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Wed Jun 20, 2012, 10:39 PM

 

What odds do you give to an Obama 2012 victory and why? (read text first)

Odds was the best way to introduce my real question: do you think Obama will win and why.

You most probably wish he will win, but how do you see the result: easy win, tight race, and why.

Do you think there are key issues, and how do you think they will play?


My summary to date: a lead but no lock on a win

(+) current lead in the polls +2 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

(-) difficult to be incumbent in morose world economic outlook (lackluster forecasts for second semester 2012)

(? don't know ?) any red hot decisive issue when the debating chips are down?


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Reply What odds do you give to an Obama 2012 victory and why? (read text first) (Original post)
jeanV Jun 2012 OP
BlueToTheBone Jun 2012 #1
jeanV Jun 2012 #2
BlueToTheBone Jun 2012 #6
graham4anything Jun 2012 #3
NRaleighLiberal Jun 2012 #4
Tx4obama Jun 2012 #5
jeanV Jun 2012 #8
MrSlayer Jun 2012 #7
hrmjustin Jun 2012 #9

Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Jun 20, 2012, 10:40 PM

1. This looks like a push poll

go away.

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Response to BlueToTheBone (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 20, 2012, 10:43 PM

2. that answer is a textbook 'trial of intent'

 

you're putting thoughts into my mind. Ascribing to me imaginary intents.

Do you check under your bed for bogeymen before sleeping?

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Response to jeanV (Reply #2)

Wed Jun 20, 2012, 11:18 PM

6. So enlighten me. n/t

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Jun 20, 2012, 10:53 PM

3. Obama will win 100% sure of it

 

100% to win

with all the demographics except for white males, there are not enough votes out there in electoral land to say any other outcome is possible.(no matter what the media/polling sites say.
It is all bullcrap

And Obama wins the popular vote.54 to 46 is probably wishful thinking, and a few percent will probably go to others so it might be 52-45-3 or something

dems keep the senate (and may gain a few seats), and don't have enough facts to know if the house will move closer to the dems, or there will be a dem takeover

election 2016 will start shortly after
and 2013 Obama will be free to do things one only dreamed of wanting done

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Jun 20, 2012, 11:01 PM

4. Yes, he will win. It won't be as close as people think unless "things happen"

like the continued sweeping of voter rolls in advance, and the magical vanishing of Dem votes during and after the vote. Once Romney starts to show himself - once debates begin - I think Obama's lead will only grow with time.

I call myself a realistic optimist!

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Jun 20, 2012, 11:16 PM

5. Here ya go ...



Here's a link to a LIST of LINKS to 2012 Presidential Electoral Vote Forecasts - MAPS: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1100553

The first link on the list has odds listed on the right side of their page.

Enjoy


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Response to Tx4obama (Reply #5)

Wed Jun 20, 2012, 11:40 PM

8. yes, thx, I saw that but..

 

..they're just numbers without the backup rationale.

I'm looking for odds based on reasons.

Why would the odds be good/average?

Strengths/weaknesses? Risks/opportunities?

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Jun 20, 2012, 11:20 PM

7. He's got a 60% chance in my opinion.

 

Fairly good odds. I simply will not discount the impact of Citizen's United or underestimate the stupidity of the American voter. And then there is diebold.

Hmm....my percentage might be too high.

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Jun 20, 2012, 11:44 PM

9. He has a 52% chance of winning.

I think it will be close but i give Obama the edge.

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