2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama up by 8 in new Pennsylvania Poll
PPP's newest Pennsylvania poll finds things have changed very little in the state over the course of the last ten weeks. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-42, basically the same as his 49-42 advantage there in early March.
It doesn't look like Obama's going to have to worry too much about Pennsylvania this year, and that's a big change from what we found in our polling of the state over the course of 2011. Obama led by an average of less than a point in four PPP polls there last year. He was plagued by poor approval ratings then, but now voters are pretty evenly divided on him with 48% approving and 49% disapproving of the job he's doing. Meanwhile Romney continues to be unpopular, with just 37% of voters rating him positively to 51% with a negative opinion.
Obama and Romney are holding their party's voters in basically equal numbers, with Obama taking 80% of Democrats and Romney 78% of Republicans. In a state where Democrats have a large registration advantage Obama wins if that holds true. It's a departure from some past polls that found him under even 70% of the Democratic vote, but conservative whites seem to be moving back toward him just as they did after supporting Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary. Obama's also up 48-24 with Pennsylvania's small contingent of independent voters.
Obama is up 56-36 with women and 64-28 with young voters, two groups that continue to help provide the base of his support in many swing states.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Eastern PA is also important. Most of all, get those voters in Philadelphia and the suburbs to the polls.
K8-EEE
(15,667 posts)It is so obvious to me that the LOL "LIBERAL" media is trying so hard to push Mitt -- he's such a loser but if it looks that way they lose millions of dollars. Don't forget who is the ultimate recipient of the PAC money, the media! Does that affect the way they cover elections? FOR SURE!
liberalnationalist
(170 posts)the electoral vote maps I've seen this year has a virtual lock on 270 so anything above and beyond that is gravy...wanna bet Obama beats Slick Willard by 8-12 points nationwide?