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Fri Jun 8, 2012, 06:45 AM

Nate Silver: Obama has a 61.6% chance of winning reelection

The breakdown on the states is interesting he gives a higher chance of Romney winning Florida http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/election-forecast-obama-begins-with-tenuous-advantage/#more-31097

15 replies, 2432 views

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Reply Nate Silver: Obama has a 61.6% chance of winning reelection (Original post)
bigdarryl Jun 2012 OP
liberal N proud Jun 2012 #1
bigdarryl Jun 2012 #2
bigdarryl Jun 2012 #3
Cosmocat Jun 2012 #4
Cracklin Charlie Jun 2012 #8
Cosmocat Jun 2012 #13
rocktivity Jun 2012 #5
Robbins Jun 2012 #6
a kennedy Jun 2012 #7
Quixote1818 Jun 2012 #9
Cal33 Jun 2012 #11
Cosmocat Jun 2012 #14
Drunken Irishman Jun 2012 #10
1000 Words Jun 2012 #12
davidpdx Jun 2012 #15

Response to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 06:49 AM

1. I would give Romney a high chance to STEAL Florida

They know how to do it, its been done before and they have the team in place.

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Response to liberal N proud (Reply #1)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 06:52 AM

2. True but if Silver's predictions hold it won't help him with the electoral numbers

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Response to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 07:01 AM

3. I'm still not convince he's going to carry Florida

If bald headed Ricky keeps trying to purge people from the voter list there's a chance the voters will turn on the rethugs. Anytime you start tying to purge old white men who are veterans from the list you know your in dangerous territory

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #3)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 07:58 AM

4. eh

I think what we have seen as a repeated pattern over time is that the people of this country take it up the rear from republicans and find a way to rationalize begging for them to do it again in a new way.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #4)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 12:18 PM

8. Damn fine comment! n/t

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Response to Cracklin Charlie (Reply #8)

Sat Jun 9, 2012, 07:40 AM

13. I am reaching the point

where I think it is a bit of a lost cause.

NO reason for 2010 to happen.

NONE.

And, no reason for a president doing a DARN fine job to be in a position where some desperate, win at all costs twit is a viable challenger.

Bush was a disaster of epic proportions even in 2004, but because he kept the country safe (outside of a bad day on 9-11), we had to relect him.

This president has been a complete monster on national security and of course that does not mater in the least, because he is responsible for the debt the moron rang up.

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #3)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 10:35 AM

5. Rock The Vote and the League of Women Voters have resumed operations in FL

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Response to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 10:59 AM

6. Nate Silver

He has Romney winning florida,NC,and Indiana and Obama keeping the rest of his 2008 states.

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Response to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 11:13 AM

7. Intrade has him at 53.8% to be re-elected.....

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #7)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 01:51 PM

9. Interesting, only a 16% change we will go back into recession by years end.



I think as long as the economy is growing even slowly Obama is safe. We start to lose jobs and GDP goes negative he is toast.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Reply #9)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 03:37 PM

11. And such a high percentage of people don't even realize that the Repubs. are the ones who

are deliberately doing their best to keep the unemployment rate high -- just
to get Obama. The Repubs. ought to be thankful that there are so many
such people around. But then, Repubs are never thankful or grateful. They
simply feel entitled to these blessings!

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Response to Quixote1818 (Reply #9)

Sat Jun 9, 2012, 05:22 PM

14. Been saying that for LONG time now

even slow gains economically, brass tacks, there will be enough people in the middle who see no reason to bump President Obama, a guy they like personally, for Romney, a guy who is pretty much the epitome of a say anything, and I mean ANYTHING to get elected politician.

The other factor is security - we have to hold our breath that no domestic terrorist attacks occur between now and November, but the right would PILLAGE him for it.

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Response to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 03:22 PM

10. It's nice not to have to rely on Florida...

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Response to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Jun 8, 2012, 04:04 PM

12. 31

 

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Response to 1000 Words (Reply #12)

Sun Jun 10, 2012, 08:58 AM

15. Nice

Welcome to DU!

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