Mass knows Robdme - NY Times: Romney’s Massachusetts Woes: A Bad Omen? (Obama up 25)

[Scuba]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/24/romneys-massachsetts-woes-a-bad-omen/

A new poll in Massachusetts has confirmed what everyone knows — that Mitt Romney will very likely lose Massachusetts in November to President Obama. The Suffolk University/7 News poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday, shows Mr. Obama ahead by 25 percentage points among likely voters, with Mr. Romney winning only 34 percent of support in the state where he was once governor.

The interesting point is how this fits into history. It turns out to be rare for a candidate who loses his home state to go on and win the presidency. (Some may quibble with the definition of “home state,” but it generally refers to the state where the candidate lives, not where he was born.)

...


Mr. Romney went to college in Massachusetts, has lived there for years, ran unsuccessfully for the Senate from there and served as governor from 2003 to 2007. His campaign headquarters is based there. But he appears to have almost no chance of winning the state now. This is not to say that he will also lose the presidency, only that the historical odds are against him.

James Thurber, a presidential historian at American University, said that presidents who lose their home states become estranged from their base. “It depends whether the individual has moved away from the core voter in their state, and certainly the story there is that Romney has,” Mr. Thurber said. Of course, you can still win your home state and lose the presidency. Just ask George H.W. Bush, who won Texas in 1992 but lost the presidency, or John Kerry, who lost the presidency in 2004 but won his home state — Massachusetts.

[enough]

1. This is all part of the picture of the campaign he will run.

The usual calculations don't enter in. He doesn't even plan to really campaign in the usual manner, pressing the flesh and all that. He's got only one strategy: money. He's expecting money to win for him just as it has all his life. We shall see.

[siligut]

3. Having dealt with Mormon business men

And knowing some of their underhanded tricks, I would say that it will come down to the ballots.

[treestar]

2. "he can't even win his own state"

Didn't we hear that enough times in 2000?

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. "Didn't we hear that enough times in 2000?"

We did indeed. On a sidenote, have you heard how Elizabeth Warren is faring against Brown? The last poll I saw had her running something like 9 pts behind, while the president enjoyed a double digit lead over Romney. What's up with that?

[treestar]

7. It is weird how state wide vs. national elections differ in states

Look at WI, which went to Obama and is thought of as progressive. I guess it has to do with Republicans being more rabid about local politics. They decided to work their way up from the bottom, starting with school boards and the like. So maybe they have better structures for statewide elections, at least in some places.

[hrmjustin]

5. Dems should make a big stink about the fact he won't win...

...his home state of MA. When Gore lost his home state it was an embarrassment to him and it cost him the election. We should embarrass him that hew won't win MA.

[liberalnationalist]

8. the only home state he will win is

Utah

[hrmjustin]

9. Yea I think you are right.

MI,MA,NH, and CA were he has houses he will loose. If he wins any of them he will probably win the election, but I don't think that will happen.

[Cali_Democrat]

6. If Romney feels his record as Mass governor is so great, why aren't they gonna vote for him?

Hmmmmmm....something doesn't add up.

Obama appears to have no issues with voters from his home state of Illinois

[hrmjustin]

10. You know the media needs to bring this up more.n/t

[NYC Liberal]

11. The Obama campaign should since the media sure as heck won't.

[groundloop]

12. Agree. It's telling that Rmoney seems to avoid any mention of his work as Governor

Since it's now Etch-a-Sketch time I'd have figured he'd highlight some of the things he did as governor as a way to make his move to the center. So far that hasn't happened, and he really seems to be ducking the issue.

[Mr.Turnip]

13. You know the fact that ANYONE thought Mass could be competitive shocks me.

Really the state is the bluest of the blue after Vermont, Romney could win by +10 Nationwide and he'd still easily lose it.