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Sat Jan 26, 2013, 11:30 PM

2014 US Senate Election

Senators who have not decided whether they are running again or retiring.
Durbin(D-IL)- If Durbin runs again, he crushes either Joe Walsh,Bobby Schilling,or Bob Dold, If Durbin retires- The likely Democratic Nominee will be Sheila Simon or Dan Hynes. Hynes is more likely to run for the Kirk seat in 2016.
Collins(R-ME)- If Collins runs again and survives the primary-she is strongly favored to win the general election, If Collins loses in the primary, The race will be a Tossup. If Collins retires-Democratic favored unless Eliot Cutler-I runs.
Levin(D-MI)- If Levin runs again, he is strongly favored to win, If Levin retires, Tossup but Gary Peters-D is likely to win.
Cochran(R-MS)- If Cochran runs again-he is strongly favored to win, If he retires-he will be succeeded by either Haley Barbour-R or Gregg Harper-R.
Lautenberg(D-NJ)-gets replaced by Cory Booker-D
Johnson(D-SD)- Tossup race against Rounds-R, Rounds-R vs Herseth Sandlin-D-Lean GOP Takeover.
Senators who are leaving
Chambliss(R-GA)- Likely Republican retention- Sonny Perdue-R,Jack Kingston-R or Tom Price-R,etc.
Harkin(D-IA)- Likely Democratic retention- Tom Vilsack-D or Bruce Braley-D
Rockefeller(D-WV)- Likely Republican takeover- Shelly Moore Capito-R.
Senators who are running again but are facing a tough re-election.
Begich(D-AK) will have to sweat it out against Sean Parnell-R.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Jan 26, 2013, 11:38 PM

1. Levin-MI?

What if Richard Snyder runs?

That scares the shit out of me, whether Levin runs, or especially if he retires.

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Response to longship (Reply #1)

Sat Jan 26, 2013, 11:52 PM

3. Isn't Snyder-R very unpopular?

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #3)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 12:07 AM

5. Snyder will presumably run for re-election as Governor (nt)

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #3)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 12:19 AM

6. He's dirt among the Dems.

But he said he wasn't going to run for another term as Gov. Heaven only knows what his aspirations are. All I know is that he lied through his teeth about his political agenda. Many Dems voted for him because of that. I didn't because I saw through him.

I was right.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Jan 26, 2013, 11:49 PM

2. Lautenbergs getting old- I could imagine Booker

Some people say he could run for president. Personally I only see him going so far as senate- but its early.

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Response to metroliner (Reply #2)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 12:03 AM

4. I also see Booker topping out as a Senator.

I think he should take Christie on for Gov. Would be epic. Running for Senate might be preferable to that slugfest.

Welcome to DU!

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Response to ellisonz (Reply #4)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 08:24 AM

9. Booker can run for both Governor and Senator.

Governors race is 2013, Booker-D can run against Christie-R perform a respectable race -lose by a high single/low double digit margin. Then in 2014- When the senate race is up for grabs-Lautenberg announces his retirement-Booker-D takes over.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 06:59 AM

7. Thanks for the list

My guess is Begich will run again. Whether he wins or not, who knows.

I am sorry to hear about Harkin retiring. I hope Levin and Collins take a walk.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 07:25 AM

8. Is anyone else annoyed with the fact that there are already 2 Democratic retirements for 2014?

And that there may be more to come?

I realize some of them have been there for a long time, but it's risky to have so many open seats at one time. In 2012 we were lucky and got bad candidates running for the Republicans and ended up keeping all the Democratic seats except for Nebraska, but we can't expect the same thing to happen again in 2014.

Rockefeller retiring is one thing, but I was very disappointed to hear that Harkin is going too. And Johnson may join the list this Spring.

Obama & Harry Reid should make it clear to the Senate Democrats that only those who have health reasons for retiring should retire in 2014. All others must put their party & country first and stay for another term.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #8)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 09:09 AM

10. While I understand Reid's concern, the two men have been Senators since 1985

They will have completed 5 terms in office - 30 years! As to health, only they know what their health is and what toll being good Senators - and both are - entails. In Rockefeller's case, he would definitely face a tough campaign.

I think both are owed thanks for the work they have done.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #8)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 02:57 PM

15. Republican US Senators up for re-election.

Roberts(KS),Cochran(MS),and Inhofe(R-OK) are in their late 70's -reaching their 80th birthday after the 2014 Election. The big question with those US Senators is do they want to leave office when they are in their 80s.
A retirement in all 3 of those seats will start a conversation about
KS- Sebelius(D-KS) was suppose to run in 2010 but accepted the HHS position under the Obama administration. Sebelius would have a tough time winning the 2010 GOP wave. In 2014- Republican brand is unpopular, The Dole/Kassenbaum wing of the Republican Party is being pushed out of the Republican Party, Sebelius appealing to these voters along with holding onto her Democratic base.
MS- Mike Moore(D-MS),Hood(D-MS),Taylor(D-MS) and Childers(D-MS). Moore(D-MS) took a pass at running for Governor in 1995 against Fordice-R (Fordice won re-election over Molphus-D who was the state Secretary of State), 1999 Governor Race-Moore deferred to Musgrove-D (then LT Governor-ended winning the 1999 Governors race over Republican Mike Parker-R), Moore stepped down as MS AG in 2003. He took a pass at running for Governor in 2007 against Haley-R, Lotts's old US Senate seat in 2008(he deferred to Musgrove-D) and 2011 Governor-neither him or his successor Jim Hood decided to run for Governor in 2011 against Bryant-R, Hood-D has an easier chance taking on Bryant in 2015, The Republican brand will alienate every AA voter by 2015. Childers-D and Taylor-D are former Rightwing Conservative Democratic Congressmans that lost in the 2010 wave.
OK-Henry-D will be the Democratic version of Lingle(HI).
McConnell(R-KY),Alexander(R-TN) and Enzi(R-WY) are in their early 70s.
McConnell(R-KY) wants to be Senate Majority Leader in 2015 so he will run again. Democrats have plenty of candidates that could give McConnell-R a competitive race.
Alexander(R-TN) -Democratic bench in TN is weak, unless Alexander-R faces a tough primary challenge allowing Jim Cooper to run.
Enzi(R-WY)- Lummis-R vs Freudenthal-D. Lummis-R wins.

Other Republican seats up for grabs in 2014.
Sessions(R-AL) is part of the 1996 class along with Enzi(WY),Roberts(KS),and Collins(ME). How effective are Ron Sparks-D or Bobby Bright-D.
Graham(R-SC)- vulnerable in the GOP primary. There are two US Senate races in SC in 2014, Jim Hodges(D-SC) has to decide if he wants to run against Graham or Scott.
Cornyn(R-TX)- How effective is Chet Edwards.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 10:21 AM

11. 2014 US Senate Election.

Democratic Held Seats.
Democratic incumbents strongly favored to win re-election.
CO(Udall-D)- State is trending blue and Suthers-R is the only Republican other than Owens-R that could give Udall a race.
DE(Coons-D)- Republican bench in DE does not exist.
HI(Schatz-D)- wins the 2014 Special Election by a double digit margin over Lingle-R or Djou-R.
MN(Franken-D)- Likely Republican opponent is Michelle Bachmann-R (MN prefers Ed Schultz/Rachel Maddow over Bill O'Reilly/Sean Hannity).
MT(Baucus-D)- The only Republican that could or could not give Baucus a tough race is Racicot, but he is highly unlikely to run(Racicot could have ran against Baucus in 2002-when Bush/Cheney/Rove were in charge. Rehberg-R and Hill-R lost highly competitive statewide elections in 2012.
NH(Shaheen-D)- Republican candidates like Sununu,Guinta,or Bass are weak performers, LaMontagne is too Rightwing, Merrill is old news.
NM(Udall-D)- The only Republican that could give Udall a competitive race is Lt Governor Sanchez-NM's Rubio/Cruz- Udall-D is favored to defeat Sanchez-R by a double digit margin.
OR(Merkley-D)- With the exception Smith and possibly Walden, Republican opposition is weak.
RI(Reed-D)- Republican bench in RI does not exist. Except for Carcieri and Almond.
VA(Warner-D)- McDonnell is more likely to seek the GOP nomination for POTUS in 2016 then challenge Kaine-D in 2018, Cucinelli assuming he loses the 2013 Governors race will end up at Liberty University.
Democratic Incumbents favored to win but could suprisingly face a tough race.
AR(Pryor-D)- Darr and Womack are lightweights compared to Huckabee and Hutchinson-both are not running. State is trending red.
LA(Landrieu-D)- Landry,Fleming,and Cassidy are the Akin's of LA but state is trending red.
NC(Hagan-D)-purplish red state but Republican field-Ellmers,McHenry,etc are too Rightwing.
Democratic Incumbent who is in a Tossup race but could end up getting re-elected.
AK(Begich-D)- defeats Miller-R but Treadwell-R is going to be tough.
Democratic Held US Senate Seats on the watch list.
IL(Durbin-D)- Wins re-election by a landslide margin if he runs again, If Durbin retires- Sheila Simon vs Joe Walsh, Simon-D wins.
MA(Markey-D)-Assuming he wins the 2013 Special Election, Markey-D is strongly favored to win in 2014, The wildcard is Brown-R in the 2013 Special Election,-Brown-R narrowly wins the 2013 Special(Hope that does not happen like in 2010)- Brown-R will be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent again in 2014.
MI(Levin-D)- likely to announce his retirement. (Peters-D vs Miller-R) Lean Democratic hold.
NJ(Lautenberg-D)- likely to announce his retirement. Senator Booker-D.
SD(Johnson-D)- Johnson-D vs Rounds-R is a Tossup. Herseth Sandlin-D vs Rounds-R is a Lean Republican Takeover.
OPEN Democratic Seats.
IA(Harkin-D)- Democratic field (Vilsack-D or Braley-D) defeats (King-R or Latham-R).
WV(Rockefeller-R) Moore Capito-R vs Rahall-D, Lean/Likely Republican Takeover.

Republican seats that need to be watched.
GA(OPEN Chambliss-R) if Jim Marshall or John Barrow runs on the Democratic side.
KY(McConnell-R) if Judd does not run, but endorses Lundergran Grimes.
ME(if Collins-R retires or gets Teabagged in the Primary)- A top tier Democratic nominee (Pingree-D,Michaud-D or Baldacci-D)
MS(if Cochran-R retires or gets Teabagged and either Moore,Hood,or Taylor seeks the Democratic nomination)

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 11:08 AM

12. Why is the ME seat a toss up if Collins loses a primary and D favored if she retires?

I would think that a republican replacement for a retiring Collins would be better able to assume her cloak of moderation for the general than would somebody who beats her in the primary. So I would have guessed the seat would be more likely to flip if she loses than if she retires.

I know little about ME politics, but I was under the impression that it was generally a center left state (and that the current governor was a fluke). What don't I know?

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Response to Orangepeel (Reply #12)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 01:10 PM

14. Top Tier Democrats like Pingree,Michaud,and Baldacci are more likely to jump in the race if

Collins announces her retirement. Outside of Collins,Snowe,and Cohen, Moderates don't exist in ME. How credible is little Jim Longley.
A Republican primary between Collins-ME and Conservative Teabagger is a Tossup but Collins could survive for practical reasons. The Democrats will end up with 2nd tier candidates and a strong Independent candidate runs.

Lets look at the 2010 DE US Senate Race and 2012 IN US Senate Race as example.
DE- Castle-R was suppose to be a front runner to win Biden's old seat. Biden Jr was returning from Iraq, seek re-election as AG than run in 2014 when Castle-R announces his retirement, Carney decides to run for the US House to suceed Castle, Democrats were stuck with County Executive Chris Coon. Castle-R lost in the Republican primary to the more controversial conservative Christine O'Donnell. The Conservatives in ME are more fiscal conservative than social. O'Donnell's problem is that she was an outspoken conservative on social issues.
IN- Lugar-R was going to face a primary challenge against Rightwing Mourdock-R. The establishment Republicans Daniels and Coats could have done everything to save Lugar but Daniels has his eyes on 2016 GOP Nomination for POTUS. Donnelly-D was the only Democratic US House Member outside of the Indianapolis/Gary area that survived the 2010 GOP wave. Republicans were going to gerrymander Donnelly's US House seat as expected. Donnelly-D decided to run for the US Senate, loses a respectable race to Lugar-IN or runs a hard fought Tossup race against Mourdock. Add the gaffes Mourdock makes-Donnelly accidentally becomes US Senator.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Jan 27, 2013, 12:24 PM

13. US Senate Seniority list 1/2015

1)Leahy(D-VT)
2)Hatch(R-UT)
3)Baucus(D-MT)
4)Grassley(R-IA)assuming Levin(D-MI) and/or Cochran(R-MS) retires.
5)McConnell(R-KY)
6)Mikulski(D-MD)
7)Shelby(R-AL)
8)McCain(R-AZ)
9)Reid(D-NV)
10)Feinstein(D-CA)
11)Boxer(D-CA)
12)Murray(D-WA)
13)Inhofe(R-KS)
14)Wyden(D-OR)
15)Roberts(R-KS)
16)Durbin(D-IL)
17)Reed(D-RI)
18)Landrieu(D-LA)-between MO 2012 and AR 2010.
19)Sessions(R-AL)
20)Enzi(R-WY)-assuming Collins retires or gets Teabagged.
21)Schumer(D-NY)
22)Crapo(R-ID)
23)Nelson(D-FL)
24)Carper(D-DE)
25)Stabenow(D-MI)
26)Cantwell(D-WA)
27)Murkowski(R-AK)
28)Graham(R-SC)
29)Alexander(R-TN)
30)Cornyn(R-TX)
31)Pryor(D-AR)
32)Burr(R-NC)
33)Coburn(R-OK)
34)Thune(R-SD)
35)Isakson(R-GA)
36)Vitter(R-LA)
37)Menendez(D-NJ)
38)Cardin(D-MD)
39)Sanders(I-VT)
40)Brown(D-OH)
41)Casey(D-PA)
42)Corker(R-PA)
43)McCaskill(D-MO)
44)Klobuchar(D-MN)
45)Whitehouse(D-RI)
46)Tester(D-MT)
47)Barrasso(R-WY)
48)Wicker(R-MS)
49)Udall(D-CO)
50)Udall(D-NM)
51)Johanns(R-NE)
52)Shaheen(D-NH)
53)Warner(D-VA)
54)Risch(R-ID)
55)Hagan(D-NC)
56)Merkley(D-OR)
57)Begich(D-AK)-survives a tough race against Treadwell-R or defeats Miller-R.
58)Bennet(D-CO)
59)Gillibrand(D-NY)
60)Franken(D-MN)-had it not been for Coleman-R contesting the results, Franken-D will be ahead of Merkley(OR).
61)Manchin(D-WV)
62)Coons(D-DE)
63)Kirk(R-IL)
64)Coats(R-IN)
65)Blunt(R-MO)
66)Moran(R-KS)
67)Portman(R-OH)
68)Boozman(R-AR)
69)Toomey(R-PA)
70)Hoeven(R-ND)
71)Rubio(R-FL)
72)Johnson(R-WI)
73)Paul(R-KY)
74)Blumental(D-CT)
75)Lee(R-UT)
76)Ayotte(R-NH)
77)Heller(R-NV)
78)Schatz(D-HI)
79)Scott(R-SC)
80)Baldwin(D-WI)
81)Flake(R-AZ)
82)Donnelly(D-IN)
83)Murphy(D-CT)
84)Hirino(D-HI)
85)Heinrich(D-NM)
86)King(I-ME)
87)Kaine(D-VA)
88)Cruz(R-TX)
89)Warren(D-MA)
90)Fischer(R-NE)
91)Heitkamp(D-ND)
92)Markey(D-MA) sworn in 7/2013 or 1/2015. been in US House since 1976.
93)Capito(R-WV) in US House since 2000
94)Price(R-GA) in the US House since 2004.
95)Braley(D-IA) in the US House since 2006
96)Peters(D-MI) in the US House since 2008
97)Harper(R-MS) in the US House since 2008.
98)Pingree(D-ME) in the US House since 2008.
99)Rounds(R-SD) former Governor.
100)Booker(D-NJ)

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