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Sat Feb 23, 2013, 01:42 PM

2014 US Senate Election-Republican Held US Senate Seats that could flip under the right circumstance

GA(OPEN-Chambliss-R)- Barrow-D needs to run and become the Democratic nominee, Republicans need to nominate Broun-R or Gingrey-R and hope make sure nature takes its course.
ME(if Collins-R retires or loses in the GOP primary).
Vulnerable Democratic held US Senate Races are
AK(Begich-D)-Lean/Likely Democratic if Republicans nominate Joe Miller-R, Tossup/Lean Democratic if Republicans nominate Mead Treadwell-R. Republican primary voters are likely to nominate Miller-R.
AR(Pryor-D)-Lean Democratic- GOP challengers are going to be either Mark Darr-R,Steve Womack-R or Tom Cotton-R. All 3 are 2nd tier candidates- however the state is very anti Obama.
IA(OPEN-Harkin-D)-Lean/Likely Democratic if Republicans nominate Steve King-R, Tossup/Lean Democratic if Republicans nominate Tom Latham-R. Republican primary voters are likely to nominate King-R
LA(Landrieu-D)-Lean Democratic- GOP challengers are going to be either one of the LA Republican US Reps. Landrieu-D benifits from crossover appeal and the GOP nominee making alot of gaffes.
MT(Baucus-D)-(Baucus-D vs Daines-R)-Tossup, (Baucus-D vs Stapleton-R)-Lean Democratic. (Schweitzer-D vs Daines-R)-Lean Democratic. (Schweitzer-D vs Stapleton-R)-Likely Democratic. Schweitzer-D only runs if a top tier Republican ie Daines or Fox enters the race.
NC(Hagan-D)-Lean Democratic. First term incumbent in a purple red state.
SD(Johnson-D)- (Johnson-D vs Rounds-R)-Tossup/Lean Democratic. (Herseth-D vs Rounds-R)-Tossup/Lean Republican.
WV(OPEN-Rockefeller-D)-Senator elect Capito-R.

If 2014 is like 2010
Republicans will hold onto GA, pickup WV,SD,AK,MT,and NC.
If 2014 is like 2012
Democrats will pick up GA, lose WV, SD goes either way, Democrats hold onto AK,MT and NC.

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Reply 2014 US Senate Election-Republican Held US Senate Seats that could flip under the right circumstance (Original post)
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 OP
Ninga Feb 2013 #1
No Vested Interest Feb 2013 #2
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 #3
Ninga Feb 2013 #5
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 #6
SawxDem Feb 2013 #8
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 #9
Cha Feb 2013 #4
Doctor_J Feb 2013 #7

Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 01:47 PM

1. A strong female candidate such as former Cong. Betty Sutton could pick off Rob Portman-R OH.

Betty is the author of the "cash for clunkers" that helped the auto industry. She was gerrymandered and is a very viable and well spoken public servant.

Portman is a mealy-mouthed GOP hack and needs to GOOOOOOO.

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Response to Ninga (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 02:05 PM

2. Agree that Sutton would make good candidate

v. Portman, though she needs to be better known in southern Ohio.
She'll need good funding to introduce herself in areas where name-recognition needs boosting.

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Response to Ninga (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 02:19 PM

3. Portman(R-OH) is not up for re-election in 2016.

2016 gives Democrats the opportunity to get rid of Rubio-FL,Portman-OH,Toomey-PA,and Johnson-WI. Kirk-IL retires rather than face Michelle Obama-D,Lisa Madigan,or Sheila Simon.

2014 is going to be the last cycle where Democrats have to play defense.
2010- Republicans held onto KY and MO but picked up ND,IN,AR,MA,WI,PA,and IL. They conceded DE,NV,and CO by nominating unelectable candidates.
2012- Republicans lost MA,ME,and IN, held onto AZ and NV, only picked up NE. Democrats were able to hold onto ND,MT,WI,MO,VA,FL,NM,and OH.
2014- Republicans have to worry about GA-make sure they don't nominate Akin/Mourdock candidate, ME-hope Collins-R runs again.
Democrats are vulnerable in WV-(Capito-R)-Likely Republican, SD-(Rounds-R) Lean Republican, AK-(Treadwell-R)-Tossup/Lean Republican, IA-(Latham-R)-Tossup/Lean Democratic.
Red State Democratic incumbents in AR(Pryor-D) and LA(Landrieu-D) will win re-election due to Republicans nominating the most extreme candidate and the Clintons will be helpful to Pryor-AR and LAndrieu-LA.
The wildcard seats are MT and NC. A right Republican challenger could defeat Baucus-MT and Hagan-NC. However Democrats could hold onto MT with a Schweitzer-D replacing Baucus-D as the Democratic nominee.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #3)

Sun Feb 24, 2013, 05:53 PM

5. Portman was elected in 2010. He is up for re-election in 2016. nt

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Response to Ninga (Reply #5)

Sun Feb 24, 2013, 06:08 PM

6. I meant to say until 2016.

Since the Consumer Protection position is a semi cabinet position which expires when Obama leaves office in 2016- How about Sutton running for Governor in 2014 against Kasich and Codray running for the US Senate against Portman.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #3)

Tue Feb 26, 2013, 01:55 AM

8. You seem to be underestimating Begich

Begich has incumbency and is a moderate, and polling looks good for him, even against Treadwell. I'd say if anything this seat tilts towards him getting another term. Pryor could be in danger if Cotton runs, but I don't see him running. Plus he's smart enough not to make any gaffe.

Either way, Begich or no Begich, in 2016 Democrats have chances at picking up seats in AZ (pending McCain retiring), FL, IA (again, pending retirement), IL, KY, MO, NC, NH, OH, PA, and WI (best chances are with IL, NH if you run Hassan, PA, and WI, and IA if Grassley retires). If Hillary runs add AR, IN, and maybe even LA to the mix. If by some stretch of the imagination 2014 turns into 2010 and Democrats lose the senate, it will not only be back in Democratic hands, but back to close to 2010 or even 2012 numbers.

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Response to SawxDem (Reply #8)

Tue Feb 26, 2013, 04:46 AM

9. 2014 Democratic Incumbents who are going to face tough opposition.

Johnson-SD (facing Rounds-R)- could end up retiring- (Herseth-Sandlin-D is the only Democrat that has a 50-50 chance of holding onto the SD seat if Johnson-D decides to retire.) -2D after WV(OPEN- Rockefeller-D)- Capito-R.
IA(OPEN-Harkin-D) Braley-D vs Latham-R - Tossup/Democratic lean. Lets hope King-R wins the GOP primary.
Hagan-NC and Landrieu-LA are going to face generic Republican opposition. Either of them could end up losing in a 2010 like wave. -3/-4 D
Pryor-AR(against Darr-R or Cotton-R) - faces a tough race but will end up narrowly winning.
Begich-AK(against Treadwell-R)- narrowly wins.
Baucus-MT could face a tough primary against Schweitzer-D (Democratic Hold if Schweitzer-D is the nominee). (Baucus-D vs Stapleton-R) could be a Tossup in a 2010 wave. Baucus's role as Finance committee chair is a liability. -5D
Democrats hold onto open MI, MN(Franken-D) and CO(Udall-D) along with NH(Shaheen-D) and OR(Merkley-D).

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 02:24 PM

4. K&R thanks you NPolitics!

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Mon Feb 25, 2013, 11:15 AM

7. Very frightening

no matter how stupid or psychopathic a candidate the R's nominate, (s)he always is competitive in GlenBeckistan.

You think we're ever going to do something about hate Radio?

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