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Thu Feb 14, 2013, 10:00 AM

A 2016 Tea-Party Presidential Candidate

Inside the cozy enclaves of GOP bonhomie—hunkered at the tables of see-and-be-seen Washington restaurants—Republican leaders are sourly predicting a party-busting independent presidential bid by a tea-party challenger, like Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., in 2016.
To them, the GOP apocalypse looms larger than most realize. Dueling State of the Union rebuttals and Karl Rove’s assault on right-wing candidates are mere symptoms of an existential crisis that is giving the sturdiest Republicans heartburn.
And yet, the heart of the matter extends beyond the GOP. My conversations this week with two Republican officials, along with a Democratic strategist's timely memo, reflect a growing school of thought in Washington that social change and a disillusioned electorate threaten the entire two-party system.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/republican-leaders-worry-their-party-could-divide-in-two-20130214

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Arrow 6 replies Author Time Post
Reply A 2016 Tea-Party Presidential Candidate (Original post)
Mojo2 Feb 2013 OP
WCGreen Feb 2013 #1
brooklynite Feb 2013 #4
davidpdx Feb 2013 #6
Cyrano Feb 2013 #2
Progressive dog Feb 2013 #3
LiberalFighter Feb 2013 #5

Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 10:09 AM

1. Why that wont happen is because multi-party systems are tailored for a parliamentary system

of coalition building and distribution of power were as a two party state is winner takes all.

The coalitions are built within the two party system. From time to time, one of the two party's will implode and reform pulling in more special interest groups to build a majority.

Shared democracy keeps those coalitions on the outside while a winner take all system incorporates them within the two party's.

on edit. When that happens in the US, it is called a realigning election which just means the players move from one party to another when the music stops. The best example in modern times was when busing to integrate schools came on line in the late 60's and early 70's that expedited the white flight from urban centers to the suburbs. The Republicans became the law and order party, meaning we will protect you from the colored people, and everything shifted. It's happening again as the racial divide is not as relevant as it was in the 70's thru the late 90's. 9/11 just prolonged the realignment.

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Response to WCGreen (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 12:17 PM

4. Yes but...

The implosion is usually triggered by an active third party (nb - NOT a fluke "Independent candidate" Presidential campaign), that draws off support from one of the major parties and then forces a realignment/merger. Consider the success of the Populist movement in the 1880's, resulting in a merger with a realigned Democratic Party.

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Response to WCGreen (Reply #1)

Fri Feb 15, 2013, 07:56 AM

6. It would be hard for them to get on all (or most of) the states ballot

but not impossible. Gary Johnson made the ballot in most of the states in 2012. I actually hope they do run a 2nd Republican to split the vote.

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Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 10:14 AM

2. Go for it tea baggers

All it will do is split the vote between those who are crazy and those who are crazier. It will mean a sure win for the Dems.

Remember Ross Perot? He wasn't as crazy as today's nuts, but he split the GOP vote and helped Clinton win the White House -twice.

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Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 10:35 AM

3. Yay

I would bet that the Te-archists make up more than half of Repugs.
So who gets the Repug name?

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Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 02:31 PM

5. How many votes will he get?

Hope he gets on the ballot in Texas, Indiana, Arizona.

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