State by State, It's Still Obama

[Fozzledick]

by Michael Tomasky May 22, 2012 3:32 PM EDT

I'm an Electoral College Geek, so we're going to be spending a reasonable amount of time on the subject. As I wrote not too long ago, putting aside the national head-to-head polls and looking at Electoral College counts, Obama has a big edge, and I'll be monitoring that pretty closely.

<snip>

The starkest way to put it is like this. Obama won nine states in 2008 that George Bush had won in 2004. You know them, or should: Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Indiana (11), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), and New Mexico (5). Obama can lose eight of them. That's right, he can give eight of the nine back, as long as the one he wins is Florida, and he hits 275 EV's. And there are many alternative scenarios.

If Obama wins just Ohio and Iowa, or Ohio and Nevada, he's in, with 270. He's nine points up in Iowa right now and is very unlikely to lose it. He's also not going to lose New Mexico, where he's up by double digits. So put it another way. Of the nine flipped states, Romney will win Indiana. But then he has to run the table in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia. That's not impossible but it's all pretty tall order.

And again, class, why? Because the R's have made themselves too crazy even for moderate-to-conservative states like Virginia and Colorado. It's just fine with me if they never figure this out.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/05/22/state-by-state-it-s-still-obama.html

I know a lot can change in six months and we can't afford to be complacent, but I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about the sizable leads that Obama is consistently showing in key swing states.

[struggle4progress]

1. Cautious optimism never elected anybody: what counts is the work

of winning voters and getting them to the polls

[scheming daemons]

2. Obama up 50-42 in PA. Very good sign

PA and Ohio vote very similarly... albeit Ohio is slightly more GOP-friendly.

If Obama is up 8 in PA, he's probably up 3-4 in Ohio.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. I want him to win both FL and NC, but he doesn't need those states to win.

Sitting on pins and needles.

I don't understand why this country's voters suffer so much from cognitive dissonance.