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Maedhros

(10,007 posts)
Fri Nov 14, 2014, 08:12 PM Nov 2014

If Not Hillary, Who?

Last edited Mon Nov 17, 2014, 02:23 PM - Edit history (2)

Charles Pierce at Esquire tackles the thorny problem facing Democrats in the run-up to the 2016 election:

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/if-not-hillary-who-1114

Why is it a problem that Hillary is viewed as 'inevitable?'

She has "cleared the field." That's what the smart people say. Without even announcing that she will run for president, Hillary Clinton has frozen the Democratic primary process. She has frozen the media's attention and the energies of the party's activists, and, most important of all, she has frozen the wallets of all the big donors, all of whom are waiting for her to jump to decide what they will be doing over the next two years. It is hard to say she's been unusually coy. After leaving her job as secretary of state, Clinton went on a massive book tour, and she's been a fixture on the high-end lecture circuit, her fees for which suddenly became a campaign issue, even though there isn't a campaign yet. And most significantly, she and her people have begun to distance themselves a bit from the president she once served. She arguably was critical of Barack Obama's "Don't do stupid shit" policy. And when the ISIS threat arose in the Middle East, there were a few strategically placed comments from anonymous "Clinton aides" that were critical of the president for not moving fast enough to meet that new threat. By the standards of the fall of 2014, by the same standards that we judge Martin O'Malley by, Hillary Clinton is clearly running for president. And they say she has cleared the field.


This is what "clearing the field" looks like. This is the conventional wisdom that, in our politics today and at this point in a presidential-election cycle, is always far more conventional than it is wise. Hillary Clinton has pride of place unlike any candidate in recent memory: She's the wife of a two-term president, a former senator from New York, and the former secretary of state. She has first call on the party's most talented campaign staffers, both nationally and in the states. She has first call on the party's most overstuffed wallets and on every local- and national-television camera from Iowa to New Hampshire and back again. This has been recognized tacitly by almost every other proposed potential candidate. Vice-president Joseph Biden is curiously (and uncharacteristically) reticent. Liberal darling Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts repeatedly has declined to run and signed a letter endorsing Clinton. Everybody else—ambitious senators like New York's Kirsten Gillibrand and ambitious governors like the dark lord, Andrew Cuomo, also of New York—is sitting back and waiting and silently asking themselves that question, running it through their own silent hubris until it produces an answer.
45 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
If Not Hillary, Who? (Original Post) Maedhros Nov 2014 OP
Bernie!!!! Autumn Nov 2014 #1
Great guy. Can't win. Pipedream. Reality trumps. RBInMaine Nov 2014 #4
That's what they said of a black man Fearless Nov 2014 #7
the black guy a Democrat went in to the convention in 04 and kicked ass... Historic NY Nov 2014 #10
A Democrat playing the "socialist boogieman" card? Really?? Fearless Nov 2014 #20
No I'm playing the Democrat card.....Sanders doesn't have a chance... Historic NY Nov 2014 #22
You just played the "scary socialist" card again! Fearless Nov 2014 #23
doesnt scare us......he scares them VanillaRhapsody Nov 2014 #28
I seem to remember hearing that in... like 2007 2008? Autumn Nov 2014 #8
I seem to remember Obama was a Democrat at the time.... VanillaRhapsody Nov 2014 #11
Those very things were said about Obama, Autumn Nov 2014 #13
No they weren't....when he gave that speech at the Convention....pretty much everyone VanillaRhapsody Nov 2014 #14
+1 Historic NY Nov 2014 #21
Did you miss the 2007 2008 in my post? I'm sure you did. Autumn Nov 2014 #30
I don't care about your speculation....I care about facts on the ground...REALITY! VanillaRhapsody Nov 2014 #31
Okay, if you can prove candidate Obama never said the thing I posted Autumn Nov 2014 #32
I don't give a rats ass what you posted....I care about REALITY. VanillaRhapsody Nov 2014 #33
Maybe he can't win Prophet 451 Nov 2014 #15
Pope Francis hollowdweller Nov 2014 #44
Owl. Autumn Nov 2014 #45
the key quote DonCoquixote Nov 2014 #2
Wrong... brooklynite Nov 2014 #18
Nice. joshcryer Nov 2014 #24
Seriously? brooklynite Nov 2014 #35
That is an extraordinary reply. joshcryer Nov 2014 #37
Unlike a lot of the 1% bashing that goes on at DU.... brooklynite Nov 2014 #38
I don't take that "Third Way" bashing seriously. joshcryer Nov 2014 #39
That's a fair question... brooklynite Nov 2014 #40
Everyone is silently waiting because it's too damn early to declare. LawDeeDah Nov 2014 #3
Lousy campaigner? No. There will probably be some other candidates, but she'll get it. RBInMaine Nov 2014 #5
A Democrat of liberal leaning. Fearless Nov 2014 #6
Do you have a candidate that polls higher than all Republicans besides Hillary? VanillaRhapsody Nov 2014 #9
Hillary runs to Obama's right. And loses. blkmusclmachine Nov 2014 #12
anyone else polling better than ALL Republicans yet? VanillaRhapsody Nov 2014 #16
How about someone who isn't a Republican disguised as a Democrat? EEO Nov 2014 #17
How about someone that can WIN! VanillaRhapsody Nov 2014 #34
I'm voting for Biden. He's likable, charismatic, and is sitting VP. He's the alternative. craigmatic Nov 2014 #19
I suspect he won't run if Hillary does; brooklynite Nov 2014 #36
Brilliant essay. joshcryer Nov 2014 #25
Good question Prophet 451 Nov 2014 #26
2016 Obama - Biden Reformed Bully Nov 2014 #27
Kucinich lamp_shade Nov 2014 #29
Why is it Democrats are being asked this NOW? DFW Nov 2014 #41
I've been expecting Clinton/Castro TBF Nov 2014 #42
[see sig] Old Nick Nov 2014 #43

Historic NY

(37,449 posts)
10. the black guy a Democrat went in to the convention in 04 and kicked ass...
Fri Nov 14, 2014, 09:39 PM
Nov 2014

as a fresh up and coming. Bernie has been around for decades doing his own thing, as a socialist.

Historic NY

(37,449 posts)
22. No I'm playing the Democrat card.....Sanders doesn't have a chance...
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 01:26 AM
Nov 2014

to get the nomination as a Democrat (which he is not) . Perhaps if he runs at the socialist convention....

Fearless

(18,421 posts)
23. You just played the "scary socialist" card again!
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 01:39 AM
Nov 2014

He runs as an independent who caucuses with Democrats. He could join the party if he wished. Democrats would welcome him. Look around social media even and you'll see that liberal America at large would as well.

 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
11. I seem to remember Obama was a Democrat at the time....
Fri Nov 14, 2014, 09:40 PM
Nov 2014

do you think all Democrats are just going to bow down to a new comer even if he DOES become one?


indeed.

Autumn

(45,064 posts)
13. Those very things were said about Obama,
Fri Nov 14, 2014, 09:47 PM
Nov 2014

I don't ask anyone to bow to anyone but do keep pulling those silly things you like to rant about out of your... imagination.

 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
14. No they weren't....when he gave that speech at the Convention....pretty much everyone
Fri Nov 14, 2014, 10:31 PM
Nov 2014

said he had Presidential potential....AND he was a Democrat.

so it is YOUR imagination in question here...

Autumn

(45,064 posts)
30. Did you miss the 2007 2008 in my post? I'm sure you did.
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 10:11 AM
Nov 2014

I also didn't say he wasn't a Democrat. You sure do have a habit of going off on people about things they don't say, because I wasn't talking about what people said about him. I posted what candidate Obama said.

 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
31. I don't care about your speculation....I care about facts on the ground...REALITY!
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 10:13 AM
Nov 2014

and I care NOT to experience a Country where all three branches are controlled by Republicans. I won't waste a vote on a long shot! Certainly NOT this time.

Autumn

(45,064 posts)
32. Okay, if you can prove candidate Obama never said the thing I posted
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 10:17 AM
Nov 2014

I will admit to speculating. Does that work? I admire that you cherish your vote and will vote for whom you please. I will too, and I won't hold my nose to do so

 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
33. I don't give a rats ass what you posted....I care about REALITY.
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 10:19 AM
Nov 2014

and if you cannot vote for whom the Democrats themselves select...YOU are no longer one! Hello independent.


From the moment he gave that speech....there were speculations of a Presidential run...THAT is reality.

DonCoquixote

(13,616 posts)
2. the key quote
Fri Nov 14, 2014, 08:39 PM
Nov 2014
She has "cleared the field." That's what the smart people say. Without even announcing that she will run for president, Hillary Clinton has frozen the Democratic primary process. She has frozen the media's attention and the energies of the party's activists, and, most important of all, she has frozen the wallets of all the big donors, all of whom are waiting for her to jump to decide what they will be doing over the next two years.

Which also puts some of the blame on our recent Midterm fiasco on HER. Many people did not want to shell out to win the midterm, because they are saving up for 2016, and this also allowed the news media to focus on anything BUT the mid term!

brooklynite

(94,510 posts)
18. Wrong...
Fri Nov 14, 2014, 11:15 PM
Nov 2014

Complain all you want about our failures in the midterm, but availability of funds wasn't the reason. I shelled out $80,000 in this cycle, and I know a lot of people who did better than that. We'll all be able to step forward for Hillary when she runs.

brooklynite

(94,510 posts)
35. Seriously?
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 12:53 PM
Nov 2014

Let's put it this way. The first thing you'll do is call me directly; not send me a spam email. I'll have researched the prospective candidates so I'll know who else is considering running, what the voting profile is like, and what kind of candidate is likely to be competitive.

Second, you'll come and visit me personally in NYC. Now, I know that's something of a burden, but if Mark Udall was willing to do it, so should you. This'll give me a chance to get to know you personally, ask probing questions, and come to a stronger conclusion about whether you can win AND whether you need my help. The advantage of this however, is that I'll round up some acquaintances with equally deep pockets that you can pitch to.

Third, and perhaps most important, you won't get upset if I say "no"; because that's what I told Udall. When he met with me, his race was rated "Likely D" (ditto Jeanne Shaheen when she called me); I told him he was doing to well at the time and my resources were being targeted at more competitive races. However, I monitor developments closely, so when the races started to shift, I redirected some of my money to help him.

Does that answer your question?>

joshcryer

(62,270 posts)
37. That is an extraordinary reply.
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 11:54 PM
Nov 2014

I was joking, but wow, you make me want to consider it for reals rather than muse about a fantasy... you make it sound like getting the right connections isn't that terrible, even if it's moral support. That is surprising to me.

brooklynite

(94,510 posts)
38. Unlike a lot of the 1% bashing that goes on at DU....
Sun Nov 16, 2014, 12:08 AM
Nov 2014

...there are a large number of well-off people who support progressive and moderate candidates without a significant agenda or quid pro quo demand; we're happy to elect people who would raise our taxes to strengthen the social safety net; support women's rights; oppose irresponsible military action and are in favor of a safe environment. The key is supporting people who can actually win, whether that's Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts or "Third Wayer" Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire.

joshcryer

(62,270 posts)
39. I don't take that "Third Way" bashing seriously.
Sun Nov 16, 2014, 12:30 AM
Nov 2014

Not when Warren is as liberal as Udall, who, btw, I canvased and voted for, and who sadly lost, due to internal idiocy (and in part due to voter disenfranchisement). Udall was a good guy, had a lot to say about the NSA (which many DUer's should've supported him for) and the environment. I just can't take the conspiracy crap seriously at this point.

We need adults in the room.

Just to extend the hypothetical, if I did it I'd have to climb the ladder and do a Colorado General Assembly run first... do you actually concern yourself or do high doners (from other states) concern themselves with local races like that? I know Oligarchy United at least enables it for the Koch's... but it'd be interesting if you cared about lower races like that or what.

brooklynite

(94,510 posts)
40. That's a fair question...
Sun Nov 16, 2014, 11:39 AM
Nov 2014

I've found that a lot of people both here and in the funding community spend most of their time on Federal races. It can be very hard to understand local races and personalities for out of State legislative contests. That said, my wife and I recognize that we need to buttress our State House strength to build a firewall for 2022 redistricting, and to build up a resource of people for future Federal races. We've primarily supported the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) and some State Parties where we were comfortable that they knew what they were doing.

 

LawDeeDah

(1,596 posts)
3. Everyone is silently waiting because it's too damn early to declare.
Fri Nov 14, 2014, 08:41 PM
Nov 2014

There was a healthy lot in the primaries in 2008 and there will be another one in 2016. This media driven message for Hillary is not going to work and it is ridiculous especially when Hillary has proven that she is a lousy campaigner and hires lousy advisors. That is not going to strick fear in anyones heart, in fact it will do the opposite.

 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
9. Do you have a candidate that polls higher than all Republicans besides Hillary?
Fri Nov 14, 2014, 09:39 PM
Nov 2014

Last edited Fri Nov 14, 2014, 10:32 PM - Edit history (1)

talk to the hand until you do..

 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
34. How about someone that can WIN!
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 10:21 AM
Nov 2014

I for one do not want to know what R's controlling 3 branches of govt is like...even if it has one candidate that SOME people think is not Liberal enough for them.

However...I beg to differ

brooklynite

(94,510 posts)
36. I suspect he won't run if Hillary does;
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 12:54 PM
Nov 2014

If she doesn't and he does, he may be more competitive than most people imagine.

joshcryer

(62,270 posts)
25. Brilliant essay.
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 03:27 AM
Nov 2014

Thanks for sharing it.

Clinton cannot go unopposed. And she needs some serious liberal contenders to go up against her. Wyden, Sanders, Reich, Warren. Let it happen. Of course, she's more liberal than 3 of them, so let's see what happens.

Prophet 451

(9,796 posts)
26. Good question
Sat Nov 15, 2014, 03:32 AM
Nov 2014

I'm British so I don't get to vote in your elections. But leaving that aside, I like Bernie's ideas (and the USA desperately needs to get over the "free markets uber alles" attitude), I like Warren's fight and I have some reservations about Hillary (a bit too hawkish for my liking), partially based on Bill's presidency (his shameful gutting of welfare) which may be unfair to her.

DFW

(54,365 posts)
41. Why is it Democrats are being asked this NOW?
Mon Nov 17, 2014, 10:11 AM
Nov 2014

Where was Bill Clinton on the national radar in 1990?

Why not ask of the Republicans, "If not a maniac or a Bush, WHO?"

But no, they are all as Hillary-obsessed as half DU, it seems. I wish Democrats had been as Senate-obsessed two weeks ago.

TBF

(32,054 posts)
42. I've been expecting Clinton/Castro
Mon Nov 17, 2014, 12:07 PM
Nov 2014

for the past couple of years. They've taken him out of San Antonio and placed him in a cabinet position, he did his big speech at the convention etc.

I am still expecting that ticket, but what if she would pull out for health reasons or something like that? Would Julian Castro be a contender on his own? I know what he did for San Antonio and how very popular he is amongst Texans. Has any thought been given to this?

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