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Thu Feb 21, 2013, 08:20 AM

Nate Silver: Democrats early favorites to hold Senate

Nate Silver has issued his first set of projections on the 2014 Senate races — and while his early “best guess” is that Democrats hold the upper chamber, Republicans could come close to capturing the majority.

Republicans need to take six seats to grab control, and they’ll have conditions in their favor, with 21 of the 35 seats in this cycle currently held by Democrats, including several in states which usually lean red. For now — and it is very early, with candidates still to be determined and possibly divisive primary battles ahead — Silver sees the GOP gaining 4.6 seats.

Silver emphasizes that this is a best guess and not based on a statistical formula. But he writes on his Five Thirty Eight blog that this takes into consideration the kind of factors which will be rolled into his forecast — a forecast which has been nearly flawless in the last two presidential campaigns.

In this projection, he ranks each seat as safe, likely or leaning to each party, or calls it toss-up. Silver has only moved one seat — retiring West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller’s — from blue to red, calling it a likely Republican pickup.

http://www.salon.com/2013/02/21/nate_silver_democrats_early_favorites_to_hold_senate/

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Response to Redfairen (Original post)

Thu Feb 21, 2013, 08:38 AM

1. i disagree that WVA is a rep pick up

when was the last time WVA had a rep senator?

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Response to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 21, 2013, 10:22 AM

3. The last Republican elected to the Senate was W. Chapman Revercomb in 1956

in a special election after the death of the sitting senator. He served until 1959. Revercomb was also the last Republican to serve a full term in the Senate, from 1943 to 1949.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Chapman_Revercomb

West Virginia is heavily Democratic in voter registration, but if Shelley Moore Capito is the Republican nominee, as she probably will be, she will have to be a favorite - maybe a heavy favorite. On the other hand, if she were to be successfully teabagged in the primary, we would probably hold that seat fairly easily.

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Response to bornskeptic (Reply #3)

Thu Feb 21, 2013, 01:07 PM

5. lets hope they nominate a lunatic.

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Response to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #1)


Response to Redfairen (Original post)

Thu Feb 21, 2013, 08:41 AM

2. Meh. I love Nate Silver but without data, he has no more credibility than the next person

I followed Nate Silver during the election because he is a statistician and not a pundit. This early, he has nothing but conventional wisdom, just like everybody else.

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Response to Orangepeel (Reply #2)

Thu Feb 21, 2013, 10:29 AM

4. We don't even have candidates yet

Who gets nominated to run makes ALL the difference in the world. Sen. Claire McCaskill was dead in the water until Todd Akin got the nomination.

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Response to Orangepeel (Reply #2)

Thu Feb 21, 2013, 01:48 PM

6. Agreed. And it's way too early. Anything can happen, and Nate ought to know that a few

days is an eternity in poliTRICKS.

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Response to Orangepeel (Reply #2)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 03:36 AM

12. True

And we don't know who might retire or have end up involved in a scandal before then (hopefully not a D).

I do agree with Nate that Merkley will probably win reelection, but I think it will have more to do with substance than the Republicans not coming up with jack shit for a candidate (though in Oregon that is the truth).

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Response to Redfairen (Original post)

Thu Feb 21, 2013, 03:15 PM

7. Not good enough. We need a larger majority and the House too. n/t

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Response to FSogol (Reply #7)

Thu Feb 21, 2013, 03:52 PM

8. Yes. And it's scary because more of our seats will be on the line. n/t

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Response to FSogol (Reply #7)

Thu Feb 21, 2013, 07:35 PM

11. It's extremely difficult for the president's party to pick up majorities in the mid-terms

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Response to davidn3600 (Reply #11)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 07:10 AM

14. The GOP is doing their best to help us achieve our goal.

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Response to Redfairen (Original post)

Thu Feb 21, 2013, 05:40 PM

9. Democratic Held Seats in 2014.

Seats not expected to be competitive.
DE(Coons-D) 35D
HI(Schatz-D) 36D
IL(Durbin-D) 37D
MA(Markey-D) 38D
NM(Udall-D) 39D
OR(Merkley-D) 40D
RI(Reed-D) 41D
VA(Warner-D) 42D
Potentially competitive.
CO(Udall-D) 43D
MI(Levin-D) 44D
MN(Franken-D) 45D
NH(Shaheen-D) 46D
NJ(OPEN-Lautenberg-D) 47D
Competitive but lean Democratic.
AK(Begich-D) 48D
AR(Pryor-D) 49D
IA(OPEN-Harkin-D) 50D
LA(Landrieu-D) 51D
MT(Baucus-D) 52D
NC(Hagan-D) 53D

Tossup
SD(Johnson-D) vs Rounds-R 54D

Likely Republican
WV(OPEN-Rockefeller-D) Capito-R
Republican Held Seats.
Democrats need to win GA(Barrow-D) and KY(Judd-D) +1D
ME(Hoping Collins-R is not the GOP nominee) +2

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Response to Redfairen (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 03:52 AM

13. I think our best hope

for Democrats to keep the Senate and gain (maybe win) the House is for Republicans to keep doing what they're doing.

They seemed to have learned nothing from 2012 - in fact, they're doubling down on their obstructionism.

They're not fast learners. So let's keep teaching 'em a lesson.

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Response to RudynJack (Reply #13)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 08:54 AM

15. BINGO! -great post- nt

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