Digging deeper: Good News in the March unemployment numbers!

[denem]

First of all, the fall in headline unemployment to 8.2 is real,
and not a result of discouraged workers leaving the labor market.

U4 - which includes discouraged workers fell from 8.9 to 8.7 percent

U6 - which includes underemployed workers, fell most of all, 14.9 to 14.5 percent.

So, employers are putting temporary and part time workers on full time,
which a the typical pattern in a recovery.

Put on temps when the situation begins to pick up,
then full time when the improvement looks sustainable.

[Arkana]

1. What was the rate last month? 8.3 or 8.5? I can't remember.

[denem]

3. 8.3 Jan, 8.3 Feb,

After discouraged workers took up new jobs in these months, the rate is trending down again, and those jobs are becoming permanent.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

2. They were commenting on the numbers on MSNBC

First, all the new jobs came from the private sector and no new hiring is going on in the public sector. When both private and public start expanding together, the numbers will look better. Next, they mentioned something strange: retail sales are way up but retail hiring is very flat. If retail sales continue to improve, retail hiring increases are inevitable.

[denem]

4. The Holiday Season makes retail the hardest to estimate.

All the headline numbers are seasonally adjusted, so it's difficult to know whats going on out there.