A First Look at the 2016 Senate Map - A Tougher Take Back For the Dems Than You Might Think

[tgards79]

An early review, state-by-state:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/11/2016-senate-democratic-take-back-is.html

[Skeowes28]

1. Yea

Your right I think dems will win 2016 ala 2004 totals 272 to 290 electoral votes. Dems have the blue wall but Wisconsin is vulnerable Iowa and Virginia needs to be shore up but I thnk thee may be a 3 tx party person that will shave off votes

[Dawson Leery]

2. Early, still....

It is sad that Democrats did not come out to vote. They handed over North Carolina/Iowa/Colorado to the GOP.

I disagree about Arizona. McCain is deeply unpopular in a state that is turning towards the blue side due to demographics.
Richard Carmona needs to run again.

[Skeowes28]

3. I'm in az

McCain isn't as popular true but I think McCain wins and az duesnt turn blue for another 8 to 12 years and we do have a strong tea party faction here

[Yupster]

4. I agree with you.

It looks like Dems should gain, but four gains are tough, though possible.

Here's my quick review.

Democratic Seats (Two competitive)

California - Easy hold whether Boxer runs or not.
Colorado - A tossup race with Bennett the slightest of favorites.
Connecticutt - No money needs to be spent to hold Blumenthals' seat.
Hawaii - another easy hold.
Maryland - No competition for Barbara.
Nevada - I actually put Reid an underdog, tossup if he retires. If Sandoval jumps in, this becomes a Repub lean at least.
New York - Which Republican sacrificial lamb will agree to take on Schumer?
Oregon - Wyden is a lock.
Vermont - Leahy as safe as could be.
Washington - Murray seems to have a close race for a month, and then pulls away for a comfortable win.

Republican Seats (3 Dem favoreds, 6 more competitive)

Alabama - Shelby an easy win.
Alaska - Murkowski a lock unless VP pick.
Arizona - McCain retires rather than losing in primary. That makes this race a toss-up.
Arkansas - Boozeman a lock.
Florida - If Rubio runs, he wins. If he quits to run for prez, it's a toss-up.
Georgia - Isaakson probably cruises, possibility to challenge.
Idaho - Republican easy win.
Illinois - Kirk says he will run for reelection. Will be huge underdog unless some kind of weird health sympathy vote.
Indiana - Coats probably safe.
Iowa - Grassley safe. If he retires, a lean Dem. No Bruce, you can't run for Grassley's seat.
Kansas - Moran a safe bet.
Kentucky - Paul a lock. If he quits to run for prez, probably still likely Repub.
Louisiana - Vitter comfortable as a sleeping baby in diapers.
Missouri - Blunt a slight favorite - Lean Repub.
New Hampshire - Ayotte probably safe.
North Carolina _ Burr a tossup at best.
North Dakota - Hoeven safe.
Ohio - Ohio always close, but I'd make Portman a pretty strong favorite.
Oklahoma - no contest.
Pennsylvania - best pickup opportunity. Toomey a significant underdog to hold on.
South Carolina - Does this guy run every year? He'll win by 25 %.
South Dakota - Thune is safe.
Utah - Mike Lee is probably safe. His competition will be in primary.
Wisconsin - A good pickup opportunity. Ron Johnson can keep his seat but he'd start out a lean - Dem or maybe even likely Dem.

[lastlib]

5. Kansas--in a state full of GOP morans, the one named Moran has gotta win....

...

(what a f*cked-up state!)

[Yupster]

6. And Crapo

seems like a sure bet in Idaho.

[tgards79]

7. Very good analysis

Not terribly different from mine. It'll teeter around 50/50.

[pstokely]

13. whoever wins the WH takes probably take the senate also

nt

[quadrature]

8. I see 3 pickup opportunities

possible flips
Illinois
Penn
Wis
getting 4 out of that is going to be tough

possible D to R flips
Colo
Nevada

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. Louisiana and North Carolina could be in play

I heard that Vitter might resign next year to run for Governor and Landrieu (if she loses this year), could come back and try to run for his seat. Likewise, Hagan could try for Burr's seat in a better election year.

[tgards79]

10. Florida, North Carolina

Florida if Rubio doesn't run
North Carolina, Hagan versus Burr

[Recursion]

11. NC in an election year is good for us

I disagree that that should be "Lean R"

[tgards79]

14. I certainly debated NC in my head

Last edited Mon Nov 17, 2014, 04:33 PM - Edit history (1)

I'd put it in the Dem TU camp if Hagan definitely ran.

[pstokely]

12. Papa Blunt is safe if he runs again

it's R lean to tossup if it's an open seat, MO Dems are running of out candidates with name recognition

[tgards79]

15. Yes I would agree with that

I would not count on Missouri by any stretch...if we win Missouri we'll have won 54 others first!

[pstokely]

16. although Dems hold most of the statewide offices

Repukes don't have a lot of other candidates with wide recognition if Papa Blunt retires

[tgards79]

17. If he retires...

That's the key. Missouri could come into play then...

[mgcgulfcoast]

18. we will have 57 in 2016

[FBaggins]

19. No chance of that

Since the Senate wouldn't form after the election until 2017.

Just for reference... what was your prediction for this current cycle a year or so ago?

[BruceW]

20. Nate Silver's site confirmation

2016 Senate Map - A Tougher Take Back For the Dems Than You Might Think

Nate Silver says the same thing (he is the guy who predicted 2008 and 2012 accurately)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/clinton-probably-cant-expand-the-2016-map-and-if-she-does-it-wont-matter/

?w=610&h=496

[tgards79]

21. Always good to have Nate's support

And it comforts him to have mine!