Sun Apr 29, 2012, 11:02 PM

electoral-vote.com's first preliminary map of the season

...shows Obama with a decent lead. If he wins every state he's shown there as leading in, however slightly, he has 290 votes even if he loses every other state including the ones shown as "tied".
Their map computation method appears to be much simpler and less in-depth than, say, fivethirtyeight.com, and it's still very early, but I'll take this as an encouraging sign.
I don't think they've got everything completely set up yet, normally the running totals appear at the top as well as broken down on the side, but they're still question marks. Also, while both Iowa and Florida are shown as very slightly red-leaning at the moment, only Iowa is marked as a R pickup at the bottom. I guess everything will be up and running in awhile.
I wonder when fivethirtyeight will roll out their ever-changing map?

11 replies, 1751 views

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11 replies	Author	Time	Post
electoral-vote.com's first preliminary map of the season (Original post)	Rochester	Apr 2012	OP
Here's a link to an updated Intrade presidential electoral map	Tx4obama	Apr 2012	#1
to many states with no data on this link.	crazylikafox	Apr 2012	#2
Illinois as a toss up? Don't we all think Pres. Obama will win his home state?	Motown_Johnny	Apr 2012	#4
No-gray states mean there's no Intrade data. n/t	jenmito	Apr 2012	#6
The map has been updated.	DCBob	Apr 2012	#3
IA should also be on your list where he can get some of those 17	Motown_Johnny	Apr 2012	#5
Right you are, Johnny..	DCBob	Apr 2012	#8
That's the '08 results. n/t	jenmito	Apr 2012	#7
No it's not, Obama won IA & FL in 08, and AZ wasn't near 50/50 split either	ShadowLiberal	Apr 2012	#10
It was the 2008 results yesterday. They just updated it.	DCBob	May 2012	#11
As others have said, that's not a 2012 map	Proud Public Servant	Apr 2012	#9

Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 12:26 AM

Tx4obama (28,841 posts)

1. Here's a link to an updated Intrade presidential electoral map

Here: http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

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Response to Tx4obama (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 09:29 AM

crazylikafox (1,588 posts)

2. to many states with no data on this link.

South Carolina is a toss-up state? I don't think so.

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Response to Tx4obama (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:46 PM

Motown_Johnny (15,457 posts)

4. Illinois as a toss up? Don't we all think Pres. Obama will win his home state?

If so then add 20 to that 250 and we are already at 270.

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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #4)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:58 PM

jenmito (37,080 posts)

6. No-gray states mean there's no Intrade data. n/t

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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:40 PM

DCBob (14,765 posts)

3. The map has been updated.

Last edited Tue May 1, 2012, 10:29 AM USA/ET - Edit history (3)

Strong Dem (187)

Weak Dem (52)

Barely Dem (51)

Exactly tied (33)

Barely GOP (45)

Weak GOP (94)

Strong GOP (76)

http://electoral-vote.com/

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Response to DCBob (Reply #3)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:54 PM

Motown_Johnny (15,457 posts)

5. IA should also be on your list where he can get some of those 17

Last edited Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:55 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

electoral votes

IA + CO + NH = 19

Basically, if we win all the strong (D) states we can afford to lose any one of the weak (D) states, as well as every other state, and still keep the White House.

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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #5)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 04:37 PM

DCBob (14,765 posts)

8. Right you are, Johnny..

thanks!

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Response to DCBob (Reply #3)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 02:59 PM

jenmito (37,080 posts)

7. That's the '08 results. n/t

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Response to jenmito (Reply #7)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 10:34 PM

ShadowLiberal (2,124 posts)

10. No it's not, Obama won IA & FL in 08, and AZ wasn't near 50/50 split either

Also practically all of the polls are outdated that determine the color on that map, some of the polls are several months old in fact, so the results don't really mean much yet.

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Response to ShadowLiberal (Reply #10)

Tue May 1, 2012, 10:30 AM

DCBob (14,765 posts)

11. It was the 2008 results yesterday. They just updated it.

cheers!

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Response to Rochester (Original post)

Mon Apr 30, 2012, 04:47 PM

Proud Public Servant (796 posts)

9. As others have said, that's not a 2012 map

It's just the 2008 map, color-coded to reflect relative party strength then (not now) and with numbers updates to reflect the redistribution of electoral votes after the 2010 census.

That being said, I think you can convincingly argue that the states that currently either strongly Dem or leaning Dem give Obama 247 votes (basically, the whole East Coast from DC to Maine, except NH; the 3 West Coast states; IL, WI, MI, and MN in the Midwest; New Mexico; and of course Hawaii). That's still a pretty good place to be, with multiple paths to 270.

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