YouGov/Economist: Clinton: 56% Sanders: 18%

[Adrahil]

This pretty much confirms the previous YouGov poll (showing Sanders at 24%) as an outlier.... unless you want to believe Sanders lost that much support, which I don't.

This new poll is pretty much in line with other recent polls.

A two-way race between Clinton and Sanders has a 65/24 split.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3k13yqulyj/econToplines.pdf

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. There is a lot of noise in these polls.

eom

[Adrahil]

2. Yep...

1) It's early

2) They each have their own sample model, which they use to weight responses.

They are mostly in the same ballpark though.

[Adrahil]

7. Yeah, I don;t hang too much on YouGov...

... they are a mediocre poller. But as you point out, this poll lies within the norm of the aggregated polls, so probably it isn't too far off.

I can't wait for Nate Silver to start running his model... it's the best in the biz. But I don't think he intends to start until we are a year out from the election. I'm sure he's running it offline, though.... I'd love to peek over his shoulder.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. According to yougov both Bush lll and Trump are upside down at 32/49 and 33/50

Here's the whole poll:


https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dvxmmch9lj/econTabReport2.pdf

[Adrahil]

10. That struck me too.

And don;t get me wrong... I think Bush III is awful, but I find it very amusing that Trump is hated at about the same level!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. lol

[JaneyVee]

17. YouGov was actually very accurate:

http://legacy.fordham.edu/campus_resources/enewsroom/topstories_2590.asp

Ranked #2 behind PPP polls

[HFRN]

3. looks like 'The Donald' leads at 28 percent

eb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Lindsey Graham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Bobby Jindal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
George Pataki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Rick Perry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Scott Walker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%

[HFRN]

4. Trump will call out Carly Fiorina for what a disaster she was at HP and Lucent

our usual worthless media keeps giving her a pass on that

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Trump is our greatest gift. Sadly I don't think it will be forever giving.

[Adrahil]

8. I really hope we get him through the fall!

I think he is devastating the GOPs reputation, and that will pay dividends!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I usually trust my political antenna.

I thought his remarks about McCain would have sunk him...


I guess some Republicans hate McCain that much or maybe they hate Mexicans that much or maybe they hate McCain and Mexicans equally.

[marlakay]

13. And yet again I do yougov polls and they didn't ask me!

I keep saying this because over the years and years I have been with them they ask are you dem or repub? liberal or conservative? Strong one? ask that all the time so when they do a poll like this they already know i am a strong liberal dem, so did they ask me about Bernie? No i would have said him!

So i want to know how they get a fair sampling when they already know so much about you. They know for instance I voted for Obama not Clinton in 08.

[ram2008]

14. Joe and Bernie's net fav is better than Hillary

If I were looking at this and I were Joe, I might just consider jumping in the race.

Hillary underwater at 45/47 (-2)

Joe slightly underwater as well 43/44 (-1)

Sanders treading at 33/30 (+3)

Difference from Hillary being I don't think Biden will drop in the polls under media scrutiny, but rather increase.

[K lib]

15. The newest poll only polled self identified democrats

The last economist/yougov polled independents and self identified democrats

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ar54q9h39k/econTabReport.pdf

look on pg 97

[Adrahil]

16. You're right....

I wonder why they changed the sampling?

Gonna dig into some if their polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Perhaps it's because they want to be like every pollster and only poll those who intend to vote...

Perhaps it's because they want to be like every other pollster and only poll those who intend to vote in their respective party's primary.

[Adrahil]

19. Possibly, though there are other polls

That poll D leaning Independents.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. That intend to vote in the Democratic primaries.

That poll D leaning Independents that intend to vote in the Democratic primaries.





That's a huge difference.

[Adrahil]

22. right. nt

[JaneyVee]

21. KNR!