2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPOLL: Election 2012 - Is it over for Romney before it begun?
Vote: http://www.wepolls.com/p/9226353
Text excerpt:
am looking at an ABC poll released on Monday that show's President Obama's personal favorability rating at 64%, not the 41%, which is his overall job approval. Romney, who so aptly points out that he is currently unemployed, has no job to be approved of. Romney's personal favorability ratings are currently 35% favorable, 41% unfavorable.
Further, I think that personal favorability is a more key factor than what is given credit for. In 2004 President Bush's job approval rating was lower than Kerry's favorability. However, Bush's personal favorability was much higher than Kerry's which is why he was reelected.
Same goes for election 2012. Monday's Fox News poll showed that people think Obama is more likely to tell the truth, smarter, and more optimistic. Monday's ABC poll showed that Obama is more trusted to create jobs, protect the middle class, and is better on social issues. Romney only edged out Obama on the economy and deficit.
America's not going to elect the guy who they who they don't think is honest or smart, and who they don't believe will create jobs and keep the country safe, even if they think that guy will marginally handle the economy better. That's what Obama's personal favorability shows that his job approval doesn't.
Andy823
(11,495 posts)His job approval has a whole lot to do with republicans blocking everything he tries to get down to hep the country, the people and the economy. If the republicans weren't trying to make sure he is a "one term president", which they have admitted to, his job approval ratings would be much higher.
As for Romney, hell his how party can't stand him, and it seems like those who would be on top of his VP list, Rubio and Thune for example, don't seem to want the job. I think any of the republicans who plan on running in 2016 will turn him down, at least of they don't want to be on the losing ticket this year.
I think any of the republicans who plan on running in 2016 will turn him down...
Can't agree more. That's why he won't get a big ticket VP.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,355 posts)Having Romney as the GOP candidate is one of them IMHO.
Daniel537
(1,560 posts)Remember 2000 and 2004. Plenty of "its over" back then as well. Fortunately Romney's path to 270 is pretty narrow so unless there's some kind of unexpected disturbance in the force, the race is Obama's to lose.
Zadoc
(195 posts)And the only "it's over" moment in 2000 came when Florida was called for Gore, which was reversed hours later. The polling before election day had Bush winning the national popular vote. In 2004 we all knew it was coming down to the wire. The "it's over" moment came when Kerry lost Ohio.
Daniel537
(1,560 posts)to make the same mistake twice with Dubya. A couple of searches here on DU or at Daily Kos will get many of those types of comments.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I could not believe this country could re-electe that moron and war criminal. Its still boggles my mind.
Wolf Frankula
(3,595 posts)to the presidency. I remember 1980, and being confident the American people would never throw out an intelligent man like Carter for an imbecile like Reagan. We are still suffering from his actions. The money men want Willard. Be on your guard!
Wolf Frankula
Tarheel_Dem
(31,212 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)especially with all of the voter ID shit going on.
AlinPA
(15,071 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)liberal enough. Last time I saw that measured by cnn...it was 16% of the disapproval rate.
got to think this group would shift, at least in part, to actual votes.
lacrew
(283 posts)Simply because it shows the average of a number of polls, and you can see the historical movement of these polls. Right now it shows Obama +2.2...in a tightening race....and none of this 'they are just trying to keep it close' stuff, these polls are all over the map; and, the the average cannot possibly be a 'planned' number.
These polls don't mean too much, IMHO, until after the first debate. Both candidates can expect a 'convention bump'...but the first debate will be a coming out party for Romney...alot of people know very little about him; and, it will be a make or break moment for him.
But it certainly isn't over already...and it will be far from a landslide. It is not humanly possible to run a campaign as poorly as McCain did...so I anticipate it will be closer than last time.
Zadoc
(195 posts)Obama won't win as many states as in 2008, or as many votes, but it'll be a pretty crushing defeat for Romney.
AlinPA
(15,071 posts)a lot of volunteers and votes.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)If it's this close a week before the election, then I'll worry. It's simply too soon for doom and gloom or breaking out champagne bottles.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)in a dead even tie at 46%. Who're you going to believe? (hint, not CBS)
center rising
(971 posts)If this number is true, then Obama is up shits creek without a paddle.
WeekendWarrior
(1,437 posts)I don't think Bush's personal favorability had anything to do with winning in 2004. He stole that election just like he stole the previous one.
quaker bill
(8,223 posts)Gore beat Bush in the county where I live by 2200 votes. Kerry beat Bush in the county where I live by 1900 votes. Obama beat McCain in the county where I live by 85,000 votes. Kerry could not find his voters. I worked for the Gore and Kerry campaigns doing phone banking and gotv, my wife volunteered for Kerry for 3 months full time. I know what I am talking about because I was there.
Obama geocoded his voters and got them to the polls. He will do this again.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)in those horrible days after Nov 2004, there were so many here who were trying to
figure out what happened. There was a girl, with statistics background who was SO
close to figuring out the pattern of fraud. She had gotten it down to Gore's 2000
numbers plus a factor. The last time I read her post she said she was working
through more numbers. Never, ever heard from her again. I posted time and time
again, asking if anyone knew her or had heard from her. Nothing. This was someone
who posted all day everyday during that time. We were all glued to DU day and night.
I will always wonder what happened to her. Perhaps a fatal accident - coincidentally
on the night she was breaking the code?