New Poll: Obama opens 13-point lead over Mittens in Colorado

[WI_DEM]

Barack Obama's opened up a 13 point lead on Mitt Romney in Colorado at 53-40. He's gained 11 points in the state since December when he led just 47-45.

The formula for Obama's gains is the same in Colorado as it is everywhere. He's getting more popular and Romney's getting less popular. In December only 45% of voters approved of the job Obama was doing to 50% who disapproved. Now he's on positive ground with 50% giving him good marks to 47% who think he's doing a poor job. The main thing that's changed is Democrats really rallying around him. In December he was at 76/18 with them, but now it's 89/8. The party is getting a lot more unified as the election comes closer.

Romney's headed in the other direction. His net favorability has gone from -18 (35/53) to an even worse -29 (31/60). Romney had a healthy amount of appeal to Democrats earlier with 20% viewing him favorably but that's now down to 11%. And he's extremely unpopular with independents at 25/65.

In the head to head between them Obama leads Romney by 26 points with independents at 57-31. And Romney's now getting just 7% of the Democratic vote, down from 14% on our December poll. This is the trend we're seeing in most states- the primary campaign has caused much of Romney's crossover support to evaporate and it's also making him lose ground with independents.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/04/obama-leads-romney-by-13-in-colorado.html

[jenmito]

1. K&R but I worry that once Rove's Crossroads Super PAC gets finished attacking and smearing Obama,

his positive numbers might go down and his negatives up. I really hope all the attack ads won't hurt him, but they usually work.

[Marsala]

9. Presidents have the greatest immunity to attack ads of any politician

Most people's minds are already made up, and swing voters tend to tune attack ads out. Negative ads are most effective in primaries, since it's a decision among similar candidates.

[jenmito]

13. Good points. Thanks for making me feel better.

[Esse Quam Videri]

2. Interesting. We do have a lot of Mormons out here.

Hopefully they won't be able to save Mittens.

[WI_DEM]

4. Colorado has 139,887 or 2.78% of the population who are Mormons. My guess

is that most of them vote GOP and went heavily for McCain last time as well. Oregon and Washington actually have a higher percentage of Mormon's than Colorado.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints_membership_statistics_(United_States)

[CobaltBlue]

3. Colorado is a new bellwether state

Barack Obama's opened up a 13 point lead on Mitt Romney in Colorado at 53-40.

In 2008, Barack Obama won Colorado in a Democratic pickup. Its results were closely connected to the national outcome. Obama won the state by 8.95%, which was 1.69 above his popular-vote margin, over John McCain, of 7.26%. Colo. was the only state where the gender vote percentages, for President Obama, matched the national result: 56% females and 49% males.

It's likely Colorado will be in the column for the winner of 2012. If Obama wins re-election and takes the state by 13 percentage points, that means he's probably getting a popular-vote margin of victory over Mitt Romney (today, Rick Santorum is out!) between 12 and 14 points. (Expand it to 11 and 15 percentage points, if Colo. isn't crossing all t's and dotting all i's.)

[WI_DEM]

5. doubtful this 13-point lead will stand. I think Obama will win CO but not by that much

[Robbins]

8. Probally

I expect his margain of victory will be closer to 2008.

Consider this.If Obama wins the Kerry States plus Nevada,New Mexico,and Colorado he wins the election.Romney could actully win
Ohio,Florida,Virginia,and NC and lose election.Now I am not saying that Is what I think will happen.Obama Is doing well In states he
won except for Indiana.Remember Obama and his allies can run ads too.Romney now has to face a serious competent opporent.

[LeftofU]

6. As Denver goes, Colorado goes.

As long as the Feds don't fuck with our revenue stream(marijuana),we'll be solidly blue.

[MissMarple]

12. Oddly, El Paso County can help swing Colorado blue, as well.

We can't win the county yet, but we are making modest inroads with a state rep and the senate majority leader.

We won't go Obama county wide, but I'll be interested to see how we fall out.

[CobaltBlue]

16. Republican El Paso County (2004 and 2008)

In 2004, George W. Bush won Colorado's El Paso County (Colorado Springs) by about 34 percentage points.
In 2008, John McCain carried El Paso County by about 19 percentage points.

The 2004/2008 voting shift in El Paso County was about 15 percentage points towards the Democrats and Barack Obama.
The state of Colorado carried in 2004 for Bush by 4.67%. Obama flipped it in 2008 by 8.95%. That was a shift of D+13.62.

El Paso County evidently felt less enthusiastic about McCain. But that's probably not the entire story.

[Daniel537]

7. Not too surprising considering that CO was one of the few states to buck the Tea Party trend

in 2010. At this point its fair to say its in the D column.

[DCBob]

10. This signficant because CO is a true swing state now and bellweather.

Lots of indies there. Very good sign indeed.

[denem]

11. The important takeaway is Romney's 60% unfavorable.

Even a SuperPac of negative advertising can't fix that.

[Hawaii Hiker]

14. And the 72-17% lead Obama has over Romney w/voters under 30

It will be pretty hard for Obama to lose that base w/a lead like that...Unless Obama reinstates the draft and takes all the draftees from Colorado, Obama should win the <30 group handily, along with the female vote, Hispanic vote, African-Americans, etc....

[Greywing]

15. Nothing would make me prouder of my state than

playing a part in a President Obama re-election.