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Fri Apr 6, 2012, 02:17 PM

Digging deeper: Good News in the March unemployment numbers!

First of all, the fall in headline unemployment to 8.2 is real,
and not a result of discouraged workers leaving the labor market.

U4 - which includes discouraged workers fell from 8.9 to 8.7 percent

U6 - which includes underemployed workers, fell most of all, 14.9 to 14.5 percent.

So, employers are putting temporary and part time workers on full time,
which a the typical pattern in a recovery.

Put on temps when the situation begins to pick up,
then full time when the improvement looks sustainable.

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Reply Digging deeper: Good News in the March unemployment numbers! (Original post)
denem Apr 2012 OP
Arkana Apr 2012 #1
denem Apr 2012 #3
aint_no_life_nowhere Apr 2012 #2
denem Apr 2012 #4

Response to denem (Original post)

Fri Apr 6, 2012, 02:32 PM

1. What was the rate last month? 8.3 or 8.5? I can't remember.

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Response to Arkana (Reply #1)

Fri Apr 6, 2012, 02:47 PM

3. 8.3 Jan, 8.3 Feb,

After discouraged workers took up new jobs in these months, the rate is trending down again, and those jobs are becoming permanent.

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Response to denem (Original post)

Fri Apr 6, 2012, 02:45 PM

2. They were commenting on the numbers on MSNBC

First, all the new jobs came from the private sector and no new hiring is going on in the public sector. When both private and public start expanding together, the numbers will look better. Next, they mentioned something strange: retail sales are way up but retail hiring is very flat. If retail sales continue to improve, retail hiring increases are inevitable.

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Response to aint_no_life_nowhere (Reply #2)

Fri Apr 6, 2012, 02:55 PM

4. The Holiday Season makes retail the hardest to estimate.

All the headline numbers are seasonally adjusted, so it's difficult to know whats going on out there.

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