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Sun Apr 29, 2012, 11:02 PM

electoral-vote.com's first preliminary map of the season

...shows Obama with a decent lead. If he wins every state he's shown there as leading in, however slightly, he has 290 votes even if he loses every other state including the ones shown as "tied".
Their map computation method appears to be much simpler and less in-depth than, say, fivethirtyeight.com, and it's still very early, but I'll take this as an encouraging sign.
I don't think they've got everything completely set up yet, normally the running totals appear at the top as well as broken down on the side, but they're still question marks. Also, while both Iowa and Florida are shown as very slightly red-leaning at the moment, only Iowa is marked as a R pickup at the bottom. I guess everything will be up and running in awhile.
I wonder when fivethirtyeight will roll out their ever-changing map?

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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply electoral-vote.com's first preliminary map of the season (Original post)
Rochester Apr 2012 OP
Tx4obama Apr 2012 #1
crazylikafox Apr 2012 #2
Motown_Johnny Apr 2012 #4
jenmito Apr 2012 #6
DCBob Apr 2012 #3
Motown_Johnny Apr 2012 #5
DCBob Apr 2012 #8
jenmito Apr 2012 #7
ShadowLiberal Apr 2012 #10
DCBob May 2012 #11
Proud Public Servant Apr 2012 #9

Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 12:26 AM

1. Here's a link to an updated Intrade presidential electoral map

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Response to Tx4obama (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 09:29 AM

2. to many states with no data on this link.

South Carolina is a toss-up state? I don't think so.

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Response to Tx4obama (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:46 PM

4. Illinois as a toss up? Don't we all think Pres. Obama will win his home state?

If so then add 20 to that 250 and we are already at 270.

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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #4)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:58 PM

6. No-gray states mean there's no Intrade data. n/t

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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:40 PM

3. The map has been updated.



Strong Dem (187)
Weak Dem (52)
Barely Dem (51)
Exactly tied (33)
Barely GOP (45)
Weak GOP (94)
Strong GOP (76)

http://electoral-vote.com/

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Response to DCBob (Reply #3)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:54 PM

5. IA should also be on your list where he can get some of those 17

electoral votes


IA + CO + NH = 19



Basically, if we win all the strong (D) states we can afford to lose any one of the weak (D) states, as well as every other state, and still keep the White House.

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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #5)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 04:37 PM

8. Right you are, Johnny..

thanks!

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Response to DCBob (Reply #3)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:59 PM

7. That's the '08 results. n/t

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Response to jenmito (Reply #7)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 10:34 PM

10. No it's not, Obama won IA & FL in 08, and AZ wasn't near 50/50 split either

Also practically all of the polls are outdated that determine the color on that map, some of the polls are several months old in fact, so the results don't really mean much yet.

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Response to ShadowLiberal (Reply #10)

Tue May 1, 2012, 10:30 AM

11. It was the 2008 results yesterday. They just updated it.

cheers!

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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 04:47 PM

9. As others have said, that's not a 2012 map

It's just the 2008 map, color-coded to reflect relative party strength then (not now) and with numbers updates to reflect the redistribution of electoral votes after the 2010 census.

That being said, I think you can convincingly argue that the states that currently either strongly Dem or leaning Dem give Obama 247 votes (basically, the whole East Coast from DC to Maine, except NH; the 3 West Coast states; IL, WI, MI, and MN in the Midwest; New Mexico; and of course Hawaii). That's still a pretty good place to be, with multiple paths to 270.

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