Bernie is the best general election candidate.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

Somebody claimed if Bernie wins the nomination, he’ll lose 46 states.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251422145#post1

Here are the pros and cons.

Money: Hillary. She has Wall Street contributors and Big Oil and a SuperPac. But my gut tells me (haven't started the research yet), that Bernie is one of the best fundraisers of all time among nominee seekers at this stage (just declared $15M this period).

Democratic establishment: Hillary. She has the party establishment, straight up. But she doesn't have Elizabeth Warren and Bernie is doing better with organized labor.

Polls: Hillary. But Bernie is redistributing her poll wealth directly into his column. There is a distinct possibility he could pass her in one or more early states, something very few foresaw three months ago.

Less Baggage: Bernie. Hillary has decades of baggage and high negatives. Bernie is the cleanest ethically of all candidates. He doesn’t have a SuperPac, he won’t take Big Oil or Big Coal money and he couldn’t get Wall Street support, even if he wanted it.

Enthusiasm: Bernie. Just listen to the crowds and go on the Net. He doesn’t have to buy supporters from India.

Crowds: Bernie. No contest. His major problem is finding a sufficiently large venue in many locations.

Charisma: Bernie. He don’t need no stinkin’ teleprompter.

Ethics: Bernie. See above.

Policies: Bernie is more in sync with American opinion than any other candidate. Wall Street is afraid of him. Politically, that’s good thing in this environment.

As to polls, remember the topic is Bernie as a general election candidate. It presumes Bernie has already passed Hillary in the polls, won sufficient delegates, Hillary's endorsement and accepted the nomination, followed likely by a healthy post-convention bounce. Running against Bush or Rubio, for example, he could easily come out ahead. The Party establishment will fall in line and Bernie has shown himself to be a great campaigner throughout his career. As nominee, Bernie’s already considerable fundraising ability will take a quantum leap.

Finally, Bernie’s trump card is the zeitgeist. Bernie is no George McGovern. He’s much more charismatic and dynamic. He isn’t running against an incumbent war time president with a booming economy. He’ll be running for an open seat, with advantages in almost all categories listed above.

The American people are a lot more liberal and populist (by policies if not always by self-identification) than they have been in a long time. They have been assaulted by post 9-11 shock doctrine hysteria, leading to militarization of police, unwarranted (literally) domestic surveillance against innocent civilians and a foreign policy driven by fear and jingoism. They have had bad wars and US as world cop policies put on a trillionaire credit card, only to create new terrorists but never make us safer.

The billionaires and corporations who refuse to pay for these wars but only profit from them find political influence ever more cheap to buy as they demand more tax cuts and new international “fair trade” deals. Partly because of these trade deals more Americans are underemployed or unemployed while workers lose ground on real wages and the middle class keeps shrinking. Bernie says the real unemployment rate is over 11%.

Bernie is on the right side of all these issues and the Republican candidates are not at all. Bernie is the most mainstream candidate in the race. A majority of the American people agree with him.

But Bernie is not just about the truth, he is about the whole truth. Climate change consistently ranks low as an issue the American people care about. Scientists tell us we need to be dead serious about it but the corporate media hardly makes a peep. Bernie features this in his speeches, not because it is the politically expedient thing to do, but because it is right. The people are responding to his authenticity because he is the real deal. If nominated, he is likely to win. If elected he will call for a grassroots revolution to descend on Washington.

That is why he is the best candidate for the Democratic Party.

[madokie]

1. Bernie simply is the right person for the times

America is in dire need of a person of his integrity

Bernie will be our next POTUS.

[pacalo]

45. Well said, madokie, & that's my feeling as well.

He's my preference for the times.

[GitRDun]

2. I think Bernie has his weaknesses, too.

He's no foreign policy expert.

I think he could be more nuanced on trade. The jobs are going TPP or not.

I am not certain yet he's the best. I'll keep watching though.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

4. Foreign policy, on paper

is a weakness for Bernie and on paper (and in experience) Hillary has a decided advantage. I should have covered that and didn't explicitly.

Having said that, I believe Bernie injects much more wisdom into his developing foreign policy. For example, he says in dealing with ISIS, Saudia Arabia, not the US should do the heavy lifting in military operations. They have the third largest defense budget in the world, I believe.

Hillary's foreign policy in practice includes voting for the greatest foreign policy blunder in American history. It also includes TPP, Tar Sands and promoting fracking in eastern Europe. She is hawkish in a way that is not fair to our service members, is fiscally irresponsible and actually makes us less safe, imo.

So I see the world embracing Bernie's foreign policy the way they wanted to embrace President Obama when they prematurely awarded him the Nobel Peace Prize. The world is also ready for real leadership from the US on climate change.

[Scuba]

5. +1

[azmom]

7. +1

[Beagle One]

9. +1

And one more advantage that blows away the foreign policy "weakness" - Obama. He had zero FP experience before being nominated and elected.

So FP is another nonsense to me, and we needs to focus on domestic issues more than we spend being the world cop, I agree with Bernie - SA needs to deal with their own fucking messes. Saudi Arabia needs to start acting like a leader in the Middle East, not a lazy leech that forgets how to fight.

[Ed Suspicious]

23. +1

[upi402]

28. lol Bengazi Bengazi Begazi

Did you forget they own the media due to her husband's Telecommunications Act?
And that they used it to turn War Hero John Kerry into a liar, fraud, coward, and a poser....


https://berniesanders.com/
Bernie is the real deal. We actually have someone to vote for that wont screw us over... and over... and over again.

[cascadiance]

37. Even the war tax he just proposed is something that will help make better foreign policy...

I hope it was an idea he stole from me (when I proposed in an initial platform the day he announced here!), but nonetheless, I think such a tax would help get the big money to try and disinvest from the military industrial complex and be invested in other parts of the economy (in hopefully more constructive ways). And by disinvesting in the military industrial complex and having big money trying to get us out of wars instead of in to them, I think will set him miles ahead of many recent presidents that have had a hard time staying out of them! It will also help rebuild our image around the world as a country less interested in pushing their way around every place with a big military axe.

[GitRDun]

43. I hear ya and I am open to Bernie's ideas

I'll address a couple of the comments I see here:

Saudi Arabia should take the lead - Obama would like that, we all would. They won't lead so what now? Bernie, IMO needs to develop an approach to the Middle East we can understand and get behind.

Obama had no experience - True but he had a clear world view that was well articulated. His vision was well received on trips overseas prior to his election. Bernie's not there yet.

I love the guy, I'm just saying he has work to do before getting in the ring with Hillary on non-domestic issues, e.g. foreign policy and trade.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

46. I don't know of any pressure exerted on the Saudis

to take a leading role, do you?

All I remember is ISIS got American attention by decapitating some Americans online and then there was an immediate firestorm from the GOP to get the US military involved. And off we went again. Our trillions spent and thousands in casualties have accomplished perhaps less than nothing. The era of the US military taking the lead role simply has to end. Of course it's a difficult situation, because US involvement has been a huge fiasco. I haven't heard any useful suggestions from Hillary. She appears to be a knee-jerk hawk. When you are digging yourself into a hole, the first part of any reasonable policy is to stop digging. We have been digging since 2002. We are less safe now than ever, imo. So I think Bernie has been showing greater savvy on the Middle East than Hillary since at least 2002.

On trade, I think Bernie is ready to clean her clock in a debate right now.

But I do take your point on his need to flesh out foreign policy. It will rise as a campaign priority when the debates are announced. I'm sure they are working on it now. I hope they will reach out to pragmatists like Richard Clarke. He was generally much more in sync with Bernie than Hillary all along and has real gravitas on the Middle East and probably eastern Europe and China.

[GitRDun]

62. Here is an article discussing the Obama administration's position

on the need for local countries to take the lead against ISIS.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/iraq-syria-neighbors-lead-isis-obama-aide-article-1.2129410

My point is merely that Bernie needs to develop a clear, broad vision for us.

He CAN clean Hillary's clock on both issues if he develops a broader view.

You think TPP sucks, great! What do we do to reverse the jobs that will be leaving with OR without TPP?

You think local countries should be taking the lead in ME? Great! How are you going to make that happen and what are your thoughts if it doesn't?

I am really rooting for him. We could really use another thoroughly decent man in the White House! That character will make up for a lot of inexperience.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

68. Thanks for the article.

I will try to read it today.

You think TPP sucks, great! What do we do to reverse the jobs that will be leaving with OR without TPP?

You think local countries should be taking the lead in ME? Great! How are you going to make that happen and what are your thoughts if it doesn't?

Bernie's platform includes millions of infrastructure jobs and green jobs, Good jobs, so I think he has that covered.

We have tremendous influence with the Saudis, since I think we supply them with most of their arms and are their military guarantor. If not, I can't think of a good approach. It may be as intractable as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But our shoot first, think later policy has made the ME much more unstable, created untold numbers of new terrorists all over the world, cost us over a trillion dollars so far and has been a shameful treatment of our military service members. So maybe nobody has an answer for the this post Iraq invasion ME, but we need somebody who will stop digging the hole. Hillary has supported hole digging in the ME for over a decade. Bernie wants to stop digging. That's a better policy start in my view.

And thanks for your insightful comments!

[hifiguy]

53. Eeyup.

Bernie can provide a new kind of principled foreign policy to which our allies would respond with enthusiasm. He knows that cooperation among coequals rather than unilateral imperialism is the way forward. And it HAS to be.

[Enthusiast]

71. Well said, Admiral.

[SoapBox]

73. +1

And when HRC says that, It Takes a Village...

That village is located on Wall Street.

America needs Bernie.

[PatrickforO]

3. I agree with virtually all Bernie's positions. He will be good for America.

[Gothmog]

6. I have yet to see anything that shows that Sanders is a viable general election candidate

Sanders fundraising is really very weak in comparison to what will be needed. Hillary Clinton raised $45 directly over the same period and her super pacs raised another $25 million. $12.5 of the super pac money came in the last couple of weeks after the super pac was reorganized. Sanders fundraising is at best weak and if he does not have a super pac, he will be at an extreme disadvantage.

The Kochs will be spending $887 million and the eventualy GOP nominee will likely raise another billion dollars. Sanders can not compete against that type of fundraising. As for the McGovern comparison, I am old and while I missed voting in that race, I worked on the McGovern campaign. He was a good speaker who was killed in the fundraising race and who was out of the mainstream. I am afraid that it would not be that difficult to paint Sanders as outside of the mainstream.

I like Sanders personally and I agree with most of his policies. According to the online quiz posted a couple of weeks ago, I am closer to Sanders than to Clinton. I am simply not convinced that Sanders is a viable general election candidate. I am open to any facts that show me otherwise but I did not see any facts in the OP. Speculation and hope are great things but I need facts.

[Beagle One]

11. So out of touch...

Bernie is doing very well, and Hillary's donors are probably tapped or maxed out until the general election - this early; and numbers will look bad in Q3. Bernie taps and continues to tap every support, source and doesn't accept SuperPAC's or don't expect funding from a billionaire, and frankly squeaky clean candidate. Bernie's issues continues to resonate an average American, like myself, a part of the 99% who has been longing to get out of the right-wing toxic atmosphere that we currently live in, and move to the left. They call us "fringe left" - when all the values are mainstream Democratic values, that has long been rejected by the Republican-Lite Third Way Party, which Clinton is clearly a part of, has expensive advisors and staff. 90% of it will go to overhead, and yes, at the end, Clinton will run herself down to a debt. Just like in 2008. Same script for Clinton.

Like watching Groundhog Day... for Clinton...

[Gothmog]

12. Again, facts would be nice

All you are offering is pure speculation and wishful thinking. We are in the primary process and you can not expect the base of the Democratic party to support Sanders if you have no facts showing how he can be viable in the general election. While I like Sanders, viablity in the general election is critical and I do not see Sanders being viable

In Texas, I doubt that Sanders will break 15% which is the threashold to get delegates out of the primary process.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

13. If you're looking for polling data

I haven't seen any. Apparently it is so far beyond the pale in expert opinion, he is not polled against the GOP much yet. If there have been polls, I don't expect his numbers to be good yet, since he is probably still on a curve regarding name recognition. If he wins the nomination and starts shredding the Republican on the campaign trail and in debates, I expect a favorable result.

As to McGovern, I supported him enthusiastically but I always thought he was a sub par speaker. His dentures made him talk and smile weirdly and his tonality and cadence were sub par. I loved most of what he said, but the only charisma he had came from his policies and his ethics, not his presentation. Saying that he would crawl to Hanoi for peace talks if that's what it took was horrible politics. His campaign was still born when he accepted the nomination in the middle of the night and had to replace his VP candidate within a week of the convention. He had a passionate following but nowhere near the breadth of demographic appeal of Bernie. He did not appeal to Republicans, Bernie does appeal to some.

If Bernie gets the nomination, his fundraising will be at a completely different level. And there will be a backlash to all that dark money I don't believe the Koch brothers can effectively spend all that money. There is a point of diminishing returns, followed by saturation, followed by backlash. There will be a lot of information out there about the Koch brothers and their partners in crime.

[Gothmog]

29. You are comparing McGovern to Nixon who was a poor public speaker at best

There was a great deal of passion against Nixon and the war in 1972 but that passion did not translate to votes. The anti-war faction was very passionate in those days and Nixon gave people a great deal to dislike but that passion was limited to a comparative small number of activists and did not translate to the general election. I fear the same thing with Sanders in that a small percentage of the Democratic base may be passionate about Sanders but will not spread beyond this faction. Remember that DU does not represent the base of the Democratic party.

It is still primary time and I am waiting for facts and/or polling that shows that Sanders is viable. I am very concerned that Sanders would be at a major disadvantage as to financing. Again, time will tell

[virtualobserver]

36. If Bernie is able to win the nomination while being.....

outspent 5 to 1 by Hillary, would you then believe that he can win the GE?

[Gothmog]

57. No, because Clinton is not going to go negative on Bernie

The GOP will use the $2 billion or so in campaign funds to bury Sanders with negative ads.

[BuelahWitch]

60. Clinton's team has already gone negative on Bernie

I guess you missed all those posts that implied Bernie was a racist because of all the white people at his rallies? Those talking points came from somewhere...

[Gothmog]

61. You are wrong

That is really a wrong statement that is based on the fact that so far Sanders has attracted little if any African American support. The fact that you believe that secret talking points are being sent is a claim that you can not support and I am sad that you believe this claim.

No one said that Sanders is a racist but pointed out that the African American voter is very likely to go to Hillary Clinton. In Texas, I can tell you that the African American and the Hispanic vote are strongly behind Hillary Clinton. I hate to break it to you but I doubt that Sanders will play well in some key parts of the country or with some key demographic groups.

I like Sanders and would vote for him if he is the nominee. However, right now I do not see Sanders being viable at all in a general election contest. If you have facts to show that Sanders is viable, please present these facts but to date I have not seen anything to change my opinion as to Sanders viability.

[Enthusiast]

72. Bernie Sanders is more viable in the general election election than Hillary.

This will be made clear to you soon.

[Gothmog]

74. I look forward to seeing some facts supporting this view

Right now, Sanders is polling poorly against all of the GOP candidates. See http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=423206 This is a PPP poll

I am very afraid that Sander will not be to compete financially with the Kochs and the GOP candidate. I keep asking for facts showing that sanders is viable and have to see any facts. I am really afraid that Sanders would suffer the same fate as McGovern in that a well financed GOP machine can paint him out of the mainstream and without sufficient financial resources, there will be nothing that Sanders could do to combat this.

[Enthusiast]

77. I do not care what those particular polls tell us at this time.

Compete financially? That's the point. We have to end the practice of billionaires buying candidates and elections. This is exactly what has ruined the nation. Bernie is just the candidate to end it.

You will not destroy my enthusiasm no matter how hard you try. And it is your goal to dampen the enthusiasm of Sanders supporters, don't deny it.

When you compare Sanders to McGovern your credibility goes up in smoke. Which corporate stooge wrote that talking point? These are different times. Apparently you haven't recognized that.

[Gothmog]

79. Fundraising is very important

This was in an article that was largely favorable to Sanders http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/03/bernie-sanders-grassroots-movement-gains-clinton-machine

Harvard University professor Lawrence Lessig, who founded a Super Pac to end Super Pacs, said Sanders’ renouncing Super Pacs is tantamount to “bringing a knife to a gunfight”.

“I regret the fact the Bernie Sanders has embraced the idea that he’s going to live life like the Vermont snow, as pure as he possibly can, while he runs for president, because it weakens his chances – and he’s an enormously important progressive voice,” Lessig said.

President Obama was forced to use a super pac in 2012 just to keep the spending close. I do not see how Sanders can be viable in the general election. The Kochs and the GOP candidate will likely have $2 billion or more to use in negative ads to paint Sanders out of the mainstream and without sufficient financial resources, Sanders will be unable to respond. Nixon did the same thing to McGovern in in 1972.

[Enthusiast]

80. You will not dampen my enthusiasm.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

81. If Bernie gets the nomination,

or even prior to that, I don't believe Bernie has the power to stop a Super Pac from working for his benefit, Do you know any different. So as nominee, Bernie could have SuperPac money used on his behalf, just not a SuperPac he created. It's a free country and George Soros can spend all the dark money he wants through existing SuperPacs on Bernie's behalf, as far as I know.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

41. Nixon was no great stumper

but as an incumbent experienced in the Southern Strategy, he used his organization well. In addition, he had big labor (only time in my lifetime). The McGovern campaign was a fiasco. I loved him, but he was ill-fated.

Bernie is getting labor behind him. He is charismatic and an effective stumper. Sooner or later we will have more meaningful data if he continues on this arc and as his fundraising and the campaign/movement becomes organized nationally, I expect we will have more to talk about.

[Gothmog]

64. Organizations require money and CREP was an extremely effective money machine

Nixon killed McGovern with superior organization and financing. So far I have seen little to change my opinion as to the viability of Sanders in a general election contest. It takes a great deal of money to get out the vote and Sanders does not appear to be likely to generate that type of money.

I remember that the anti-war segment supporting McGovern were very very passionate at the time. In fact to some degree, Nixon used that passion against McGovern. I am not convinced that the Kochs and the GOP nominee will not be able to play the same trick on Sanders.

Viability in the general election is a major concern to me. Time will tell but right now, I have seen no facts that show me that Sanders will be viable.

[Gothmog]

82. This ad from the McGovern campaign brought memories

I worked in that campaign also. This ad was typical of the McGovern strategy http://www.vox.com/2015/9/14/9323459/mcgovern-sanders

[DanTex]

21. I agree with this 100%. Bernie is great. But I haven't seen any plausible argument that

he can win the GE. This is a country that voted for Bush twice and currently has voted for a Republican senate and house. I don't like that, but it's the truth.

[Beagle One]

30. in 2014, Third Wayers lost the majority of the election

People are sending a message: Deliver us progressive candidates, and we'll vote for them.

Why? Progressive issues won 2014, while Third Way candidates lost. That's a fact.

[DanTex]

33. That's because they were running in red states/districts.

I see no evidence whatsoever that someone as liberal as Bernie can win nationwide.

[redstateblues]

48. I like Bernie but here's a News flash. In TN Bernie will draw less than the 40% We usually draw in statewide elections

Statewide elections. He has no chance in any of the southern states-the Bronx accent and the Socialist tag are deal breakers. His ideas are great but once the Kochs start hammering him on his Socialist ideology it will get ugly.

[HooptieWagon]

51. I'm in Florida, there's excitment here about Bernie...

from Dems and even a few repubs.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

70. Gore won in 2000 without TN. n/t

[Gothmog]

75. Negative ads work and the kochs and the GOP candidate will have a ton of money to use against Sander

[RufusTFirefly]

32. Hmmm. I thought our democracy was based on votes, not fundraising.

If democracy depends on which candidate has the most money, then you are correct: Bernie will lose. Democracy is supposed to be based on the number of votes, not the number of dollars. But if you truly believe that money determines whether or not a candidate is electable, I hope that you refrain from using the term "democracy" to describe this scenario.

[JDPriestly]

56. Perhaps if Hillary loses the primary, she will hand some of her extra campaign funds over

to Bernie in order to insure that a liberal who, as many say, agrees with her on many issues, will be in the White House.

More likely than that, however, Bernie would stick to his principles and limit himself to public monney.

[99Forever]

8. Spot on observations, Admiral L.

Might I add, the element that NONE of the snooze media has even acknowledged, let alone accounted for:


The Game Changer


Social Media


We don't need the corporate whore "MSM," we have We the People and a means to talk with almost EVERYONE.

USE IT!

[Admiral Loinpresser]

14. +1 n/t

[Thinkingabout]

10. Before going to the general election Bernie will need to get through the primary.

[TheProgressive]

15. Citizen conservatives/republicans will *not* vote for Hillary Clinton.

Even in 2006, conservatives/republicans up here in Northern California were
saying how 'Hillary will take their guns'.

Rich republicans will,of course, vote for Hillary, because Hillary is basically a rich republican.

And Senator Sanders has a track record of having republicans voting for him.

[Triana]

16. Do you mean "free trade"?

You wrote “fair trade” - but free trade and fair trade are two very different things.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

24. Hastily written. Thanks for the catch. n/t

[fbc]

17. I concur, but I'd add one thing:

Bernie doesn't have the weight of over 20 years of vicious hate propaganda from the far-right hanging over his head. It's not fair, but a significant portion of the US population had been conditioned to hate Hillary Clinton.

[DanTex]

22. On the contrary, despite 20 years of hate propaganda, Hillary is crushing the GOP in all the polls.

Bernie has been exposed to no GOP attacks so far. And he's a self-described socialist. Who would be running a grossly underfunded campaign. I don't see it.

[cascadiance]

39. I think it is who the GOP voters you are measuring...

Yes, the Clinton's got a lot of unfair attacks from Whitewater and MonicaGate, etc. that I think still carry over through today with the Rush Limbaugh crowd.

But likewise, I think there are a lot of other less informed voters that look on that experience and those times as a more visible view of her being viciously attacked by the right and that making her somehow a champion for the left. Which is why so many of them like her over the Republicans, and for many of us, depending on whether the poll offers a choice of Bernie in the mix too, we'd prefer her to most Republicans on the docket now too.

But the latter Republicans and Democrats, when they get to know Bernie more, will see that he's the real deal about trying to rebuild this country and to restore what has been taken away by both the two major parties over the last few decades that has lead to our economic downturn. Once Bernie starts campaigning in these states, these numbers will even out, like they have already done rapidly in places like New Hampshire.

[BrotherIvan]

18. ANY Democrat will win

it is electoral math. No Republican can win all tossup states and a solidly blue state and that is what he will need. The argument that only Hillary can win the general is the same one put forth in 2008. How's that working out?

[DanTex]

19. You left out "Bernie is a self-described socialist".

[Admiral Loinpresser]

27. Bernie brushes off McCarthy-ite

attacks and gets right back on the attack with masterful political judo. He loves to describe who the real extremists are.

[ConservativeDemocrat]

31. Claiming everything is a "McCarthy-ite attack" to dodge questions

...works on the DU.

And Bernie would win the votes of DUers in the general election in runaway fashion against Bush.

But the United States is not the DU. Hell, even liberal Democratic primary voters aren't the DU.

- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community

[Admiral Loinpresser]

42. He never dodges a question.

He simply points out that the extremists are in the GOP.

[ConservativeDemocrat]

49. Oh we agree on that much. Bernie is much better than many of his supporters.

But still, the "no you" business simply doesn't work with the center. And by actually calling himself a socialist, he has given massive amounts of ammunition to the GOP.

He is flat out unelectable in the general. Hell, he's not even electable in the primary. He's following the same trajectory as Kucinich did, who packed in the same fan base into his speeches.

- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community

[Admiral Loinpresser]

50. I don't recall

Kucinich ever having this much juice or raising this much money. Bernie is ahead of where Obama was at this point in 2007.

[ConservativeDemocrat]

54. The Democratic field was far more split then

There were three major contenders: Hillary, Edwards, and Obama. And Biden, Dodd, and Richardson. None of them had anywhere near an absolute majority of support from Democratic primary voters. This is, in fact, why some thought Kucinich could win: supposedly the mainstream voters would turn towards Kucinich when their candidate dropped out.

Right now, almost no one is running against Hillary as a serious candidate, and so Bernie is able to collect up most everyone who doesn't like Hillary. But he's not climbing much further, and Hillary still has the support of an absolute majority of Democratic primary voters.

- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community

[Admiral Loinpresser]

58. Today I start working in earnest in my state,

so I can't go further with this. Time will tell. But there is very high enthusiasm at this point. Higher even than Obama, Dean or Jackson at this stage, as I recall, maybe comparable with RFK. All I can do is work for the revolution we need. And I'm starting today!

[ConservativeDemocrat]

67. Good for you. Seriously.

I have the highest respect for the people in the party who actually work to change it more towards their liking, rather than spend all their time throwing rhetorical spit-bombs on the DU, trying to persuade people to sit out elections.

As I've said to other people, I am absolutely going to be working to get the Democratic nominee elected. I know "party loyalty" is considered some sort of character flaw around these parts, but it does indeed go both ways.

- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community

[Admiral Loinpresser]

69. +1 n/t

[99th_Monkey]

20. K&R - An awesome statement. Thanks for posting it. nt

[upi402]

25. He's the ONLY one that wont fuck us

My decision is made.
https://berniesanders.com/
... and I put my money where my mouth is!

[iandhr]

26. I lived in Vermont for four years during college

I am very familiar with Bernie Sanders. I am a huge fan of his.

But he can't win a general election

[marym625]

34. K&R! Yeah he is!

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

35. I don't think Bernie will come anywhere near raising as much money, but...

I don't think that raising tons of cash, especially from big banks or billionaires is going to necessarily be a good thing this time. Sure it buys you more airtime, more signs, whatever, but it's also baggage in and of itself at a time when one of the main messages of the race is wealth inequity and billionaires buying DC.

[cascadiance]

40. I think he needs to stick to the plan of avoiding PAC money as much as possible...

... because if he does let PAC money in to any significant degree, it will defeat the core of his campaign message that he's trying to have resonate with voters that he's the voice that isn't going to be bought compared to all others in both his party and the Republicans especially.

If he loses that message, then he won't win. But as long as he has that message, and shows a lot of grass roots strength in early states that he might win, that will build his success even more.

If he shows that he can win, without the big donors' money, there will be many, many more voters wanting to jump on his bandwagon if they see there's a way out of this big money "bought government" madness that he could represent. They will look on him as REAL hope and change, and not just the "Hope and change" that Obama verbally promissed in 2008.

[HooptieWagon]

52. Don't forget, Hillary travels with an entourage...

...5star hotels, and all that stuff. Bernie is much more frugal, he'll stretch his budget further. Only advantage Hillary's $ have is commercials..but .they can be over saturated where people are sick of them and start to get pissed.

[SheilaT]

38. In 2007 this far ahead of the 2008 election,

Hillary Clinton was crushing Barack Obama in the polls. So Bernie's poll numbers at this point are only semi-relevant. And as more people get to know him, the better he will do.

It is absolutely crucial that people here do NOT fall for the notion that the Democratic nominee, no matter who he or she turns out to be, will automatically win the general election. It won't be that easy. Demographics help, but aren't everything.

First off, there's a general feeling on the part of the great American electorate, that after 8 years of one party, the other one should be in the White House. Not necessarily rational, but it's true.

With Hillary, the problem is that she comes with very heavy baggage. Everything Bill ever did will be held against her. Not fair, but it will be. Another huge problem is that there is NOT such a vast yearning out there for a woman President that hordes of Republican women will cross over and vote for her. Think, people. Especially you women. If Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann were to be the Republican nominee, would any of you vote for her just to have a woman as President? I didn't think so.

Bernie's biggest hurdles, aside from fund-raising, will be overcoming a perception that he's too old, too white, too Northeasterner to be electable. I'm hoping that over time he'll make those things not matter. His running mate, if he gets the nomination, will make a vast difference. I'd like to see Elizabeth Warren in that position, but I make no actual speculation about who might be his VP.

Similarly, Hillary's VP choice, if she is nominated, will matter hugely.

Not that I personally make my selection of who to vote for based on the VP. I was extremely unhappy with Al Gore's choice in 2000, in fact thought it was about the worst possible choice he could make, but I still voted for him.

The real uphill battle, no matter who our nominee will be, is fighting against the results of Citizens United. The majority of voters out there truly are low-information voters. They see only surface things, learn everything they think they need to know from the ads on TV, and haven't a clue that any of those ads might be lies. If I were dictator of North America, I'd take everyone's TV away from them by May or June of next year, so that no one would see any more political ads. I don't own a TV myself, and just not seeing political ads makes my life much more worth living.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

44. You are right about open cycles

when one party has been in for two terms, history says the other side should win. But also history says it is likely to be an extremely close election. Dukakis-Bush is the exception that proves the rule. Plus Dukakis started out ahead but had a really terrible strategy from August on.

[brooklynite]

76. The fun thing about the Internet is that you can look up facts...

In 2007 this far ahead of the 2008 election, Hillary Clinton was crushing Barack Obama in the polls. So Bernie's poll numbers at this point are only semi-relevant.

...This time in 2007, Clinton was certainly leading Obama, but she was at about 40-45%, allowing Obama to pick up enough votes to beat her.



Right now, by comparison, Clinton is at 55-60% and has been for the past year.

[Juicy_Bellows]

47. I agree he is the best choice.

The Blue Wall is a real thing. If Bernie wins the primary then I would imagine Hillary supporters will get on board and vote for him - I would also expect the PAC money would help fund advertising for the party.

I do think there is too much dislike of her on the right, that Bernie would fair better in the GE. Before someone throws out the socialist card, the people that might be effected by that bullshit wouldn't vote for a liberal anyway.

[JDPriestly]

55. K&R. Well said.

[Babel_17]

59. Eisenhower was an enigma who just announced he was running as a Republican

He just resonated with the public, and that was a big part of his win. His charisma as the leader of the allied forces, and the experience he gained from that, along with the weight that carried with the WWII generation, more than balanced out his being a newcomer.

Those days are gone, and we have new dynamics in play. But the Eisenhower phenomenon has points of interest that are relevant to what is happening with Sanders. Imo, the crowds that are being drawn, the broad appeal, and the emotional response, these are some of the things to look at when seeing similarities between the campaigns of two people who are dissimilar in some of the more obvious ways.

[enigmatic]

65. His campaign was the father of the moden campaign commercial as well

[Babel_17]

66. Thanks! Great videos

Your post triggered a memory of something I read in a Heinlein novel. It's not totally on topic, but it might be of interest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farley_file

[restorefreedom]

63. excellent post.

there is a sea change happening here, and bernie is riding the wave.

people are done being screwed by the 0.01%

feel the bern!!

[DCBob]

78. Bottom line.. Bernie is a bigger risk of losing in the general election.

Furthermore recent polling shows Hillary beating all GOP candidates fairly easily. The limited polling with Bernie against a GOP contender shows Bernie trailing. If your main concern is keeping the WH blue then Hillary is your candidate.