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Fri Apr 27, 2012, 09:50 AM

Obama pulls slightly ahead in crazy Rasmussen tracking poll

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Romney has been ahead for about the last ten days, but pulled ahead today. Personally, I think this poll is garbage.

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Reply Obama pulls slightly ahead in crazy Rasmussen tracking poll (Original post)
RDANGELO Apr 2012 OP
CreekDog Apr 2012 #1
grantcart Apr 2012 #2
JoePhilly Apr 2012 #3
Johnny2X2X Apr 2012 #4

Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Fri Apr 27, 2012, 09:56 AM

1. read this contradictory tidbit from their sampling methodology:

Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 36.1% Republicans, 32.8% Democrats, and 31.1% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.

Partisan affiliation is typically a key indicator in Presidential election years. Over the past 20 years, exit polls have shown the party identification numbers ranging from even to a 7 point Democratic advantage. The Democrats’ best year was 2008 while 2004 showed the best numbers for the GOP.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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Response to CreekDog (Reply #1)

Fri Apr 27, 2012, 11:11 AM

2. Exactly. All you need to know about Rasmussen is that they regularly over sample Republicans and

dramatically under sample Democrats.

Expect them to get more in line after September in order to salvage their public reputation.

I expect they make a lot of money by doing internal polling for Republican candidates in which they are brutally honest. This is kind of an advertising schtick to show campaigns how Republican they are, then they deliver the real news.

They couldn't survive in their business if their private polling was as skewed as their public polling is.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #2)

Fri Apr 27, 2012, 11:33 AM

3. YUP ... saw the same pattern in the 2008 election ... they always had it close, or

McCain was up ... then, around October, Obama suddenly has a 2 point lead, then 3, then 4 ... and by the last week ... Obama was up 6% in their polls.

The only polls anyone remembers are the ones in that last week.

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Fri Apr 27, 2012, 12:14 PM

4. Shaping

Rasmussen's goal isn't to gauge or report public opinion so much as to shape it. They are no different than pollsters for particular campaigns. They only adjust their results close to election time as to appear accurate, but the next 5 months will be blatant distortion of polls in order to boost Romney and motivate the GOP base.

The Romney bounce from winning the nomination is over, he'll fall behind a little more now before he get the bounce from picking a running mate. He's going to get embarrassed in the debates either way, so it's not like these polls matter either way right now.

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