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Tue Feb 12, 2013, 04:12 AM

2014 US Senate Election-Good Year for Democrats.

Red State US Senate Seats held by Democrats.
WV is most likely to go Republican because it is an open seat and Republicans have a top tier candidate-Capito-R, had Rockefeller-D decided to run again, seat could have stayed purple/blue.
SD is in the Tossup category-Top tier Republican- Rounds-R but could lean Republican if Johnson-D retires. Herseth-D will have a tough time following Heitkamps lead because Rounds is much stronger than Berg.
Begich(D-AK) has a high single or double digit lead over Treadwell,Miller,or Palin.
Pryor(D-AR),Landrieu(D-LA),Baucus(D-MT) and Hagan(D-NC) are faced with 2nd tier Republican challengers.
Democrats will hold onto open seats in MA-Markey, IA-Braley,and potential open seats in NJ-Booker and MI-Peters-D.
Purple State Democratic incumbents like Udall-CO,Franken-MN,Shaheen-NH,Udall-NM,Merkley-OR,and Warner-VA are favored to win re-election.

Democrats pick up ME-If Collins retires, GA-a top tier Democrat runs against crazy Broun-R, and KY-Judd-D taking down McConnell-R.

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Reply 2014 US Senate Election-Good Year for Democrats. (Original post)
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 OP
Tom Rinaldo Feb 2013 #1
NPolitics1979 Feb 2013 #2

Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Tue Feb 12, 2013, 09:29 AM

1. That's pretty much the best case scenario

Someone like Begich is at least as likely to lose as McConnell.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 12, 2013, 11:46 AM

2. 2014 AK vs 2014 KY.

2014 AK US Senate Election GOP POLL- Harper.
Begich-D has a 10 point lead over his likely GOP opponent- Lt Governor Mead Treadwell-R. (44-34). He leads leads Miller-R by 23 points (52-29), He leads Palin-R by 7 points (47-40) and trails Parnell-R by 6 points (40-46).
A Democratic PPP poll showed Begich-D leading Sullivan-R by 6 points (47-41).

2014 KY US Senate Election. DEM Poll. PPP.
McConnell-R has a single digit lead over Judd-D(47-43),Fischer-D(46-41),or Grimes-D(47-40).

Both Begich(D-AK) and McConnell(R-KY) are likely to win re-election.

Democrats will end up with a loss of 2 seats.
WV and SD.
Republicans hold onto all of their so called vulnerable seats. GA,KY,and ME.
53D 47R
2016
The vulnerable Democratic held seats are
CO(Bennet-D) and NV(Reid-D) are both likely to win re-election due to Presidential Coattails. The Democratic nominee for POTUS is favored to carry CO and NV.
Republicans are vulnerable in
IL-Kirk-R, WI-Johnson-R, and PA-Toomey-R.
56D 44R.

2018
The vulnerable Democratic held seats are
MT and ND. but they can pick up AZ and NV.

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