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Sun Apr 29, 2012, 10:42 AM

Demographics Favor Obama Over Romney in November Election

Demographics Favor Obama Over Romney in November Election
by Eleanor Clift
Apr 29, 2012 12:00 AM EDT

Millennials and minorities, who boosted Obama in 2008, are growing, while white working-class voters, Romney’s bread and butter, are declining. But those loyalties could shift in the coming years, analysts tell

It was no fluke four years ago that America elected its first black president, and the trends that helped Barack Obama make history are evident today in demographics that favor his reelection. Millennials, the most liberal generation, are increasing at the rate of 4 million a year; there were 48 million in ’08, there are 64 million today, and Obama won them by 66 percent. Minorities too are growing as a share of the electorate, and Obama won them last time by 80 percent.

After the disappointments of the last four years, it’s unlikely that Obama will match his ’08 margins with these demographics. But to win, he has to do well enough among millennials and minorities to compensate for his weakness among white, working-class voters, who were once the core of the Democratic base and now are the GOP’s bread and butter. “A real wild card is how many of them are going to show up,” said Ruy Teixeira, a joint fellow with the Center for American Progress. “He can win with 75 percent; if he gets 80, that doesn’t make him bulletproof,” but it does make him “a slight favorite, but he certainly could lose.”

More single people, secular people, and people with college degrees are all part of what Teixeira calls a “warming trend” toward Democrats. White, working-class voters, the group most resistant to Obama, were 28 percent of the electorate in ’08, and they’re down another 3 percent this year. But that’s a national number; in Ohio, a battleground state, they are 54 percent of the electorate. No Republican has won the White House without Ohio, so it’s not surprising that Republican Sen. Rob Portman, who has won statewide in Ohio, tops the list of prospective running mates for Mitt Romney.

The white working class is “plummeting” as a share of voters, said Teixeira, replaced by white college graduates and minorities. Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis lost white, working-class voters by 20 points and with them the 1988 election; Obama lost them by 18 points in 2008 but still won. “Even if Obama lost working-class whites by 23 points, he could still win the election because the country has changed so much,” said Teixeira. The demographic shifts mean Dukakis and John Kerry would win too if they were running in today’s electorate.



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Reply Demographics Favor Obama Over Romney in November Election (Original post)
babylonsister Apr 2012 OP
DCBob Apr 2012 #1
rrnusa Apr 2012 #4
DCBob Apr 2012 #5
zbdent Apr 2012 #2
Tarheel_Dem Apr 2012 #3

Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sun Apr 29, 2012, 10:46 AM

1. but they still have to show up to vote.

which I think they will. The President is still very popular and Rmoney would be a disaster for most Americans. That should translate in a good turnout.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #1)

Sun Apr 29, 2012, 02:04 PM

4. No


2010 says no they won't. Mood of the country says they won't. The painting of Obama's first term says they won't. He is counting on the wrong base while the base he can count on will set this one out now that Mitt and not one of the other crazy GOP's is their candidates. The Republicans did a good job at making Romney look good to moderates during the primary with all the kooks loosing.

Friends for me this is not about being fans of the Clinton's. This is about the realty that right now is the actual mood in this country. We can be real about it or we can be like the conservatives in 08 and stick to Sarah Palin wishful thinking plan only in our case its the Barack Obama wishful thinking plan.
How many states have put laws on the books about abortion, gays, immigration, faith in government, which are all hurting civil rights and are even re-defining the first amendment? How many times has faith crossed the line into civil laws in the states? More of these kinds of laws have been done SINCE Obama's election then was done BEFORE his election. This is because the Obama network can only focusing on the Federal offices. They do not have a network in place to be able to do anything else. That takes decades of hard work to create such a network and none in the Obama camp have done that. I am looking down the road at the next 4 years of across the board government in my country and going OH MY unless we find a solution we are going to see even worse laws get passed until they will be strong enough to be done on a national level.
The Clinton's have that network in place now with three Presidential campaigns behind them and decades of hard work but we need a rally point that will help all those state candidates. If Hillary announced, overnight you would see endorsements going back and forth for key governorship's, state legislatures and other local and federal offices. We could avert a red state country and turn it into a blue states country. This en-turn would even encourage the Republican Party leadership to abandon the tea party and tamper down the Christian Right. They want to so bad even now but the silent majority has not shown them cause to. Many are saying even now that Berry Goldwater was right about these people taking over our party. If we wait until 2016 there will be no shot for any of us including Hillary Clinton!
No matter if Mitt or Obama is elected it turns out the same on state level elections. So for me this is about stopping a teavanglist take over not a Hillary Clinton fan club or bitter still about 08 things. If there were an Obama network or another person network who could do what the Clintons could do in stopping that take over I would be writing for them. No one else has done the hard work over decades like the Clintons. I can’t think of another name besides Hillary Clinton that can give us what we absolutely must have right now to stop these people. If you can give me a better name I am all ears! The reality mood of this country says Barack Obama can't get it done, heck he will be lucky to just get himself re-elected let alone help anyone else. This is not a time to chill Hillary. Those laws are coming! That is unless we all find the courage do what it takes to harness the silent majority of the country for actionable results that can keep those laws from being presented

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Response to rrnusa (Reply #4)

Sun Apr 29, 2012, 02:19 PM

5. hehehe...

you forgot the winky face.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sun Apr 29, 2012, 11:40 AM

2. Here's how to be a minority in the USA and get to vote in November ...

put a Republican candidate bumper sticker on your car in the last few weeks (as you park) ... or wear a Repub button as you go to vote. Being a minority, they'd be happy to GIVE you one, so they could proudly flaunt their "diversity".

After the election, you can wipe your a$$ with it if you like.

You'd probably be less likely to be challenged at the polls ...

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