Mon Jun 4, 2012, 12:47 AM
WI_DEM (32,522 posts)
Final PPP survey of WI--Barrett within 3 points of WalkerLast edited Mon Jun 4, 2012, 12:49 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1)
improvement from their last poll which had Walker up 50-45, it's now Walker 50-47. Barrett leads by two points among indies, but according to PPP GOP voters are more excited to vote than Dems--we'll see about that. Men favor Walker, women favor Barrett. Now, this poll was totally done by land line, no cell phone users. I, for one, only have cell phone as do many of my friends.
Barrett has a 46/46 favorability rating, improved from 43/46 on our first poll after the primary. He's winning with women (52/46), minorities (58-36), young voters (53-39), those in Milwaukee County (61-35), and ones in greater Madison (59-37). This is a close race, closer than it was a couple weeks ago. Scott Walker's still the favorite but Barrett's prospects for an upset look better than they have in a long time. PPP says it will come down to turnout. Indeed it will. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com more gop than dems interviewed, too: Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Democrat ........................................................ 32% Republican...................................................... 34% Independent/Other.......................................... 34%
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21 replies, 1868 views
| Author | Time | Post | |
| WI_DEM | Jun 2012 | OP | |
| bigdarryl | Jun 2012 | #1 | |
| Cali_Democrat | Jun 2012 | #2 | |
| bigdarryl | Jun 2012 | #3 | |
| WI_DEM | Jun 2012 | #4 | |
| Esse Quam Videri | Jun 2012 | #5 | |
| Liberal_Stalwart71 | Jun 2012 | #6 | |
| LiberalFighter | Jun 2012 | #9 | |
| Liberal_Stalwart71 | Jun 2012 | #14 | |
| LiberalFighter | Jun 2012 | #18 | |
| Liberal_Stalwart71 | Jun 2012 | #21 | |
| WI_DEM | Jun 2012 | #7 | |
| LiberalFighter | Jun 2012 | #8 | |
| Joseph28 | Jun 2012 | #10 | |
| FSogol | Jun 2012 | #11 | |
| Robbins | Jun 2012 | #12 | |
| WI_DEM | Jun 2012 | #13 | |
| bigdarryl | Jun 2012 | #19 | |
| littlewolf | Jun 2012 | #15 | |
| WI_DEM | Jun 2012 | #16 | |
| littlewolf | Jun 2012 | #17 | |
| HooptieWagon | Jun 2012 | #20 |
Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 12:56 AM
bigdarryl (9,136 posts)
1. Rethugs are more excited than dems for this recall
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So basically this poll is saying the democratic party has done a horrible job of getting people out to vote WTF and the rethugs are more excited so taken from this poll we are to believe that all this early voting is favoring the rethugs I've heard that before in 2004 with Ohio
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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #1)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 01:53 AM
Cali_Democrat (14,654 posts)
2. Darryl....
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Why are you so pessimistic? Buck up
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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #2)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 05:48 AM
bigdarryl (9,136 posts)
3. I'm not Im just seeing what PPP is polling
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Last edited Mon Jun 4, 2012, 05:50 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1) That Supposedly the republicans are more excited about voting in the recall I find that unbelievable
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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #3)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 07:29 AM
WI_DEM (32,522 posts)
4. the thing is that it is within the margin of error, dems will vote and if they do in sufficient
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numbers Barrett will win.
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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #4)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 08:11 AM
Esse Quam Videri (555 posts)
5. If the votes are counted........
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I think that may be what Darryl was alluding to with his reference to 2004 Ohio. Seems like PPP has put out a canard about repugs being more excited to vote so when they pull out the ever so slightest win everyone will know why.
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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #1)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 08:11 AM
Liberal_Stalwart71 (13,825 posts)
6. What it says to me is that Democrats haven't learned their lesson from 2010.
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When we don't vote, we lose. It's just that simple.
I don't blame the Democratic Party because we're being outspent nearly 30 to 1!! |
Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #6)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 09:54 AM
LiberalFighter (31,071 posts)
9. Blame the party.
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They need to be blamed when they don't put together a good plan and activate it. There is not enough guidance and help from the top down of the right type. They provide some of the tools but don't push those tools to be used effectively either.
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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #9)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 10:41 AM
Liberal_Stalwart71 (13,825 posts)
14. Could there possibly be a good plan but that it's being drowned out by KKKoch Bros.
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money? What if the message is being thwarted by an aquiescent and complicit media? What if Walker continues to lie about his record but no one in the media corrects him.
We as Democrats need to wise up. This is about getting out the vote, regardless of what the Democratic Party does or does not do. We don't see the Teabaggers running around with their heads down. They fucking NEVER blame their own party. Why is it that Democrats are quick to blame the party but NOT the Republicans? Not the special interests? Not the media? |
Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #14)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 11:27 AM
LiberalFighter (31,071 posts)
18. I'm quick to blame the party because I understand how it operates.
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They have the tools but they aren't coordinated enough to fully implement them.
The party may be doing a fine job in certain facets of the operations but there are other parts if fully implemented would make it possible for everyone to do more because they wouldn't have to do as much prep work. If they don't have to spend as much time in one part of the operation it means they can spend more in others making them more productive. |
Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #18)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 04:58 PM
Liberal_Stalwart71 (13,825 posts)
21. You know that they have the tools a la the message but that message gets drowned out
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Last edited Mon Jun 4, 2012, 04:59 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1) by a complicit media. That's what I'm seeing with my own two eyes.
To the extent that it is the Democratic Party's fault, I charge that they hate their liberal base. The liberals in the party are often silenced, while the so-called "moderates" and DLC corporatists and their Blue Dog syncophants are often put front and center. Those are typically the soft spoken, milquetoast, acquiescent Democrats that get the exposure. I do blame the party for its disdain towards the liberal base. |
Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 09:43 AM
WI_DEM (32,522 posts)
7. Interestingly PPP's final 2010 poll ended up being more heavily for Walker than
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the results turned out. IN the final 2010 poll Walker led by 9-points, 53-44. In the election, Barrett lost by a closer 52-47. Hopefully this poll, too, will over state Walker's vote.
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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 09:51 AM
LiberalFighter (31,071 posts)
8. If the turnout is higher than in 2010 then Barrett should win. I would think.
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Walker won by 124,638 votes in 2010.
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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 10:02 AM
Joseph28 (14 posts)
10. Final PPP survey of WI--Barrett within 3 points of Walker
much appreciated |
Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 10:15 AM
FSogol (16,002 posts)
11. "it will come down to turnout"
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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 10:22 AM
Robbins (2,050 posts)
12. WI
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The problem has been most pollsters have been using a likely voter sample which assumes Republicans are more likely to vote.
This race Is all about turnout.If there Is presidental leval turnout and Barrett leads with Independents that Is bad for Walker. Notice how Republicans are saying nothing about their intenal polling and the RNC has already started voter fraud talk which may be their spin as why Walker Is recalled. This poll has had Barrett go up while Walker remains the same. If Barrett wins It may be In part because of his denate performance. Unlike 2010 Independents are no going heavily for Republicans.So If Democrats go out and vote with Barrett leading Independents the recall Is winable. If Barrett wins recall It will create a shock through the country.It will force pollsters to reconsider their likely voter models.Despite what Republicans think even polls with walker leading the recall have Obama winning In November |
Response to Robbins (Reply #12)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 10:34 AM
WI_DEM (32,522 posts)
13. Indeed, in the final PPP poll of 2010 Walker led by 14-points among Indies
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54-40, today in the final PPP poll for 2012, Barrett leads among indies by 2--48-46. Otherwise, the other demos are pretty much the same as 2010. Barrett had 88% of Dems in both surveys while Walker has 90% of GOP.
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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #13)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 11:54 AM
bigdarryl (9,136 posts)
19. Why is he only getting 88% of the democrats it should be 95% at least
Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 11:03 AM
littlewolf (1,582 posts)
15. the only poll that matters happens Tuesday ... nt
Response to littlewolf (Reply #15)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 11:10 AM
WI_DEM (32,522 posts)
16. which is why GOTV is so important.
Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 12:12 PM
HooptieWagon (6,294 posts)
20. Where does the assumption Rs are more exited to vote come from?
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Is this a poll result, or simply a MSM meme?
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much appreciated