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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 03:31 PM

2014 US Senate Elections. 1978,1984,1996 and 2002 Class US Senators.

1978
Baucus(D-MT),Cochran(R-MS) and Levin(D-MI). Cochran-MS and Levin-MI are potential retirements, Baucus-MT could potentially lose in November General Election based on high unpopularity.
1984
Harkin(D-IA) and Rockefeller(D-WV) are retiring, McConnell(R-KY) could lose re-election to Ashley Judd.
No one left from class of 1990
1996 Class.
Sessions-AL,Roberts-KS,Inhofe-OK and Enzi-WY are running again and are likely to win re-election.
Durbin-IL and Collins-ME are potential retires but could win re-election if they run again.
Landrieu-LA is running again but could potentially lose.
Johnson-SD is likely to retire or lose to Rounds in the November General Election.
2002.
Chambliss-GA and Lautenberg-NJ are retiring.
Graham-SC is trying to survive in the GOP primary.
Cornyn-TX and Alexander-TN are likely to return.

If Baucus-MT and Levin-MI were to leave the US Senate next year.
The next in line to be President Pro Temp is Mikulski-MD,then Reid-NV,then Feinstein-CA,and Boxer-CA, then Murray-WA. Leahy-VT,Mikulski-MD,Reid-NV,and Boxer-CA are up for re-election in 2016. Leahy,Mikulski,and Boxer are potential retires, Reid-NV could lose re-election. Feinstein-CA is not up for re-election until 2018 but could end up retiring.

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Reply 2014 US Senate Elections. 1978,1984,1996 and 2002 Class US Senators. (Original post)
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 OP
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 #1
davidpdx Feb 2013 #2
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 #3
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 #4

Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Feb 16, 2013, 04:02 PM

1. New US Senate Committee chairs for the next Congressional Session.

HELP-Harkin-IA is leaving.
Mikulski-MD is unlikely to leave the powerful Appropriations, and Murray-WA is unlikely to leave the powerful Budget.
Sanders-VT is next in line to chair HELP.
Veterans Affairs (Sanders-VT) goes to Brown-OH.
Commerce-Rockefeller-WV is leaving.
Boxer-CA is unlikely to give up EPW,
Nelson-FL is next in line to chair Commerce.
Aging(Nelson-FL) goes to Casey-PA.
Banking- Johnson-SD has a 50-50 chance of leaving.
Reed-RI is next in line to chair Banking.
Armed Services- Levin-MI has a 50-50 chance of leaving.
Reed-RI could take Banking,Nelson-FL could take Commerce, McCaskill-MO is next in line.
Foriegn Relations-if Menendez-NJ is forced to leave.
Boxer-CA or Cardin-MD.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #1)

Sun Feb 17, 2013, 07:31 AM

2. Some of those are based on the assumption that a senator with more seniority would not give up

their current assignment. Johnson Reed, Nelson, Cardin, and Casey are 21st, 22nd, 29th, 46th, and 49th respectively in seniority. I would think some of those with higher seniority would be offered the positions out of respect before the ones you listed.

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Response to davidpdx (Reply #2)

Sun Feb 17, 2013, 08:41 AM

3. Some of those senators are 2nd ranking members of other assignments.

Johnson-SD the current chair of the Banking could retire from the US Senate or lose re-election to Rounds-R.
Reed-RI is next in line to chair Banking if Johnson-SD were to leave the US Senate.
Reed-RI also can take the Armed Services if Levin-MI were to leave the US Senate.
Johnson-SD is more likely to be forced out of the US Senate than Levin-MI, Reed-RI takes Banking.
Nelson-FL is next in line to chair Commerce after Boxer-CA who currently chair Environment Public Works. If Boxer takes Commerce instead of EPW. The next in line to chair EPW is Baucus-MT-Finance,Carper-DE-Homeland Security,or Cardin-MD.
Baucus-MT is highly unlikely to give up his position on Finance.
If Carper-DE gives up Homeland Security for Environment, then Pryor-AR takes Homeland Security.
Cardin-MD is next in line for Foriegn Relations after Boxer-CA and Menendez-NJ.

Assume both Levin-MI and Johnson-SD were to retire from the US Senate next year.

Reed-RI takes Armed Services.
Schumer-NY takes Banking.
Feinstein-CA take Rules.
Udall-CO takes Intelligence.
or
Reed-RI takes Banking.
Nelson-FL takes Armed Services.
Casey-PA takes Aging.
Cantwell-WA takes Commerce.
Tester-MT takes Indian Affairs.


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Response to davidpdx (Reply #2)

Sun Feb 17, 2013, 11:48 AM

4. Democrats had a majority in the US Senate since 2007.

The longest serving Committee chairs are
Levin-MI (Armed Services) is potential retiree in 2014. Next in Line is Reed-RI.
Boxer-CA (Environment)
Baucus-MT (Finance)
Leahy-VT (Judiciary)

Commitee chairs leaving the US Senate next year.
Harkin-IA(HELP) and ,Rockefeller-WV(Commerce) are retiring from the US Senate.
Levin-MI(Armed Services) is likely to retire.
Johnson-SD (Banking) could lose re-election to Rounds(R-SD)
Menendez-NJ (Foriegn Relation) is forced to resign due to scandal.
Landrieu-LA (Small Business) loses re-election to Boustany(R-LA)

HELP- Sanders-VT since Mikulski-MD is unlikely to give up Appropriations and Murray- WA is unlikely to give up Budget.
Brown-OH takes Veterans Affairs.
Commerce- Nelson-FL since Boxer-CA is unlikely to give up Environment.
Casey-PA takes Aging.
Reed-RI takes Armed Services.
Schumer-NY takes Banking.
Durbin-IL takes Rules since Feinstein-CA is unlikely to give up Intelligence.
Cardin-MD takes Foriegn Relations.
Cantwell-WA takes Small Business.
Tester-MT takes Indian Affairs.

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