2014 US Senate Election (Most Vulnerable to Least Vulnerable)

[NPolitics1979]

Last edited Fri Feb 22, 2013, 08:05 AM - Edit history (2)

Democratic held seats.
Lean Republican
WV(OPEN-Rockefeller-D) Capito-R
Tossup/Republican
SD(Johnson-D) Rounds-R
Tossup/Democratic
LA(Landrieu-D)
MT(Baucus-D)
NC(Hagan-D)
Lean Democratic
AR(Pryor-D)
AK(Begich-D)
IA(OPEN-Harkin-D)Braley-D
Likely Democratic
MI(Levin-D)
MN(Franken-D)
CO(Udall-D)
NJ(OPEN-Lautenberg-D)Booker-D
NH(Shaheen-D)
OR(Merkley-D)
MA(Markey-D)
Solid Democratic
VA(Warner-D)
NM(Udall-D)
HI(Schatz-D)
IL(Durbin-D)
DE(Coons-D)
RI(Reed-D)


Democrats lose Open seats in WV and SD.

[NPolitics1979]

1. 2014 US Senate Election -Republican held seats.

GA(OPEN-Chambliss-R) Broun-R vs Barrow-D
KY(McConnell-R) vs Judd-D
ME(Collins-R)
NE(OPEN-Johanns-R) Heineman-R
MS(Cochran-R)
SC(Graham-R)
TX(Cornyn-R)
SC(Scott-R)
TN(Alexander-R)
AL(Sessions-R)
KS(Roberts-R)
ID(Risch-R)
OK(Inhofe-R)
WY(Enzi-R)

[NPolitics1979]

2. Would it be great if Judd(D-KY) wins while Baucus(D-MT) and Pryor(D-AR) get voted out?

Democrats currently hold 55 senate seats including Sanders-VT and King-ME.
They are likely to lose WV(OPEN-Rockefeller-D)-Capito-R and SD(Johnson-D)Rounds-R. -2D
Looking at the other Romney state Democratic held seats up for grabs in 2014, Democrats hold onto NC(Hagan-D) and LA(Landrieu-D)- Thanks to Emily's List.
AK(Begich-D)
Open seats in IA and MI remain in the Democratic collumn.

[sofa king]

3. It's a long ways away, though.

I think all we can say for (nearly) certain is that at least two prurient scandals will rock the Senate before the election (it happens every year, now). The political landscape will certainly change by then in some unpredictable way.

But we can make some predictions. Those scandals which we can now practically depend on will lean predominantly Republican because Republicans lean predominantly toward corruption.

The Democratic Party will have a massive investigative advantage because it controls the Senate and President Obama, now in his second term, is no longer prevented from pursuing prosecutions of Bush-era malfeasances. For example, the Department of Justice can now dust off the two years' worth of writings by Jack Abramoff, provided to the FBI during the Bush years, and run down every Senator remaining in Congress who participated in Abramoff's enormous crime-net, with the cooperation of the Senate Ethics mechanisms. In the meantime, it's all Rep. Issa can do to keep the lid on his own corrupt leadership in the House. He can't defend his fellow Senators.

The ultimate object is a net five pickups. I guarantee you there are five Republican Senators sitting on scandals that can take them completely out of the running before November, 2014, if the Democrats choose to go that route. From a law enforcement perspective, some of those investigations must be pursued because they touch on espionage and international terrorism, and they probably kicked off in January. Whether they will ever be publicly acknowledged depends on whether the Dems think they can clean house without the Republicans resorting to... extralegal means, as they are wont to do.

It's a dangerous game to play, because criminals don't have to play by the rules, but it's one I think we could win.

[NPolitics1979]

4. Nominating extreme candidates is the reason why Republicans have a tough time regaining

Control of the US Senate.
Republicans guide to regaining control of the US Senate is holding onto GA,KY,and ME, and win Democratic seats in Romney states.
WV(OPEN-Rockefeller-D) Capito-R
SD(Johnson-D) Rounds-R
AK(Begich-D) Parnell-R or Treadwell-R
NC(Hagan-D) loses to a non controversial GOP challenger in a GOP wave.
MT(Baucus-D) Assuming Schweitzer-D does not run.
IA(OPEN-Harkin-D) Latham-R or Reynolds-R.
Republicans will end up nominating Joe Miller-AK and Steve King-IA.
Democrats are likely to hold onto AR(Pryor-D) and LA(Landrieu-D)