens rights away.

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Response to southernyankeebelle (Reply #14)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 05:03 PM

16. How did they respond to your last question?

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #16)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:04 PM

19. None. Just what I figured. I had the senator's aide tongue tied. He didn't know what to

 

say. I told him to make sure he told the senator everything I said.

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Response to southernyankeebelle (Reply #1)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 02:07 AM

26. I live in Cleveland, the largest media market in the state.....

Romney has been hammering president Obama relentlessly since the middle of May.

They just don't like Romney.

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Response to WCGreen (Reply #26)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 06:32 AM

33. Same in Iowa

We've been bombarded with negative Obama ads for many weeks now. The ad I see repeatedly is the one where Obama repeatedly says, "The private sector is doing fine."

Seriously? If this is what Romney has, then I feel sorry for him. Romney has a tough battle in Iowa. Sanatorium won the Iowa Republican caucus by a very slim margin. The Republican base here in Iowa is not too thrilled with Romney. Obama is very well liked here.

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Response to WCGreen (Reply #26)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 08:21 AM

34. hope your right. but they may hold their nose and still vote for mittens.

 

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Response to southernyankeebelle (Reply #34)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 10:40 AM

37. The more they see of Romney the less they like...

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:17 AM

2. Yet the MSNBC website has this: NBC/WSJ poll: Obama, Romney remain in dead heat

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Response to sinkingfeeling (Reply #2)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:47 AM

4. If this polling is accurate, then that is disingenuous.

The President is looking at a comfortable win in the electoral college. Romney must be winning by some huge margins in red states.

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Response to RDANGELO (Reply #4)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:19 PM

11. Yep! That's the issue. Whereas Obama may be winning in a lot of BLUE states, it's not

by that much, compared to the lopsided beating Mittens is giving him in the RED states. So that is the problem, hence the purging of the voters in RED states. If the Republicans can keep a lot of Democrats from voting in traditionally RED states, that helps Mittens with his national polling percentage.

That's what's going on here. The national polls don't matter as much as the state polls do.

And even then, it's still only June. If the polls look like this after the two conventions, then I'll start to worry. But polls mean very little right now.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #11)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:50 PM

13. Why? If Obama wins the blue states, he wins because it's the electorial votes

that count. Popular vote could well go to Rmoney, but Obama would still win.

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Response to sinkingfeeling (Reply #13)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 05:05 PM

17. Yes, I know. I was just surmising what I think it's happening with respect to the national polls

vs. the state by state polls and why there is this discrepancy.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #17)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 05:46 PM

18. National polls are screwy in relation to presidential elections.

Too much weight is applied to smaller states when dumped into the mix.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #18)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:43 PM

20. Hence, why we shouldn't lose sleep over it.

People always seem to lose it over these national polls when it's really the state polls in SWING states that really matter.

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Response to sinkingfeeling (Reply #13)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 01:29 AM

23. Don't we have to win some red states? They've got a lot of votes.

Gore got over half a million more votes than Bush population-wise and lost because of the way states send in their electors. All or nothing, I think. So we should get some red states and I don't know if we will. Some of the now red states that voted for Obama now have GOP governor instead of Democrats and they've changed things up. PA looks to be more problematic because they have disenfranchised over half a million voters and they are doing the same elsewhere.
I don't think we really have a reliable electoral count, someone tell me.

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Response to freshwest (Reply #23)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 01:12 PM

42. Will someone who knows answer freshwest's post/questions?

It seems we often agree freshwest, my concerns are similar.

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Response to freshwest (Reply #23)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 07:40 PM

43. I always look at this map to get an idea of what is going on:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

It seems to me that Romney has to win Florida and Ohio while Obama has a clear avenue to victory even without those big states.

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Response to Blasphemer (Reply #43)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 07:59 PM

44. Thanks! Too bad about TX. CA is undergoing changes too, but not disenfranchising.

I hate to think what the October surprise will be this year. It seems like the GOP always have one. They wanted the ACA struck down, and failed. I think they expected a one-two punch to shoot at Obama today.

Holder's being held in contempt isn't that big a deal unless he can be arrested. They want to smear Obama. I think the American people may see through this, but have the luxury of living in a 'leans Obama' area.

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Response to sinkingfeeling (Reply #2)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:24 PM

12. Two words: The South...

My guess is that Obama holds sizable leads over Romney in the NE & West, a respectable lead in the Midwest and is absolutely getting crushed in the South - driving up Romney's overall support.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #12)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:56 PM

22. That's Not A Bad Guess

Though it is hard to understand how that is possible in Texas with their large Hispanic population. Indeed, could they be under polling the Hispanic vote? Without lifting the sheets on who they polled and whether those numbers fit the overall demographics for the State.

Even places like Realclearpolitics have some issues because they overweight Republican leaning polls like Rassmussen.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #12)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 01:39 AM

24. South is not THAT pro-Romney

But Romney's support doesn't seem any better in the South compared to other Republican nominees, and in fact, it appears to be worse in certain places. So I'm not sure if Obama is doing that badly in the South.

And it depends what parts of the South we are talking about. Florida is a Southern state and Obama is doing well there, as he is in Virginia. He's also still got a shot at North Carolina. And then there are places like Texas where Romney only has about a 10-point lead.

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Response to Rosanna Lopez (Reply #24)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 01:50 AM

25. Of course it depends on certain states...

But that is what will drive his numbers down all the time.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #25)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 02:12 AM

27. Utah

Well, there was a poll this week that gave Romney a 42-point lead in Utah, so perhaps that's helping him. (one could argue that lead should be larger though!)

I think there was also a poll in Oklahoma last month showing Obama behind by about 35 points, so those seem to be two of the worst states.

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Response to Rosanna Lopez (Reply #27)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 02:19 AM

28. Certainly those states drive down the numbers...

McCain won Utah by 28 points, so, Romney is doing better there. Obama's numbers are on the level of Kerry's, who lost Utah by 45 points in '04.

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Response to Rosanna Lopez (Reply #24)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 02:30 AM

29. Florida is full of yankee transplants

It's only "Southern" North of Orlando, Romney is under performing in a lot of solid red states

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Response to pstokely (Reply #29)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 02:42 AM

30. Of course he is, which is why Obama leads overall...

But he's still getting trounced in a great deal of these states. Sure, compared to Gore & Kerry, he's doing better, most likely, in these red states and Romney is under performing compared to Bush. But that doesn't mean these states, and the interior west (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho) aren't driving down Obama's numbers overall, though. Obama better be outperforming Kerry in almost every state because Kerry didn't win the popular vote - and in this poll, he is, as Kerry lost the popular vote by 2.4%. That is a swing of 5.4% if these numbers are to be believed. Just marginally improving across the board from '04's results, though, would equal a victory.

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Response to Rosanna Lopez (Reply #24)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 04:08 AM

32. South is more Anti-Obama than Pro-Romney

nt

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Response to sinkingfeeling (Reply #2)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:48 PM

21. This Poll Frequently Has Issues With Demographics

In other words, they often over poll Republicans so you have to lift the sheets and take a peek before accepting the results. Note, I haven't done that so I am just saying be skeptical not that they are wrong this time. And that is a constant problem with polls -- who are they talking to.

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Response to sinkingfeeling (Reply #2)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 12:03 PM

39. They are using registered voters for their poll. Polls using likely voters show a much

closer race.

The margin of error for 1,000 interviews among adults is 3.1%
The margin of error for 819 interviews among registered voters is 3.4%

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:49 AM

5. Maybe the swing states are sick of Republican chicanery?

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Response to Baitball Blogger (Reply #5)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:13 AM

6. Chicanery....

I wish people used that word more often.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:45 AM

7. Guess that swing state, "Obama is out of Touch," tour was a roaring success...

for Obama!

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Response to Kahuna (Reply #7)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 12:17 PM

8. Every time I see that Romney ad about "out of touch Obama"...

I say, "Give me a freakin' break" - and I'll bet millions of viewers say the same thing.

The ad just reminds voters that Romney is out of touch.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 03:20 PM

15. This is looking good.

I didnt particularly like that ad but it seems to be working. I guess they know what they are doing.

well done!

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 03:21 AM

31. "pummeling Romney"

keep doin it, yeah.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 09:09 AM

35. "Romney's favorability numbers have dropped."

aka The more people get to know Romney the less they like him.



Notice the throngs of people and that nobody is smiling too.

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Response to Botany (Reply #35)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 09:48 AM

36. OK, time for a good RMoney Photoshop on the bus


Any volunteers?


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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 11:13 AM

38. After his comments about getting rid of firefighters last week....

Romney can kiss goodbye to his chances in the western states.

I'm in Colorado Springs, and I've noticed a lot of Romney signs and bumper stickers have vanished over these last few days.

President Obama is visiting here tomorrow - I doubt Mittens will be showing his sorry face any time soon.

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Response to Gumboot (Reply #38)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 08:03 PM

45. Bad signs for Romney in Colorado

1. In what was a bad year for the Democrats in 2010, they managed to win the Governorship, and the Senate seat.

2. Obama won in Colorado in 2008 by 9 points.

3. Obama is ahead of Romney in the Colorado polls. In fact, I don't see one Colorado poll this year showing a Romney lead. The best he does is a TIE.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

4. Romney lost Colorado to Rick Santorum by 5 points in the primary.

5. Obama has 70% of the Latino vote in Colorado according to last week's Latino Decisions poll:

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/06/22/new-poll-obama-leads-romney-among-latinos-in-key-2012-battleground-states/

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 12:28 PM

40. I have not doubt why - it is obvious BAIN - BAIN - BAIN they must keep this message going 24/7 -

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 12:32 PM

41. Every poll I have seen

Suggests that this will be a close election, but the president has been ahead of romney overall. It is looking very very good.

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