JS Online about exit polls - begin reporting at 4PM
Tonight’s exit polls will help answer some burning questions about Wisconsin’s historic recall election.
How much will this mix of voters differ from 2010, when Republican Scott Walker beat Democrat Tom Barrett by 5.8 percentage points?
Will this contest follow the same voting patterns and political fault lines?
How do Tuesday’s voters feel about collective bargaining, public employee unions, the use of recalls and the presidential race?
We’ll begin reporting after 4 pm Milwaukee time on the preliminary exit poll numbers, and what they tell us about the Wisconsin voters who turned out Tuesday: their demographic and political characteristics, their attitudes on key questions, and some of the most striking differences between Walker voters and Barrett voters.
Nothing will be reported before the polls close at 8 pm that attempts to project or characterize the final outcome of the recall race. The exit poll numbers can change over the course of the evening as more polling data comes in from people voting later in the day, so they should be read cautiously.
The exit polls are conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of large media organizations (ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC). The poll is done by having a representative sample of voters fill out questionaires at polling places around the state after they vote.
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It is historically true.
When you've spent as many thousand of hours reading about this as I have, you know the depth of the research supporting this and refuting the simplistic indictments of it.
That doesn't mean that you can convince other people, necessarily; it only points to what a thorough acquaintance with the literature demonstrates.
