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Thu Jun 13, 2013, 10:14 AM

NJ Special Election Could Hurt Democratic Voter Turn Out in October AND November

Yeah - I'm pretty ticked. We the tax payers of NJ are being asked to fund Republican Political games at a cost of up to $24 Million dollars.

Really trying to find the cost to JUST add a few names to the November ballot as opposed to doing everything from the print/mail of the Sample Ballot to finding Poll Workers 2 months in a row.

Any DU'ers in outside of NJ who have experienced this? I.E. Back to back elections? Are you in a defined by the media Red or Blue State? Real time experience?

I'm a GOTV'er and will volunteering on both the Gov and Senate race - as well as volunteering for my preferred primary candidate.

Chances of voter fatigue by us coming through several times?


The U.S. Senate race in October appears likely to result in even lower turnout, currently pegged at about 40% compared to a more typical 46% to 48% turnout. The Monmouth University Poll’s likely voter model is based on a combination of past voting history from voter registration files and self-reported intention to vote in either the October special election or the November general election.

The poll finds that Democrats are more likely to opt for voting in the October Senate race over November’s gubernatorial and legislative election. If forced to choose to vote in only one election, 73% of likely New Jersey voters say they would cast their ballot in the regular general election to 20% who prefer the special Senate election. Democrats (26%) are more likely than Republicans (14%) to choose the special election.

“Low turnout normally benefits a Republican, so the Democratic nominee will need a boost from supporters more interested in the Senate race to maintain the party’s normal edge in Garden State elections,” said Murray. “This could also translate to fewer Democratic voters in November, which will serve to pump up Gov. Christie’s already daunting lead.”

New Jersey voters, specifically those likely to show up at one or both of this fall’s elections, are not particularly happy with the governor’s decision to call a special election to fill the vacant Senate seat, he added. Just 30% of likely voters approve of this decision to 42% who disapprove, while 24% say it doesn’t really matter to them. Seven-in-ten likely voters (70%) say they have heard that this series of special elections could cost the state up to $24 million and 75% say that this cost bothers them. Only 18% are not bothered by the cost of running these extra elections. Nearly two-thirds of likely voters (65%) say it would be better to vote for U.S. Senate on the same day as the November governor’s election. Just 23% prefer holding the Senate ballot at a separate election.


Read more at http://www.politickernj.com/66395/monmouth-university-poll-christies-numbers-versus-bookers-numbers#ixzz2W6aTr66T
or sign up for a free trial of State Street Wire at http://www.politickernj.com/freetrial

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Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply NJ Special Election Could Hurt Democratic Voter Turn Out in October AND November (Original post)
JustAnotherGen Jun 2013 OP
Sunlei Jun 2013 #1
JustAnotherGen Jun 2013 #2
Sunlei Jun 2013 #4
JustAnotherGen Jun 2013 #7
ShadowLiberal Jun 2013 #15
JustAnotherGen Jun 2013 #16
tabbycat31 Jun 2013 #8
davidpdx Jun 2013 #3
tabbycat31 Jun 2013 #9
JustAnotherGen Jun 2013 #12
Mz Pip Jun 2013 #5
JustAnotherGen Jun 2013 #6
tabbycat31 Jun 2013 #10
JustAnotherGen Jun 2013 #11
tabbycat31 Jun 2013 #13
JustAnotherGen Jun 2013 #14

Response to JustAnotherGen (Original post)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 12:49 PM

1. can NJ votes vote early and by mail? one very easy to use website passed to all Democratic voters?

That's how republicans get all those early votes. I think they even gather the votes somehow *very early* and turn ballots in and/or mail when the date opens. Not sure about how that works or if that's exactly how Rs grabbed early votes in some states.

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Response to Sunlei (Reply #1)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 01:56 PM

2. Yes to both questions!



http://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/voting-information-vote-by-mail.html


Vote By Mail Applications
In New Jersey, any voter can now vote by mail in any election. You do not need a reason to Vote by Mail. Don't feel like going to the polls? Simply vote by mail. Now there is "no excuse" not to vote!

A voter may vote by mail by completing the Application for Vote by Mail Ballot (see below), and returning the application to their County Clerk.

To receive your ballot by mail, the application must be received by the County Clerk 7 days prior to the election.

A voter may also apply in person to the County Clerk until 3:00 p.m., the day before the election.

The County Clerk cannot accept faxed or emailed copies of a Application for Vote by Mail Ballot, unless you are a Military or Overseas Voter, since an original signature is required.



But it would still have to happen twice in two general elections held three weeks apart. I can't help but think that if this was a place like Wisconsin nationally folks would get worked up over this. Is everyone really THAT afraid of the our Governor? I'm not - I think he's a bully and a joke. But he's waved is scepter and said so be it - and us peons have to just take this waste of money. So irrirated.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #2)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 02:31 PM

4. It may be more efficent for Democratic persons in that state to get the apps and envelopes

right into the voter hands very early. I bet the state will provide the apps (to request a mail ballot) right to the dem. leaders who work on getting out the vote.

perhaps the apps can even be filled out over the phone, or in person anywhere GOTV people are working.

the apps '7 day before' is an issue that could exclude people. Maybe completed apps can be held and sent to County Clerk at the right time. The state should drop that 7 day thing.

Once people get their official mail-in ballot, I would think they would tend to vote.

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Response to Sunlei (Reply #4)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 03:10 PM

7. That's a really really good idea

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #2)

Mon Jun 17, 2013, 07:40 PM

15. The difference is the candidates, not the state

I don't think it's really the state being considered a blue state instead of a purple state like Wisconsin that's causing the lack of interest here. I think it's the candidates running.

Nate Silver did some analysis a week or two ago, and thinks Christie basically decided that there was no top or even second tier republican candidate who could beat Cory Booker or another democrat. Hence he did the next best thing, not take a big risk and losing some of his 'bi-partisan hero' image from hurricane sandy, and try to make sure Booker's turnout wouldn't hurt him.

And then in the governor's race, with Christie apparently being like 20 or 30 points ahead from what I've heard (haven't been reading polls), there's not much interest there either, because the national media has already written that race off to as Christie winning.

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Response to ShadowLiberal (Reply #15)

Mon Jun 17, 2013, 08:52 PM

16. Christie might be getting blocked!

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/06/groups_claim_to_have_found_smoking_gun_to_force_christie_to_move_senate_election_to_november.html#incart_river

Read that link from our local news . . .

The purpose of our STATE law implemented in 1915 when the 17th Amendment was passed at the Fed Level was to avoid unnecessary expenses in electing Reps and Senators.

We are talking three weeks - not 75+ days. Hopefully we can stop this monumental waste of money now.

Why does the media want Christie to win? That's rhetorical. . They want him in 2016.

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Response to Sunlei (Reply #1)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 03:12 PM

8. NJ has no fault vote by mail

It was first in effect in 2009 and typically the VBM numbers are pretty low. Since I have a legislative district spreadsheet in front of me (I'm in the process of calculating how many votes a state senate candidate needs to win). In this particular district (to which half of it was hit hard by Sandy last year and changed vote numbers), there are 128789 registered voters. Last year (peak of VBM so far) there were 8052 ballots cast by mail (overall turnout 69%). Sandy might have increased VBM last year. In non presidential years, the numbers have been 4532, 3850, and 2876 respectively (governor, congress, state senate at the top of the ticket). Usually Republicans have a VBM advantage. For a November election, typically VBM ballots will drop in mid-September.

The legislature passed early (in-person) voting this year but Christie vetoed it.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Original post)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 02:14 PM

3. They should be having the primary in late September

and then during the general election have the vote based on the party's nominees. Reasonably if both parties have the nominee they want then the low turnout won't matter much.

NJ should go to all vote by mail like Oregon and Washington.

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Response to davidpdx (Reply #3)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 03:13 PM

9. NJ's vote by mail numbers are pretty low

See my above post. I'm working on a state senate race (GOP incumbent, fairly red district), and I posted the numbers for the last 4 years (in this particular district since I have a spreadsheet with vote totals open).

The first year it went into effect was 2009 so you don't have the Obama excitement to drive up numbers.

ETA a primary in late September is too late. VBM ballots typically drop in mid-September, and can't be printed without the primary results first (there's a contested primary on both sides).

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Response to tabbycat31 (Reply #9)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 03:28 PM

12. Thanks tabbycat31

I think there is a 'social element' in Central NJ to voting too.

I just don't believe Christie has 'won it' before the race has even begun. He's already got two people willing to give him hell.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Original post)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 02:43 PM

5. The world is run by people who show up.

It really annoys me when I hear about an election that gets a 25% turn out.

You have to vote twice in a month? So do it. No whining. Turnout matters.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #5)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 03:08 PM

6. Have you been into

Newark or Camden/Trenton? I HAVE canvassed there.

It's easy to say - do it and shut up online. But I sit in my snug home in Somerville NJ with my car and six figure job.

I canNOT say that black woman to black woman to some a woman my age - barely getting by in Newark NJ. She doesn't have a car. Her job is not the job it was a few years ago if she has one. Oh - and have you seen what has happened here the past two years circa 10/31? Do you know how stressful it is to get around in the two main inner city areas of NJ post a freak severe snow storm or post Hurricane?


She's gonna look at me, and slam the door in my face after I tell her I live out in Somerville.


An even more bitter pill? I get to tell her - sorry your SNAP benefits have been cut but you know the Governor feels 10-24 MILLION Dollars spent on a 'special election' is more valuable than your children having a full stomache when they go to bed tonight.

I want you to step back and read what you wrote. Now question? How important is the minority vote to YOU as a liberal/progressive. Great - you all get your black Senator - but you can't get him FROM New Jersey without the black/hispanic/latino voters in the two major hubs. And I can't tell that voter to just 'suck it up'.


I reserve that for the rich people in Somerset and Hunterdon and Warren Counties.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #6)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 03:16 PM

10. +1

I'm working on a state senate race in NJ and I'm already having nightmares about GOTV (which is hard enough). Add getting people to vote twice in 3 weeks? Eek!

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Response to tabbycat31 (Reply #10)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 03:25 PM

11. Yeah!

What district if you don't mind me asking?

I'm just focusing on the Gov and Senate races. I'm extremely fearful that the sparkle and glitter will be gone come November and Buono won't have a chance. Point blank -she's no Corzine.

It's a numbers game for her to win. And I think we can turn Democrats against Christie. It may come at the expense of ANY unions that support him - but my feeling is . . . so be it.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #11)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 03:31 PM

13. I'll PM you details

Since I'm staff I don't want to divulge too much information on a public forum.

I worry about Buono too. I like her, I've met her several times, even gave her a rainbow feather boa at Asbury Park Pride two weeks ago when she asked me for it. I'm not sure if it's the state party, her, or her staff, but her campaign really should have taken off by now and I'm worried about it. (My conspiracy theory is Bob Buono would have received much more support).

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Response to tabbycat31 (Reply #13)

Thu Jun 13, 2013, 03:55 PM

14. I tend to agree with you

She's fabulous.

As much whining and crying and booing out of staters at DU have had for Christie these past few years -


They should know.

We have an amazing progressive but we are going to need national attention.

She's just amazing.

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