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So what are the most crucial US Senate races this year? (Original Post) lastlib May 2014 OP
All... 3catwoman3 May 2014 #1
Exactly!!!!!!!!!! DFW May 2014 #5
Begich is looking pretty good here, actually. Blue_In_AK Jun 2014 #8
Arkansas is critical. WhiteTara May 2014 #2
Offense or defense tabbycat31 May 2014 #3
Swing-state seats currently held by Republicans jmowreader May 2014 #4
GOTV! UCmeNdc May 2014 #6
I've met with every Dem in a critical race except for Pryor and Welland... brooklynite May 2014 #7
Did you mean Arkansas in your first sentence? Blue_In_AK Jun 2014 #9
Yes, sorry about that... brooklynite Jun 2014 #11
I have said and continue to say that we need to win either Georgia or Kentucy davidpdx Jun 2014 #10
There's no question that it will be closer than today FBaggins Jun 2014 #13
They are all critical SmittynMo Jun 2014 #12
Udall v Gardner (CO) needs to be watched. politicat Jun 2014 #14
South Carolina grkblood13 Jun 2014 #15
Vote them all out. Ds and Rs. bigwillq Jun 2014 #16

DFW

(54,049 posts)
5. Exactly!!!!!!!!!!
Thu May 29, 2014, 05:47 AM
May 2014

No loss of a seat in the Senate is trivial. We are probably looking at one or two, although we have a chance of a pickup or two as well. Former "lost causes" are no longer looking lost (Landrieu and Pryor, e.g.) and the chances for a pickup are looking batter (Grimes and Nunn, as has been mentioned elsewhere). I don't see holding onto Jay Rockefeller's seat in West Virginia, but I'd gladly sacrifice that to pick up both GA and KY and see Mitch McTurtle retired involuntarily.

Hagan and Begich have fights on their hands, but some serious groundwork can save their seats for us. I know that DFA is pooling every cent they can to send people to help on the ground with the races there, and I have sent Jim Dean what I could spare to help with expenses. They were our secret weapon in the VA governor's race, and they are as dedicated as anyone to the cause.

Blue_In_AK

(46,436 posts)
8. Begich is looking pretty good here, actually.
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 06:51 PM
Jun 2014

Dan Sullivan, who is likely to win the Republican primary, is getting hammered for some residency issues plus his close ties to Condoleeza Rice and the Bush administration. Mead Treadwell, our current lieutenant governor is boring as a piece of white bread toast, and Joe Miller? Obvious. There have been some rumors of She Who Shall Not Be Named stepping into the race, which would be an answer to prayers.

WhiteTara

(29,676 posts)
2. Arkansas is critical.
Sun May 25, 2014, 10:28 AM
May 2014

We are almost completely red and although Pryor is not so great, he is better than total red.

tabbycat31

(6,336 posts)
3. Offense or defense
Sun May 25, 2014, 08:16 PM
May 2014

Offense
Kentucky
Georgia

(others are possible depending on the primary outcomes)

Defense
Montana
West Virginia
North Carolina
Arkansas
Louisiana
Alaska

The states not mentioned that have senate seats up should be safe for the current party (again that could change due to primary outcomes--- there's a couple GOP seats that could be in play if another Todd Akin runs)

jmowreader

(50,447 posts)
4. Swing-state seats currently held by Republicans
Thu May 29, 2014, 05:25 AM
May 2014

The GOP has done nothing for this country since Obama was elected. I would REALLY like not only to hold the seats we have, but to flip a few GOP ones. I'm fairly confident we can take Kentucky and Georgia (especially if Jimmy Carter's grandson polls well), and I'd really like to have Maine and Tennessee.

On the other side of the coin, the most critical seat we have is Kay Hagan's in North Carolina. If she can hold her seat in the face of probably the best-funded GOP attack campaign this cycle, we should be able to hold them all.

brooklynite

(93,839 posts)
7. I've met with every Dem in a critical race except for Pryor and Welland...
Thu May 29, 2014, 07:25 AM
May 2014

Bottom line is we will probably lost three off the bat: SD, WV, AK.

That means the Republicans need to win three of the remaining, unless we have a pickup. GA is looking like best bet, KY a little less so.

Among the rest of the races, Begich (AK), Shaheen (NH), Peters (MI) and Braley (IA) will probably pull things out. The biggest challenge will be for Hagah (NC) and Landrieu (LA).

Blue_In_AK

(46,436 posts)
9. Did you mean Arkansas in your first sentence?
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 06:55 PM
Jun 2014

Begich is looking pretty good in Alaska. Kochs are spending a crazy amount of money here, but with Alaska being a small state and everybody knowing everybody else, their spending reaches a point of diminishing returns. They're not too popular up here right now anyway since they closed their Flint Hills Refinery in North Pole, leaving an environmental mess and a lot of unemployed people. Mark's ads hammer them by name.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
10. I have said and continue to say that we need to win either Georgia or Kentucy
Mon Jun 2, 2014, 02:49 AM
Jun 2014

if we want to keep control of the US Senate. Assuming we won one of those they'd need to pick off seven which would be hard. I think our margin in the Senate is going to be a lot closer then the current margin is.

I think the Republicans will try to dump a lot of money into Oregon to try to beat Merkley, but they are going to find it tough given the crazy person they nominated. Actually it might turn out to be good if the resources pulled from other states. I would give it until about Labor Day before they abandon their candidate and decide Merkley is going to win in a cakewalk.

FBaggins

(26,693 posts)
13. There's no question that it will be closer than today
Mon Jun 2, 2014, 09:48 AM
Jun 2014

There are only two red seats that are reasonably in play at this point... and three blue seats that we probably can't win (SD/MT/WV). So the best-case is a loss of a seat or two.

The good news is that we only need to hold a couple-seat majority in this cycle because 2016 will be held over much more attractive turf.

SmittynMo

(3,544 posts)
12. They are all critical
Mon Jun 2, 2014, 08:26 AM
Jun 2014

This time around, I think people have finally realized how important these elections are. The word is spreading, and I expect it will get pretty heated up when we get closer to the election. Over the past 4 years, it has become quite evident how f***ed up the GOP and the tea party have become. And the good news is he MSM has been broadcasting it. In my opinion, we need to get the word out to the younger crowd. They can make a big difference. I have told my children how important this is(both democrats). With social media, hopefully it will spread like wildfire. GOTV!!!

politicat

(9,808 posts)
14. Udall v Gardner (CO) needs to be watched.
Wed Jun 4, 2014, 08:00 PM
Jun 2014

I am not sure how much of an actual threat Gardner is (polls and warchest assessments seems to have Udall doing fine) but Gardner has Coors and oil money behind him and has mobilized the anti-abortion shock troops.

Personally, I think Gardner is 10 pounds in a five pound bag, but it's a purple state. While we've got most people on mail ballots now, some counties play games with the lists, and funny how they're always the counties most reliably reddish in hue. I will check to see what the polls do next week. Udall supported sacking Shinseki, and we have a lot of vets and active. I don't know how they'll respond. (We were pissed, but we're both far to the left Udall.)

We also have a lot of tech in the area, so the fact that Udall is tough on the intelligence community is helping, but the race is worth keeping in sight.

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