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Wed Feb 13, 2013, 02:28 PM

2014/2016/2018 US Senate Election.

2014
Republican Takeover
SD(OPEN/Johnson-D)Rounds-R
WV(OPEN/Rockefeller-D)Capito-R
other Democratic held seats that have a 50-50 chance of flipping are AK(Begich-D vs Sullivan-R) and NC(Hagan-D vs Berry-R)
Democratic Retention.
AR(Pryor-D vs Darr-R)
CO(Udall-D vs Norton-R)
IA(Braley-D vs King-R)
LA(Landrieu-D vs Cassidy-R)
MI(Peters-D vs Miller-R) Levin-D retires.
MN(Franken-D vs Bachmann-R)
MT(Baucus-D vs Stapleton-R)
NH(Shaheen-D vs Sununu-R) Shaheen-D wins re-rematch.
NJ(Booker-D vs Kean-R)
53D 47R.
2016
Democratic Takeover.
AZ(OPEN/McCain-R)Napolitano-D
FL(Rubio-R)Wasserman Schultz-D
GA(OPEN/Isakson-R)Barrow-D
IL(Kirk-R)Hynes-D
IA(OPEN/Grassley-R)Culver-D
MO(Blunt-R)Nixon-D
NH(Ayotte-R)Kuster-D
NC(Burr-R)Cooper-D
OH(Portman-R)Cordray-D
OK(OPEN/Coburn-R)Henry-D
PA(Toomey-R)Kane-D
WI(Johnson-R)Barca-D
65D 35R
2018
Republican Takeover.
MT(Tester-D vs Daines-R)
ND(Heitkamp-D vs Cramer-R)
Democratic Takeover
AZ(Flake-R vs Sinema-D)
NV(Heller-R vs Horsford-D)



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Reply 2014/2016/2018 US Senate Election. (Original post)
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 OP
unblock Feb 2013 #1
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 #2
davidpdx Feb 2013 #5
DrToast Feb 2013 #3
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 #4
davidpdx Feb 2013 #6

Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Wed Feb 13, 2013, 02:32 PM

1. i certainly hope i'm wrong, but i fear your 2016 predictions might be a liiiiittle bit optimistic...

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Response to unblock (Reply #1)

Wed Feb 13, 2013, 03:11 PM

2. 2016 US Senate Election Prediction.

McCain(AZ) has to retire. Napolitano-D runs, Giffords-D recovers from her injuries and runs.
Rubio(FL) has a 50-50 chance of losing to Wasserman Schultz-D or Grayson-D
Isakson(GA)-gets teabagged in the GOP primary. Barrow-D follows the path of Donnelly(IN 2012). 2016 environment is more Democratic Friendly than in 2014.
Kirk(IL)loses.
Grassley(IA) has to retire, either Vilsack-D or Culver-D runs.
Blunt(MO)-faces Nixon-D who is term limited from seeking a third term as Governor.
Ayotte(NH) is likely to race Kuster-D, Hassan-D is likely to suceed Shaheen-D in 2020. Porter-D stays in the US House- NH-1 is more vulnerable to a GOP takeover. The race is a tossup.
Burr(NC) is likely to face Cooper-D or McIntyre-D- The race is tossup.
Portman(OH) is likely to face Cordray-D- The race is tossup.
Coburn(OK)is retiring. DEMS win if Henry-D runs and Republicans nominate a crazy person that self destructs.
Toomey(PA)loses.
Johnson(WI)loses.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #2)

Wed Feb 13, 2013, 07:28 PM

5. Whoops wrong place

Moved the reply under the original post

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Wed Feb 13, 2013, 04:31 PM

3. 2012 was supposed to be a Republican takeover

Instead we gained seats.

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Response to DrToast (Reply #3)

Wed Feb 13, 2013, 05:16 PM

4. 2012

Democrats held onto
MO- Legitimate .... Or Non Legitimate... McCaskill-D would have defeated Akin-R or Steelman-R.
MT- Tester-D survived against Rehberg-R.
ND- Heitkamp-D defeated Berg-R.
WI- Baldwin-D defeated Thompson-R.
Democrats picked up
IN- Seat would remained in the GOP column had Lugar won the GOP nomination.
ME- OPEN seat, Democrats united behind King-I.
MA- Brown-R was going to lose.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Wed Feb 13, 2013, 07:30 PM

6. I don't think McCain will run for reelection in 2016

In fact I think there is a strong possibility that he steps down and Brewer would name the replacement. This would give whomever Brewer named a leg up on the 2016 election without having to run for the seat in a special election.

http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate.aspx

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